MoreRCP Poll Reading Problems--Statistical Tie Is Not A Toss-Up!

[mascale]

So in the year of the "energized" Republican base, they are still a minority party. Putting that aside, in a Florida District, along the Atlantic Coast, a three percent difference between two candidates, with 9% undecided: Is neverthess not a Real Clear Politics, (RCP), "toss-up." A previous poll a month earlier had even shown the Democrat winning. Instead, RCP puts the district in the "lean Republican category.

West Winning Wild CD 22 Race, Poll Shows | Sunshine State News

Apparently the district is in fact uusally Democrat.

Along the California Coast, a "red tide," is all about waves of dead plankton near the shore. At night, it even glows. It goes away. At RCP it would seem that a "red tide" is about everyone, even if the numbers are not even close to a potential majority outcome, one way or another. The "energized base" would better be said to have already spoken, Leaving the undecided nine percent in the lop-sided category: And possibly in the other direction.

The report of the poll even alludes to the "energized base," without noting that it is less than a majority faction.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(ArizonaSenator, He-Who-Flaps-Like-Mudhen, is technically a Vietnam Veteran, which was not entirely Republican, even at the time. Mostly, when not attempting to fly, he was in Nixon's famous "other side," having hls arms broken(?). That eventually was the side that won!)

 

[RadiomanATL]

So a tie is not a tie?


Baghdad Bob, is that you?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

A tie goes to the Democrat

 

[mascale]

The mayor of Palm Springs, CA is relatively well-liked, and the incumbent former Mrs. Sonny Bono has a Conservative challenger. More importantly, the District GOP advantage is only 3% in registration, and the top of the California ticket is resoundingly Democratic. Brown has a 13% lead through 10/20, and Boxer has an 8% lead in the same LA Times/USC poll. That one is front page news, just today.

In California, more importantly, Women and Hispanics are trending away from the GOP!

The Conservative Base of CA45 doesn't even like the incumbent. The District has gone for the Democrats in recent outings.

That is considered, "Likely GOP," at Real Clear Politics House race trends.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!)
(Many Nations knew when to keep Lands for themselves, even!)

 

[Mini 14]

So in the year of the "energized" Republican base, they are still a minority party. Putting that aside, in a Florida District, along the Atlantic Coast, a three percent difference between two candidates, with 9% undecided: Is neverthess not a Real Clear Politics, (RCP), "toss-up." A previous poll a month earlier had even shown the Democrat winning. Instead, RCP puts the district in the "lean Republican category.

West Winning Wild CD 22 Race, Poll Shows | Sunshine State News

Apparently the district is in fact uusally Democrat.

Along the California Coast, a "red tide," is all about waves of dead plankton near the shore. At night, it even glows. It goes away. At RCP it would seem that a "red tide" is about everyone, even if the numbers are not even close to a potential majority outcome, one way or another. The "energized base" would better be said to have already spoken, Leaving the undecided nine percent in the lop-sided category: And possibly in the other direction.

The report of the poll even alludes to the "energized base," without noting that it is less than a majority faction.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(ArizonaSenator, He-Who-Flaps-Like-Mudhen, is technically a Vietnam Veteran, which was not entirely Republican, even at the time. Mostly, when not attempting to fly, he was in Nixon's famous "other side," having hls arms broken(?). That eventually was the side that won!)

Polls don't matter. The vote matters.

We're talking about Florida, where EVERY vote is a mystery anyway.

 

[Missourian]

So in the year of the "energized" Republican base, they are still a minority party. Putting that aside, in a Florida District, along the Atlantic Coast, a three percent difference between two candidates, with 9% undecided: Is neverthess not a Real Clear Politics, (RCP), "toss-up." A previous poll a month earlier had even shown the Democrat winning. Instead, RCP puts the district in the "lean Republican category.

West Winning Wild CD 22 Race, Poll Shows | Sunshine State News

Apparently the district is in fact uusally Democrat.

Along the California Coast, a "red tide," is all about waves of dead plankton near the shore. At night, it even glows. It goes away. At RCP it would seem that a "red tide" is about everyone, even if the numbers are not even close to a potential majority outcome, one way or another. The "energized base" would better be said to have already spoken, Leaving the undecided nine percent in the lop-sided category: And possibly in the other direction.

The report of the poll even alludes to the "energized base," without noting that it is less than a majority faction.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(ArizonaSenator, He-Who-Flaps-Like-Mudhen, is technically a Vietnam Veteran, which was not entirely Republican, even at the time. Mostly, when not attempting to fly, he was in Nixon's famous "other side," having hls arms broken(?). That eventually was the side that won!)

See..right here is your problem:

they are still a minority party

If you start with a faulty premise, you conclude with a faulty result.

​

Likely Voters Demographically Typical, but Skew Conservative

 

[mascale]

Again, anyone might guess that the Tea Party/GOP is better thought of as an unwanted, minority, abberation. It has not energized the linked race, at all! The incumbent Democrat is leading, and most of the time.

RCP therefore blatantly labels it, "Leans GOP!"

RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - New York 23rd District - Doheny vs. Owens

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(When logic fails, then the Tea Party is there(?)!"

 

[mascale]

Likely Voters are not all regisgtered voters. The Democratic Party Identification started to turn back to Democrat at the end of the summer, which traditionally happens before the middle of Fall: If even Conservatives are to be understood(?)!

Party identification edge erodes for Democrats - The Hill's Ballot Box

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(In The George Bush Caused, Tea Party(?) Iraq, even voting does not guarantee that there will be a government!)

 

[LiberalNut]

While it is true that likely voter methodology skews the sample to the right, it is also true that voter turnout is a variable, not a constant. Put your faith in likely voter methodology at your own peril. If turnout is light, the poll will be hyper-accurate. If turnout is higher than expected, the poll will be laughably false.

