My Unemployment Survey: America is at Full Employment

Is unemployment gonna be the October surprise?
:eusa_eh:
Unemployment benefit claims jump 46,000
October 18. 2012 WASHINGTON (AP) — Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months.
The increase represents a rebound from the previous week's sharp drop. Both swings were largely due to technical factors. The four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, rose slightly to 365,500, the Labor Department said Thursday. That is still a level consistent with modest hiring. Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008. This week, it reported a significant increase. The gyrations occurred because it processed applications last week that were delayed from the previous week. A department spokesman said the seasonally adjusted numbers "are being distorted ... by an issue of timing."

Applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they consistently fall below 375,000, it suggests hiring is healthy enough to lower the unemployment rate. Several economists simply calculated the average of the two distorted weeks, which is 365,000. That's in line with the recent trend. But it's modestly improved from September, suggesting that hiring could be a bit better this month. "Though still struggling, the U.S. labor market appears to be making headway, and we should see a modest improvement in October ... payrolls," Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in an email to clients. The number of people receiving benefits fell. Just over 5 million people received unemployment aid in the week ending Sept. 29, the latest data available. That was about 40,000 fewer than the previous week.

Some recent reports suggest the economy is picking up. Retail sales grew in September at a healthy clip. And builders started construction on new homes and apartments last month at the fastest pace in more than four years. Still, the economy is not growing fast enough to generate much hiring. Growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3% in the April-June quarter, down from 2% in the previous quarter. Most economists see growth staying at or below 2% in the second half of the year. The unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8%, the lowest level since January 2009, the department said earlier this month. It fell because a government survey of households found a huge increase in the number of people who had jobs. A jump in part-time employment accounted for most of the gain.

Employers, meanwhile, added 114,000 jobs in September, according to a separate survey of businesses. Hiring in July and August was also revised much higher. As a result, the economy gained an average of 146,000 jobs a month in the July-September quarter. That's more than double the monthly pace in the April-June quarter. Even so, hiring must be stronger to bring relief to the more than 12 million people who are unemployed. Roughly 100,000 new jobs are needed each month just to keep up with the working-age population.

Source
 
Unemployment inches down to 7.9%...
:eusa_eh:
171K jobs added, jobless rate 7.9 percent
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2,`12 (UPI) -- The U.S. Labor Department said Friday the economy added 171,00 jobs in October and the jobless rate rose to 7.9 percent as more people entered the workforce.
In the last key economic report before the presidential election, the Labor Department said the economy gained 184,000 private-sector jobs, which was offset by further layoffs of state and local government workers. The department also revised September's payroll gains upward to 148,000 jobs from the initially reported 114,000, and the August gain to 192,000, up from 142,000. The largest job gains in October were in professional and business services, healthcare, retail, leisure and hospitality, and construction.

The department said 578,000 more people actively sought employment in October and Alan Krueger, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said that was "largely" the reason the unemployment rate rose a 0.1 percent from its September rate of 7.8 percent. At a campaign rally in Hilliard, Ohio, Friday President Barack Obama told supporters the Labor Department report found U.S. companies "hired more workers in October than at any time in the last eight months." He said the economy has made "real progress" during his term in office "but we are here today because we know we've got more work to do."

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney issued a statement calling the increase in the unemployment rate "a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill." "The jobless rate is higher than it was when President Obama took office," Romney said, "and there are still 23 million Americans struggling for work." U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said, "Four years of persistently high unemployment and long-term joblessness might be the best President Obama can do -- but it's nowhere near what the American people can do if we get Washington out of their way."

Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, told The New York Times Friday's report indicates things are "better than we'd expected and certainly better than we'd thought a few months ago," but he said the economy is not making sufficient progress to bring the jobless rate down "significantly and rapidly."

