Nate Silver correctly predicts all 50 states. So much for "oversampling"

Discussion in 'Politics' started by MarcATL, Nov 7, 2012.

  1. MarcATL
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    MarcATL Gold Member

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    So after an election season where conservatives were vehement that the polls were overly favorable to Obama, and that they knew more about sampling than actual statisticians, we now know that they were wrong.

    The biggest target they had was Nate Silver. Nate correctly predicted the outcome of every single state this time around, but unfortunately, I'm sure he will again be a target for conservatives whenever his models don't tell them what they want to hear.

    Not my words, but I totally co-sign them.
     
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  2. MarcATL
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    MarcATL Gold Member

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    MODs...delete this thread for me.

    Somehow I double posted.
     
  3. Article 15
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    Article 15 Dr. House slayer

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    Looks like he will nail the popular vote too.
     
  4. Dick Tuck
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    Dick Tuck Board Troll

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    It doesn't matter that Democrats had an 8 point edge over Republicans in the actual voting. Four years from now, we'll hear the same bullshit that the polls oversample Democrats and point to loony sites like unskewed.

    Here's unskewed's final projection:

    Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

    LMAO. Wingnuts are such rubes.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2012
  5. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Diamond Member

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    NaziCons are factually challenged.
     
  6. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    It was interesting to see the people on FoxNews admitting that they were wrong about the polls.
     
  7. Dick Tuck
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    Dick Tuck Board Troll

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  8. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Don't EVER trust polls, folks.

    Yes, inevitably some of them will be right, but that's just in the nature of this process.


    Because there is also that true and inevitable fact that while some Blind Chickens will find the corn, some will not.

    But the fact is that they're still ALL BLIND Chickens.
     
  9. Dick Tuck
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    Dick Tuck Board Troll

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    Yet Nate Silver looks at all polls, weighs them according to past performance, and turns out with the most accurate predictions, in the last two elections. Statistics is a science. If you understand statistics, you would understand what they're actually staying. If you take it to the next level, as Nate Silver has, you'll have a real idea of what's actually happening.

    With all their warts, polls are still the best indicator of fact than anecdotal nonsense. You do know that they use statistics, based on probability, to do things like approve drugs, don't you?
     

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