That said, the OP is spot on. RCP should know that the sample is skewed to the right by the likely voter definition. Thus, anything within the margin of error should at worst be a toss-up and at best be a lean Dem. Putting the race under consideration into the lean Repub column is unjustified and it makes one wonder what the true intentions and motivations of RCP really are.

This thing is shaping out to be closer than all the hype has lead us to believe. While the MSM pretty much parrots the Republican talking points about enthusiasm gaps, voter anger at the administration and whatnot, the real numbers seem to be trending Dem in the final runup to election day. Early voting is not so tilted to Republicans as the so-called "enthusiasm gap" would predict either. To tell you the truth, I always doubted the utility of these numbers anyway.

My guess: The Dems keep the Senate by 3-4 seats and the House is too close to call. Repubs definately gain seats but whether they pick up enough for the gavel is a 50-50 proposition at this point.

 

[Missourian]

I disagree, RCP has historically been highly accurate and unbiased...look at the 2008 Presidential race.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Missouri: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Florida: McCain vs. Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - New Jersey: McCain vs. Obama

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Nate Silver is obviously left leaning but his methods, stats, logarithms, polls are deadly accurate. I think he only missed a couple in 2008. I don't know if he was around in 2006 but his scientific methods are pretty precise.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[2Parties]

I'm pregnantly voting for Chad.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Likely Voters are not all regisgtered voters. The Democratic Party Identification started to turn back to Democrat at the end of the summer, which traditionally happens before the middle of Fall: If even Conservatives are to be understood(?)!

Party identification edge erodes for Democrats - The Hill's Ballot Box

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(In The George Bush Caused, Tea Party(?) Iraq, even voting does not guarantee that there will be a government!)

You're going to lose and lose badly. End of story. I suggest you accept this now so you aren't standing on the edge of a 30 story building the night of Election Day. (Not that any of us would be terribly upset about that.)

 

[LiberalNut]

I remember when John Zogby was the polling wonderboy. Now he's nowhere. Public opinion polling is as much an art as a science and having gotten lucky in one or two cycles does not a superior scientist make. There are loads of assumptions in every model and those assumptions are just as likely to be wrong as right in any given cycle.

So, maybe RCP will be the wonderboys this year, maybe not. The point is that the race under consideration isn't justified being put in the lean Rep. column. Anything within the margin of error should be a toss up.

But, like the blackjack player who insanely hits 17 into a dealers showing six, RCP could turn out to be right in this race. That doesn't mean that their methods were any better or that the idiot who pulled a 4 out of the deck was justified hitting 17.

 

[FlyingReganite]

Hope and change baby.

It's on da way.

 

[mascale]

So in another statistical battle, with double-digit undecided--winning 89% among Likely Democrats, Winning Single digits among Independents, and Winning 11% among "energized" Republicans--RCP has the linked Colorado race, Likely GOP.

Most would say the race is statistically tied, and if the GOP is really energized, then likely Democrat!

District by district - Colorado - TheHill.com

Most likely, the "energized" base of Republicans has expressed their opinions. Still RCP claims that the "tide" has already happened.

The House Republicans famously directed their "Pledge" among 22 pages of pictures of old, fat, white people. In Colorado, by comparison, people have even been known to ski: Maybe even on top of the water, (not dead, in it)(?)!

The Obama approval ratings in the polls may be bouncing even more than a Klan Dragon's checks in a diner--but even health care is actually finding, now, acceptance: Line item by line item. Bill Clinton will be making most of the appearances this week, at any rate.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Polls Playing Trick or Treat, in "Conservative" areas: Like in Conservative-Caused Non-Government in Iraq(?)!)

 

[NYcarbineer]

RCP's 'no tossups' map of the Senate has it ending up 51 - 49 Democrat, which would be quite funny if that held because it essentially would mean that the Tea Party will have cost the GOP their chance to take the Senate.

 

[mascale]

Only one or two polls to go, then in Pennslyvania, in this "Leans GOP," RCP-rated, race: This District will be so sky-blue that even Ben Franklin would not try to fly a new kite!

RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Pennsylvania 11th District - Barletta vs. Kanjorski

All the while, the press corps is touting some nature of trend: On which all of logic is alleged to rely!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Amish of Pennsylvania--already do Tea Party agenda!)

 

[Missourian]

RCP's 'no tossups' map of the Senate has it ending up 51 - 49 Democrat, which would be quite funny if that held because it essentially would mean that the Tea Party will have cost the GOP their chance to take the Senate.

The GOP is going to take WV, that's 50/50.

You guys need to pray both WA and CA hold, or one holds and IL goes Dem.

Odds are currently 3 to 1 against but I wouldn't sleep soundly betting either way.

 

[mascale]

The big undecided poll expressions are not evidence of a tide, but are expressions of a wait and see, or mind the store, or watch the increase of help-wanted ads. So there is a mythology this year, originating in the primaries, that is not being carried over to the general.

In California, Democrats really didn't turn out for the primaries in June. In October, The Democratic candidate for Governor is leading in double digits in recent polling, or high single digits.

The "Energized base" Republican base, which did turn out, is old news. Famously Rand Paul has been losing in the poll expressions of outcome, and Kentucky is a toss-up. Colorado is a an actual expressed tie. The House Races noted are being mis-read, or the commentator expressions do not mirror the expressions in the data.

And so for the outcome of Conservatives meddling in national politics, anyone is better directed to the what the Republicans did to Iraq! They have no government at all, but are faced with over 2.0 mil. refugees, strewn about the region. They have done that before!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Many Nations know fanatic White Eyes do no nation-building at all! Gaming Interests, friends of Great Senate Leader, do more nation-building than GOP!)