More People Disappear from the Labor Force in January

[boedicca]

The Obama Administration is sure to spin the January jobs report as an improvement in the economy due to the headline figure of 9% unemployment, but the data bely a moribund jobs environment:

The Labor Force SHRANK by 504K in January.

Those who are not in the labor force increased by 319K (the full year increase is 2.2M).

The Civilian labor force participation rate dropped from 64.3 to 64.2 (in January 2010 it was 64.8).

Total non-farm employment increased by 36K, less than 1/3 the amount needed to just keep up with population growth.

The only reason unemployment has fallen is that more people have given up and are no longer counted by the government among the labor force and the unemployed.


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

 

[Trajan]

The Obama Administration is sure to spin the January jobs report as an improvement in the economy due to the headline figure of 9% unemployment, but the data bely a moribund jobs environment:

The Labor Force SHRANK by 504K in January.

Those who are not in the labor force increased by 319K.

The Civilian labor force participation rate dropped from 64.3 to 64.2 (in January 2010 it was 64.8).

Total non-farm employment increased by 36K, less than 1/3 the amount needed to just keep up with population growth.

The only reason unemployment has fallen is that more people have given up and are no longer counted by the government among the labor force and the unemployed.


Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

yup heres a quick hit form Zero hedge...

At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian noninstitutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186). Those not in the Labor Force has increased from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year! As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months! The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job. Lastly, we won't even show what the labor force is as a percentage of total population. It is a vertical plunge.

graph charts more at -
Labor Force Participation Plunges To Fresh 26 Year Low | zero hedge

we created only 36K jobs, we need 135-150k to just employ new entrants, the labor force has magically shrunk again by 500k and the unemployment rates drops almost half a percent, It doesn't even make intuitive sense , at all.....folks, is there any wonder at all why people don't trust the gov.? seriously?

and yes this BS B.L.S. hide the salami game stared with Clinton in earnest and yes Bush used it too, I don't see this as a partisan issue.

 

[Madeline]

Sadly, this would appear to be correct.

 

[boedicca]

It's not a partisan issue - but the games started in earnest in the first Clinton administration.

U3 unemployment is now as credibly as the official inflation rate which excludes FOOD and ENERGY prices.

I heard some Obama shill on the news last night crow about how consumer spending increased by 4% in December. I bet most of that was fueled by higher food and fuel prices.

 

[Madeline]

It's not a partisan issue - but the games started in earnest in the first Clinton administration.

U3 unemployment is now as credibly as the official inflation rate which excludes FOOD and ENERGY prices.

I heard some Obama shill on the news last night crow about how consumer spending increased by 4% in December. I bet most of that was fueled by higher food and fuel prices.

From observing my own community, based on local news, I'd say manufacturing is up. Financial services are down. Unemployment is still terribly high and inflation is on the rise.

But who am I compared to the BLS?

 

[Trajan]

It's not a partisan issue - but the games started in earnest in the first Clinton administration.

U3 unemployment is now as credibly as the official inflation rate which excludes FOOD and ENERGY prices.

I heard some Obama shill on the news last night crow about how consumer spending increased by 4% in December. I bet most of that was fueled by higher food and fuel prices.

yea well, my question is what if this malaise drags on another year? seriously? we're in 1934, what? another 5 years of this?

ad let me say I don't get razzled anymore...the AP, et al are all in the tank, i.e. they have over used worn out and beat to death the adjective "unexpectedly".....they have used it so so many times its a running joke now. I am tired of the media taking one or 2 blips and making a mountain out of the mole hill.

when we have 4%+ qtr growth and 250k jobs a month for a sustained quarter, I'll give obama kudos, until then its all a smoke screen, we are printing money by the bushel and SS is in the red...its not like we are just sitting still and nothing else is happening while we wait for the economy to wake up, our position is weakening and the hole gets deeper every month we don't grow............ you never see that said straight away , anywhere.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Yeah, I thought this was funny. We added 36,000 jobs and unemployment fell? We need to be adding anywhere from 250k to 300k jobs a month just to break even. They can spin this but bs only lasts for so long, then you gotta come clean.

 

[Sallow]

It's not a partisan issue - but the games started in earnest in the first Clinton administration.

U3 unemployment is now as credibly as the official inflation rate which excludes FOOD and ENERGY prices.

I heard some Obama shill on the news last night crow about how consumer spending increased by 4% in December. I bet most of that was fueled by higher food and fuel prices.

