NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead

[Rinata]

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front.”

Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”

NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead - First Read

 

[Mr.Nick]

Polls don't mean anything......

If you polled this site you would find Romney beating Obama by 75%.....

If you polled Huffo you would find Obama beating Romney by 75%....

 

[Wolfsister77]

I think it shows Romney as not being very likeable, Obama with work to do on getting above 50%, and not much bounce from Ryan.

Also, people's minds are basically made up but maybe can be swayed a little by the debates.

Obama also has an electoral advantage and that hasn't changed or has grown.

 

[tjvh]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

 

[8537]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

 

[Leweman]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

It over samples dems by at least 6 points and also they were taken in August and the election is in November.

 

[Dr.House]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

Barry should be up by more than 4 with that level of oversampling...

Yikes...

 

[8537]

Four point lead huh? Obama isn't doing very good then. This from the link:
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

What's the problem with those numbers?

It over samples dems by at least 6 points.

Really? What is the actual breakdown of Dems and Republicans in the nation right now - and how did you arrive at your numbers?

 

[8537]

Barry should be up by more than 4 with that level of oversampling...

Yikes...

What leads you to believe it was over-sampled?

 

[Katzndogz]

Democrats miss the irony.

obama will win because someone with a record this bad and it's still a statistical dead heat means victory.

 

[Dr.House]

Barry should be up by more than 4 with that level of oversampling...

Yikes...

What leads you to believe it was over-sampled?

Are you pretending to be stupid?

 

[8537]

Barry should be up by more than 4 with that level of oversampling...

Yikes...

What leads you to believe it was over-sampled?

Are you pretending to be stupid?

No, I'm simply confirming that you don't know what you're talking about.

You could just answer the question.....

 

[Dr.House]

For those of you unfamilliar with polling practices, using registered voters is the least reliable source of data... Not all registered voters vote...

Likely voters are a more reliable source of data...

 

[Dr.House]

What leads you to believe it was over-sampled?

Are you pretending to be stupid?

No, I'm simply confirming that you don't know what you're talking about.

You could just answer the question.....

^ That just confirms you're stupid...

Must be the math they use in blue states...

 

[8537]

Are you pretending to be stupid?

No, I'm simply confirming that you don't know what you're talking about.

You could just answer the question.....

^ That just confirms you're stupid...

Must be the math they use in blue states...

You seem to be avoiding the question. I don't blame ya.

Now again what should an accurate sample from each party be?

 

[8537]

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

What is the actual breakdown of Dems and Republicans in the nation right now - and how did you arrive at your numbers?

 

[Dr.House]

No, I'm simply confirming that you don't know what you're talking about.

You could just answer the question.....

^ That just confirms you're stupid...

Must be the math they use in blue states...

You seem to be avoiding the question. I don't blame ya.

Now again what should an accurate sample from each party be?

I don't answer obvious questions - waste of time... The numbers were right in front of you...

With a sample of registered voters, an even split of R/D/I...

As stated before, it's not a very reliable source... It's what polling firms use when their clients don't want to spend the $ for an LV poll...

 

[8537]

^ That just confirms you're stupid...

Must be the math they use in blue states...

You seem to be avoiding the question. I don't blame ya.

Now again what should an accurate sample from each party be?

I don't answer obvious questions - waste of time... The numbers were right in front of you...

With a sample of registered voters, an even split of R/D/I...

So you believe a split of 33.3% dems, 33.3% reps and 33.3% I's is a representative sample of the US voting-age population?

How did you arrive at that?

Should polls weight a sample as 25% black, 25% white, 25% Asian, 25% hispanic?

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

Heading into the general election in 1980 Carter was up on Reagan by about 7 points.... how'd that work out?

 

[Dr.House]

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

are you ADHD?

What is the actual breakdown of Dems and Republicans in the nation right now - and how did you arrive at your numbers?

Registered voters don't always vote... Getting someone to register is easier than getting them to come out and pull a lever...

Look at Wisconsin and the recall... Lots of registered democratics stayed home or voted Walker... Lots more registered R's came out in droves... Thats why polling before the election showed a close race yet Walker won easily...