Most accurate pollster for the 2012 Pres. election is ..

[Trajan]

PPP……..


Gallup and Ras tied for…24th..

Hows that for a flip?

Congrats to PPP.....




November 07, 2012

The Most Accurate Polls
A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK


The Most Accurate Polls

 

[AceRothstein]

Rasmussen, as usual, did even worse with their state polling. Pitiful performance from him.

 

[Trajan]

in all fairness hes not alone, nat. journal, gallup, some heavy hitters took the pipe too...the surprise imho, is, no. 6- tied with 4 media organizations.

 

[AceRothstein]

Pulled this off Twitter, Rasmussen's difference between his last poll of each state and the final result.

Just how bad was Rasmussen: CT -10, CO -7, IA -7, NH -7, WI -7, VA -5, NV -4, MI -4, FL -3, NC -3, MN -3, OH -2. Avg: 5.2% off.

 

[JimH52]

Pulled this off Twitter, Rasmussen's difference between his last poll of each state and the final result.

Just how bad was Rasmussen: CT -10, CO -7, IA -7, NH -7, WI -7, VA -5, NV -4, MI -4, FL -3, NC -3, MN -3, OH -2. Avg: 5.2% off.

He should close up shop...I think Raving Rove did better, didn't he?

 

[AceRothstein]

Pulled this off Twitter, Rasmussen's difference between his last poll of each state and the final result.

Just how bad was Rasmussen: CT -10, CO -7, IA -7, NH -7, WI -7, VA -5, NV -4, MI -4, FL -3, NC -3, MN -3, OH -2. Avg: 5.2% off.

He should close up shop...I think Raving Rove did better, didn't he?

It wouldn't be so bad if he was off in Obama's favor on some of those polls. None of the pollsters are always right but when you are consistently off in favor of one particular party only, you have very little credibility as a pollster.

 

[catzmeow]

PPP……..


Gallup and Ras tied for…24th..

Hows that for a flip?

Congrats to PPP.....




November 07, 2012

The Most Accurate Polls
A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK


The Most Accurate Polls

Wow...Daily Kos ranked #2. That's not something I ever expected to see.

 

[Trajan]

PPP……..


Gallup and Ras tied for…24th..

Hows that for a flip?

Congrats to PPP.....




November 07, 2012

The Most Accurate Polls
A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK


The Most Accurate Polls

Wow...Daily Kos ranked #2. That's not something I ever expected to see.

PPP is their pollster number cruncher....

 

[Political Junky]

PPP……..


Gallup and Ras tied for…24th..

Hows that for a flip?

Congrats to PPP.....




November 07, 2012

The Most Accurate Polls
A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK


The Most Accurate Polls

Wow...Daily Kos ranked #2. That's not something I ever expected to see.

But cons will continue to dismiss the Daily Kos.

 

[Trajan]

PPP……..


Gallup and Ras tied for…24th..

Hows that for a flip?

Congrats to PPP.....




November 07, 2012

The Most Accurate Polls
A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK


The Most Accurate Polls

Wow...Daily Kos ranked #2. That's not something I ever expected to see.

But cons will continue to dismiss the Daily Kos.

again, DK polling is affiliated with PPP for polling calculus.

 

[Trajan]

fox snippet, the Examiner taking them to task for oversampling democrats..., they used D+5..

Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Fox News presidential poll skewed - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

 

[Dick Tuck]

in all fairness hes not alone, nat. journal, gallup, some heavy hitters took the pipe too...the surprise imho, is, no. 6- tied with 4 media organizations.

Neither miscalled as many states as Rassmussen. I think he is still using likely voter algorithms from the 1950s.

 

[Dick Tuck]

PPP……..


Gallup and Ras tied for…24th..

Hows that for a flip?

Congrats to PPP.....




November 07, 2012

The Most Accurate Polls
A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK


The Most Accurate Polls

Wow...Daily Kos ranked #2. That's not something I ever expected to see.

