NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead

[Full-Auto]

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead - First Read

Another dem push poll. Can we expect oversampling? Why yes, they didnt offer those figures meaning they have........

 

[8537]

And, one can also find out the approximate percentages by engaging in some polling ON THAT VERY TOPIC.

That's a great idea!

This poll does exactly that.

No. It sure doesn't.

It ASKS the small sample, and they report.

But it did not even ATTEMPT to ascertain if those percentages were consistent with the party identification of the entire community.

On what basis would you compare it to party identification?

You said they could find some approximate numbers by polling on that very topic. They achieved the approximate numbers by...polling on that very topic.

 

[8537]

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead - First Read

Another dem push poll. Can we expect oversampling? Why yes, they didnt offer those figures meaning they have........

The figures are right there in the poll.

 

[Annie]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

Put those numbers together with this analysis, you'll see why Obama, Biden, & Co are making so many gaffes:

Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls - NYTimes.com

August 22, 2012, 8:03 am48 Comments
Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls
By NATE SILVER

We can get pretty detail-oriented in our analysis of the polls here at FiveThirtyEight. But sometimes there is also value in applying a simpler approach.

One simple thing I’ve noticed is this: Mitt Romney has held the lead recently in quite a few swing state polls. That wasn’t the case in June or July, when Barack Obama held leads in those polls far more often than Mr. Romney did.

Right now, our forecast model classifies the 10 most important states in the Electoral College as follows, and in the following order: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

If you simply count the scientific polls that have been conducted in those states since Aug. 1, Mr. Obama has led in 13 of them, Mr. Romney has led in 11, and there have been two exact ties.

This marks a contrast from June and July, when Mr. Obama held leads in polls of the top 10 states about four times as often as Mr. Romney did.

If you read the fine print on the polls, then things don’t look quite as good for Mr. Romney. In the polls where Mr. Obama has held a lead, it has generally been by a somewhat larger margin than when Mr. Romney does. And the polling firms that have been most active in the states recently have been a bit Republican-leaning on balance — and a few of the polls have been outright weird.

It’s also plausible that this is partially a statistical fluke, since we really haven’t gotten all that much data. So far in August, we’ve logged 35 state polls in our database, counting both swing states and noncompetitive ones. That puts us well behind the pace from four years ago, when there were more than one hundred state polls conducted in the month of August.

But our forecasting model, which makes an effort to account for these sorts of factors, nevertheless finds that Mr. Romney has made up some distance in the swing states.

A few weeks ago, we were starting to see a gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College. Generally speaking, our model was giving Mr. Obama about a two-in-three chance (67 percent) of winning the popular vote, but slightly better than a 70 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

Now? Our popular vote forecast really hasn’t changed very much. As of Tuesday night, our model gave Mr. Obama a 66.9 percent chance of winning the popular vote.

But the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote has pretty much dissipated. Mr. Obama was given a 67 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in Tuesday’s model — almost exactly the same odds as in the popular vote forecast.

Perhaps a more important qualification is that many of these polls were conducted shortly after Mr. Romney named Representative Paul D. Ryan as his running mate. Candidates typically get a temporary bounce in the polls after naming their vice-presidential nominee, but it usually dissipates soon and their polling may be slightly inflated in the interim. This is not something that our model adjusts for.

Even so, I don’t think we should totally write off the idea that Mr. Romney has made up some ground in the swing states. Apart from his selection of Mr. Ryan, there are other things going on in the campaign. For example, Mr. Romney’s advertising advantage in swing states could be starting to pay dividends.

I don't think one needs to be a genius to see which way Mr. Silver's political leanings go, his reading of the polls though is very good. When he's seeing trends, it behooves partisans to take note.

 

[8537]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

Put those numbers together with this analysis, you'll see why Obama, Biden, & Co are making so many gaffes:

Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls - NYTimes.com

August 22, 2012, 8:03 am48 Comments
Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls
By NATE SILVER

We can get pretty detail-oriented in our analysis of the polls here at FiveThirtyEight. But sometimes there is also value in applying a simpler approach.

One simple thing I’ve noticed is this: Mitt Romney has held the lead recently in quite a few swing state polls. That wasn’t the case in June or July, when Barack Obama held leads in those polls far more often than Mr. Romney did.

Right now, our forecast model classifies the 10 most important states in the Electoral College as follows, and in the following order: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

If you simply count the scientific polls that have been conducted in those states since Aug. 1, Mr. Obama has led in 13 of them, Mr. Romney has led in 11, and there have been two exact ties.

This marks a contrast from June and July, when Mr. Obama held leads in polls of the top 10 states about four times as often as Mr. Romney did.

If you read the fine print on the polls, then things don’t look quite as good for Mr. Romney. In the polls where Mr. Obama has held a lead, it has generally been by a somewhat larger margin than when Mr. Romney does. And the polling firms that have been most active in the states recently have been a bit Republican-leaning on balance — and a few of the polls have been outright weird.

It’s also plausible that this is partially a statistical fluke, since we really haven’t gotten all that much data. So far in August, we’ve logged 35 state polls in our database, counting both swing states and noncompetitive ones. That puts us well behind the pace from four years ago, when there were more than one hundred state polls conducted in the month of August.

But our forecasting model, which makes an effort to account for these sorts of factors, nevertheless finds that Mr. Romney has made up some distance in the swing states.

A few weeks ago, we were starting to see a gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College. Generally speaking, our model was giving Mr. Obama about a two-in-three chance (67 percent) of winning the popular vote, but slightly better than a 70 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

Now? Our popular vote forecast really hasn’t changed very much. As of Tuesday night, our model gave Mr. Obama a 66.9 percent chance of winning the popular vote.