Read more: Bureau of Labor Statistics:171K jobs added, October jobless rate 7.9% - UPI.com

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Damage from Sandy? What About the Potential Economic Boost?
31 Oct 2012 | As focus turns to the cost of the damage wrecked by Sandy, one of the biggest storms to hit the U.S., experts say the economy is set for a significant boost from the spending that will result from the need to rebuild homes and infrastructure.
The positive multiplier effect of reconstruction after Sandy could be as much as five times, according to Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of money manager U.S. Global Investors. If the cost of the damages comes up to $20 billion, the economic boost in terms of spending and activity could be $100 billion, he said. “America is great at rebounding and it will reinvigorate the economy. When you have committed infrastructure projects by governments, you get this automatic multiplying effect …every dollar is worth $4 to $6, so I think the positive part is going into 2013,” Holmes told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “We’re going to get a lot of infrastructure spending.”

A boost from reconstruction spending in the months ahead would help the U.S. economy, where a recovery has been slow. The U.S. economy grew a weak 2 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier and last month the Federal Reserve unveiled an aggressive monetary stimulus program to help get the economy get back on track. Holmes’ views echo that of Mohamed El-Erian, Co-CIO of PIMCO, who said on Tuesday that an initial decline in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and the destruction of physical wealth will be offset over time by greater economic activity.

IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, said the storm could end up causing about $20 billion in property damage and $10 to $30 billion more in lost business, making it one of the costliest natural disasters on record in the U.S. EQECAT, a catastrophe risk modeling firm, estimates that the economic losses from Sandy could amount to $10-20 billion, and insured damage would be about $5 to $10 billion. Insured damage does not include what would be covered by federal flood insurance.

Corelogic, a firm that analyses data, estimates that 284,000 residential properties, valued at $88 billion, were at risk from the storms. This compares with the $108 billion in damages caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the most destructive storm to hit the United States. The economy slowed in the quarter after Katrina before bouncing back quickly.

Big Spending
 
More people unemployed for the long term...
:eusa_eh:
Long-Term Unemployment Rises in October to 40.6%
November 2, 2012 - The long-term unemployment rate rose to 40.6 percent in October, up from September’s level of 40.1 percent of the total unemployed, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday.
Long-term unemployment is unemployment lasting for 27 consecutive weeks or longer, according to BLS. The government reported that just over 5 million people were unemployed for more than six months – 27 weeks – rising from September’s level of 4.8 million.

Long-term unemployment has remained elevated since the end of the recession in 2009. In January 2009, when President Obama took office, there were 2.7 million long-term unemployed Americans. By August of that year – after the recession had ended in June – that number had crossed the 5 million mark. Long-term unemployment remained above 5 million people until September, when it fell to 4.8 million.

The long-term unemployment rate – the percentage of the unemployed that have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer – has not been below 40 percent since December 2009, suggesting that while the overall unemployment rate has declined steadily, the economy is not creating enough jobs to bring back workers lost during the recession. Instead, the weak jobs growth is merely enough to keep up with the growth in population.

Long-Term Unemployment Rises in October to 40.6% | CNSNews.com

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Unemployment Up in October for Post-9/11 Veterans: Now 10 Percent
November 2, 2012 -- The unemployment rate for post-9/11 veterans was 10 percent in October, an increase from 9.7 percent in September, according to the Job Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released today.
The non-seasonally adjusted statistics for veterans over 18 indicated there were 209,000 unemployed post-9/11 veterans in October, which was an increase from 202,000 in September. The BLS classifies post-9/11 veterans as “Gulf War Era II” veterans, which includes anyone who served on active duty in the U.S. military following September 11, 2001.

Among male post-9/11 veterans, the unemployment rate climbed from 8 percent to 9.2 percent. This was also 1.7 percent higher than the non-seasonally adjusted rate for non-veteran males over 18, which was 7.5 percent. The post-9/11 veteran female unemployment rate for October was 15.5 percent, which was a decrease from 19.9 percent in September. This was the highest unemployment rate among all veteran demographics.

The same non-seasonally adjusted number for female non-veterans over 18 was 7.4 percent, an 8.1 percent difference. The labor participation rate among the post-9/11 veteran population also increased in October, going from 82.1 to 82.8 percent.

