Paul Motter
Gold Member
- Aug 29, 2018
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Nate Silver also gave Trump a 12% chance of winning on Election day 2016. Not always right (at all)
Go to this recent article by Nate and look at the chart called:
How the House has swung historically : 2018 House Forecast
Nate Silver is making the argument that democrats have historically won more midterms than republicans going back to 1926.
IN THE LAST 24 YEARS - the Republicans have WON the MIDTERMS TEN OUT OF TWELVE TIMES. - Six in a row and then four in a row.
Nate does he not see "trends" at all in his polling and that is his fatal flaw. If this chart was for a stock or horse race, I would definitely be betting on RED.
Go to this recent article by Nate and look at the chart called:
How the House has swung historically : 2018 House Forecast
Nate Silver is making the argument that democrats have historically won more midterms than republicans going back to 1926.
IN THE LAST 24 YEARS - the Republicans have WON the MIDTERMS TEN OUT OF TWELVE TIMES. - Six in a row and then four in a row.
Nate does he not see "trends" at all in his polling and that is his fatal flaw. If this chart was for a stock or horse race, I would definitely be betting on RED.
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