But the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote has pretty much dissipated. Mr. Obama was given a 67 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in Tuesday’s model — almost exactly the same odds as in the popular vote forecast.

Perhaps a more important qualification is that many of these polls were conducted shortly after Mr. Romney named Representative Paul D. Ryan as his running mate. Candidates typically get a temporary bounce in the polls after naming their vice-presidential nominee, but it usually dissipates soon and their polling may be slightly inflated in the interim. This is not something that our model adjusts for.

Even so, I don’t think we should totally write off the idea that Mr. Romney has made up some ground in the swing states. Apart from his selection of Mr. Ryan, there are other things going on in the campaign. For example, Mr. Romney’s advertising advantage in swing states could be starting to pay dividends.

I don't think one needs to be a genius to see which way Mr. Silver's political leanings go, his reading of the polls though is very good. When he's seeing trends, it behooves partisans to take note.

If you had told me back in January that unemployment would remain above 8% but " Mr. Obama was given a 67 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in Tuesday’s model — almost exactly the same odds as in the popular vote forecast."

I wouldn't have believed it.

Then we had the batshit crazy Tea Party Primary....

 

[Dr.House]

What a bunch of sour pusses!!!!! Better buck up, righties. Your problems haven't even started yet.

Maybe you can tell me how a poll taken a month after the last one by the same firm dropping 2 percentage points for 0bama is a good thing for him?

None of the other wack-a-libs cares to answer this...

 

[Katzndogz]

A four point lead now, means boy barry will win because given the state of the nation, it should be much worse.

 

[tjvh]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

Well gee, they are from the link and wouldn't you agree they weigh heavily in the Dems favor... Thus my reason for stating a four point lead for Obama isn't saying much in this poll.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Barry should be up by more than 4 with that level of oversampling...

Yikes...

What leads you to believe it was over-sampled?

Chuck todd, the head of nbc news has already discredited nbc polling

 

[Warrior102]

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead - First Read

Obama's four point lead in France and Iran doesn't mean shit here in the USA, Commie.

Get used to President Romney, assbreath.

 

[Rinata]

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead - First Read

Another dem push poll. Can we expect oversampling? Why yes, they didnt offer those figures meaning they have........

When righties do not like poll results, they claim they are wrong. You think the only correct ones are the ones you like.

 

[Jackson]

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead - First Read

Another dem push poll. Can we expect oversampling? Why yes, they didnt offer those figures meaning they have........

When righties do not like poll results, they claim they are wrong. You think the only correct ones are the ones you like.

We'll have to watch those swing states. They are the ones to watch.

 

[Rinata]

What a bunch of sour pusses!!!!! Better buck up, righties. Your problems haven't even started yet.

Maybe you can tell me how a poll taken a month after the last one by the same firm dropping 2 percentage points for 0bama is a good thing for him?

None of the other wack-a-libs cares to answer this...

Like I am going to answer any questions you ask. The biggest sour puss of the bunch. And where did I say that anything in the poll was a good thing for Obama??

 

[tinydancer]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

hot air did an analysis. D sampling was +6 in this poll alone.

Great article.

In a smaller sample of voters living in 12 key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent.

That’s a narrower edge in these battlegrounds than the eight-point lead the president enjoyed in the June and July NBC/WSJ polls.

Looking inside the numbers, Obama continues to lead Romney among key parts of his political base, including African Americans (94 percent to 0 percent), Latinos (by a 2-to-1 margin), voters under 35-years-old (52 percent to 41 percent) and women (51 percent to 41 percent).

Romney is ahead with whites (53 percent to 40 percent), rural voters (47 percent to 38 percent) and seniors (49 percent to 41 percent).

This is also known as neck and neck.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney by four nationally, by three in battleground states « Hot Air

 

[tinydancer]

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead - First Read

Another dem push poll. Can we expect oversampling? Why yes, they didnt offer those figures meaning they have........

When righties do not like poll results, they claim they are wrong. You think the only correct ones are the ones you like.

We're not stupid. We don't take a poll at face value and check for the methodology.

It's not a matter of picking a poll you like but when someone posts a poll the first thing I do is check out who the pollster is. The methodology and the sampling are crucial to the results of the poll.

 

[Dr.House]

What a bunch of sour pusses!!!!! Better buck up, righties. Your problems haven't even started yet.

Maybe you can tell me how a poll taken a month after the last one by the same firm dropping 2 percentage points for 0bama is a good thing for him?

None of the other wack-a-libs cares to answer this...

Like I am going to answer any questions you ask.

Yeah, I figured you were too scared to answer, you fat fuckstain....

 

[Liability]

What a bunch of sour pusses!!!!! Better buck up, righties. Your problems haven't even started yet.

Maybe you can tell me how a poll taken a month after the last one by the same firm dropping 2 percentage points for 0bama is a good thing for him?

None of the other wack-a-libs cares to answer this...

Like I am going to answer any questions you ask. * * * *

'Can't answer' is a perfectly good reply. And tons more honest.

 

[8537]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

Well gee, they are from the link and wouldn't you agree they weigh heavily in the Dems favor....

No, I wouldn't agree. And I'm curious what you believe the actual samples should be.

 

[Rinata]

Damn!!! I just posted some current poll information!!!! Relax, people. Most pundits say they are usually wrong, but I think they are kind of fun.

 

[Rinata]

Another dem push poll. Can we expect oversampling? Why yes, they didnt offer those figures meaning they have........

When righties do not like poll results, they claim they are wrong. You think the only correct ones are the ones you like.

We'll have to watch those swing states. They are the ones to watch.

Yes, you are absolutely right. Last night and this morning I heard several times that Florida is the most important state for both candidates. Why it would be more so than the other swing states, I don't know. But it is getting exciting.