They contract with PPP to do the leg work, and have let the chips fall where they may when it wasn't looking good after the first debate.

 

[Trajan]

in all fairness hes not alone, nat. journal, gallup, some heavy hitters took the pipe too...the surprise imho, is, no. 6- tied with 4 media organizations.

Neither miss called as many states as Rassmussen. I think he is still using likely voter algorithms from the 1950s.

sure, and?


he will suffer for it, I have many times, Gallup, Ras make their living via Polling. The free market being what it is, if I were a candidate looking for a polling outfit I would think twice...

 

[Dick Tuck]

fox snippet, the Examiner taking them to task for oversampling democrats..., they used D+5..

Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Fox News presidential poll skewed - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

They didn't oversample enough, as it turned out. But yeah, FOX polling was pretty good. They did miscall Virginia, as did Real Clear Politic, but overall, they weren't bad. It was funny watching their pundits refuse to use it, and pointed to other polls, like Rassmussen.

 

[Trajan]

they were off by a point for god sakes.

 

[Dick Tuck]

they were off by a point for god sakes.

Not in their state polling. They screwed the pooch there.

Florida, they had Romney up by 2.
Ohio, they had a tie.
Wisconsin, they had a tie.
Virgina, Romney up by 2.
Colorado, Romney up by 3

Several of these. Not 1 in 20, which a 95% confidence would indicate, exceeded their MOE. The rest of their swing state polling was at the bottom end of the MOE. Too many coincidences to not say they had a bias in their method.

 

[AceRothstein]

they were off by a point for god sakes.

Not in their state polling. They screwed the pooch there.

Florida, they had Romney up by 2.
Ohio, they had a tie.
Wisconsin, they had a tie.
Virgina, Romney up by 2.
Colorado, Romney up by 3

Several of these. Not 1 in 20, which a 95% confidence would indicate, exceeded their MOE. The rest of their swing state polling was at the bottom end of the MOE. Too many coincidences to not say they had a bias in their method.

Especially when the bias ALWAYS leans one way.

 

[Trajan]

they were off by a point for god sakes.

Not in their state polling. They screwed the pooch there.

Florida, they had Romney up by 2.
Ohio, they had a tie.
Wisconsin, they had a tie.
Virgina, Romney up by 2.
Colorado, Romney up by 3

Several of these. Not 1 in 20, which a 95% confidence would indicate, exceeded their MOE. The rest of their swing state polling was at the bottom end of the MOE. Too many coincidences to not say they had a bias in their method.

they wound up ahead of ( and tied several others)-

23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

but of you insist on manufacturing enough fault to label them bias have a party...

 

[Dick Tuck]

they were off by a point for god sakes.

Not in their state polling. They screwed the pooch there.

Florida, they had Romney up by 2.
Ohio, they had a tie.
Wisconsin, they had a tie.
Virgina, Romney up by 2.
Colorado, Romney up by 3

Several of these. Not 1 in 20, which a 95% confidence would indicate, exceeded their MOE. The rest of their swing state polling was at the bottom end of the MOE. Too many coincidences to not say they had a bias in their method.

they wound up ahead of ( and tied several others)-

23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

but of you insist on manufacturing enough fault to label them bias have a party...

There is a bias when a pollster has all his critical state polls either outside the margin of error, or outside the margin of error. I'm not talking about their national beauty pageant polls. If you missed it, since 1789, we have an electoral college system. All that really matters is the state polls, and Rassmussen totally sucked in this cycle.

It's also not single polls. Rassmussen polls since after the conventions have been outliers to everyone else.

I gave you a list of battleground states, and their reporting. By my figuring, two of the five were outside the confidence limit, and the rest were at the extreme low of the MOE. That just doesn't happen unless there is a bias. I don't know if it's a sampling bias, a poll question bias, or a likely voter algorithm bias, but a bias does exist.

Perhaps they should pay Nate Silver to consult, and try to solve their bias problems.