As reported earlier by CNSNews.com, the overall unemployment rate went up in October to 7.9 percent, and the BLS reported an addition of 171,000 jobs to the U.S. economy. Also, real unemployment decreased to 14.6 percent in October, down from 14.7 percent.

Source
 
Isn't that nice... the left mocking people losing their homes and struggling to put food on the table is now entertainment.

How strange the left are.
 
Fiscal cliff or unemployment benefits?...
:eusa_eh:
One more item for the fiscal cliff list: Jobless benefits
11/12/12 - As if the fiscal cliff wasn't worrisome enough, Democrats delivered this skunk of a reminder Monday: More than 2 million people will lose their jobless benefits at the end of the year unless lawmakers extend them.
That could mean a $58 billion hit to the economy if the benefits were allowed to lapse, Democrats on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee wrote in a report. “We cannot forget the human cliff looming for more than two million Americans scheduled to lose their economic lifeline during the upcoming holidays,” said Rep. Sander Levin, the top Democrat on the committee. “Congress must act quickly to ensure that we do not abandon those workers who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own.”

Jobless benefits usually have the highest bang for the buck in terms of economic growth because its recipients tend to spend the cash quickly, putting the money back into the economy. Economist Mark Zandi said in July that letting the unemployment benefits end would reduce growth by $58 billion. A separate analysis by JP Morgan Chase in April showed that not extending benefits beyond this year could reduce the nation’s gross domestic product by .3 percent.

The Democrats’ analysis also broke down the number of jobless benefit recipients state-by-state. The top five states that would be most affected would be California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Source
 
My Unemployment Survey: America is at Full Employment

There is no such thing as full employment. That is the stupidest freaking thing I have ever heard.
 
Granny says, "Dat's right - Unemployment goin' back up as we slide off the fiscal cliff...
:mad:
U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Shoots Back Up
December 6, 2012 - Unemployment situation best for college grads, whites, men, and older workers
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October's rate. These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the month -- 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.

It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November, although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is to blame. Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November's 7.8% rate is still tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012. However, on an adjusted basis, November's rate is the highest reading in six months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.

Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011. Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.

The increase in underemployment is the result of an increase in the number of people unemployed as well as the number of people working part time but wanting full time work, which rose to 9.4% in November from 8.9% in October. The number of workers wanting full-time positions generally increases during the holiday season as more people take on part-time seasonal work. Compared with this time last year, the percentage of workers desiring additional work is down a modest three-tenths of a point.

More U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Shoots Back Up

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73% of New Jobs Created in Last 5 Months Are in Government
December 7, 2012 - Seventy-three percent of the new civilian jobs created in the United States over the last five months are in government, according to official data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In June, a total of 142,415,000 people were employed in the U.S, according to the BLS, including 19,938,000 who were employed by federal, state and local governments.

By November, according to data BLS released today, the total number of people employed had climbed to 143,262,000, an overall increase of 847,000 in the six months since June.

In the same five-month period since June, the number of people employed by government increased by 621,000 to 20,559,000. These 621,000 new government jobs created in the last five months equal 73.3 percent of the 847,000 new jobs created overall.

73% of New Jobs Created in Last 5 Months Are in Government | CNS News

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Unemployment Plunges to 3.8% for Government Workers; Government Adds 35,000 Jobs in November, 544,000 Since July
December 7, 2012 - The unemployment rate for civilian government workers plunged from 4.2 percent in October to 3.8 percent in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as government added 35,000 to its taxpayer-funded payrolls during the month.
In October, federal, state and local governments in the United States employed 20,524,000 people. In November, that climbed to 20,559,000. As recently as July, the unemployment rate for government workers was as high as 5.7 percent, according to the BLS.

That month, government employed only 20,015,000. Since July, times have been very good for government in the United States, with governments managing to add 544,000 workers to their payrolls.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts someone as a government worker if they are not in the military and they are currently employed by any level of government—local, state or federal—or they are unemployed, they are looking for work, and their last job was for any level of government.

Source
 
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