Sure it is.

These sort of shennigans were used by the Bush administration to tout it's success.

And still used by right wing partisans to point out that the Bush economy wasn't as dismal as it was.

 

[B. Kidd]

I'm waiting for TM to post a thread...."Unemployment down to 9%, Economy Still Improving".

 

[B. Kidd]

Yeah, I thought this was funny. We added 36,000 jobs and unemployment fell? We need to be adding anywhere from 250k to 300k jobs a month just to break even. They can spin this but bs only lasts for so long, then you gotta come clean.

Some might think that 36,000 jobs is better then nothing, when 36,000 jobs, in the scheme of things, is just a tick above nothing. A healthy economy produces +400,000 jobs monthly.

 

[zzzz]

Output per worker is up which means that industries need to hire less people to put out the same amount of product. Some of that may be due to equipement upgrades too. Economists expected over 150,000 new jobs, only had 36,000. People are getting fed up looking for work and finding nothing. If you are over 50 forget it. The last I heard it was going to take several more years to just back to normal and that is if we do not regress into recession.

There are too many things pulling on the economy. Oil could be the biggest weight, $120 options are up, oil in Britian is $12 higher than the US and we are not even in spring yet. I look at the job postings in my area every day and all I see are sales jobs, hardly any manufacturing are listed. When there is a manufacturing job it is posted by a temporary laborer company.

 

[sparky]

If you are over 50 forget it.

forget what?

somebody had to....

 

[Trajan]

It's not a partisan issue - but the games started in earnest in the first Clinton administration.

U3 unemployment is now as credibly as the official inflation rate which excludes FOOD and ENERGY prices.

I heard some Obama shill on the news last night crow about how consumer spending increased by 4% in December. I bet most of that was fueled by higher food and fuel prices.

Sure it is.

These sort of shennigans were used by the Bush administration to tout it's success.

And still used by right wing partisans to point out that the Bush economy wasn't as dismal as it was.

heres some shocking nrews for you, a) its 2011 and b) i will wager my paycheck that 7- 10 folks would take , say 05 or 06 back in a minute..........5% unemployment even using the juked counting mechanism, now that being said that doesn't mean the sand wasn't shifting beneath our feet, BUT we weren't printing money at the rate we are and we still had a fed. revenue which was much higher to fund some of that, a deficit much lower , we had not blown our wad on a Trillion stimulus which has yielded mediocre results to be kind BUT left us with nowhere to go at upwards of 9% unemployment, and the interest to pay on that money that was borrowed to the tune of 40 cents on the dollar......so how many years you wanna wait? How much time do we truly have left? yea we know bush sucked got it, Its been 2 years, so what now?

 

[william the wie]

The current problems are not going to be resolved short of war or seccession Trajan. There are far too many conflicts over priority and agenda for normal politics to work. Despite massive increases in the number of discouraged workers and actual inflation not just Obama supporters but members of the administration are crowing about their successes. This will not end well.

 

[pinqy]

It's not a partisan issue - but the games started in earnest in the first Clinton administration.

U3 unemployment is now as credibly as the official inflation rate which excludes FOOD and ENERGY prices.

I heard some Obama shill on the news last night crow about how consumer spending increased by 4% in December. I bet most of that was fueled by higher food and fuel prices.

U-4, 5,and 6 also went DOWN. Not in Labor Force went up, but Discouraged workers went down.

Most of the issue was that the population went down due to new calculations.

Oh, and food and energy are part of the official inflation. Do some research.

 

[william the wie]

There are too many shoes left to drop and our industrial age stats are becoming less representative of the economy by the day so bad results can be expected.

 

[Trajan]

The current problems are not going to be resolved short of war or seccession Trajan. There are far too many conflicts over priority and agenda for normal politics to work. Despite massive increases in the number of discouraged workers and actual inflation not just Obama supporters but members of the administration are crowing about their successes. This will not end well.

I agree. I said it last year at another forum I frequented, I was labeled crazy etc etc....the set up is, from a historical perspective shaping up to fit all of the criteria...the time worn, biggest reset button there is- war.

 

[Trajan]

There are too many shoes left to drop and our industrial age stats are becoming less representative of the economy by the day so bad results can be expected.

vis a vis that 30's itch that I cannot scratch...an overarching bit on point philosophical view that should lead one to ponder...


* FEBRUARY 7, 2011

Europe's Not Playing Ball With Merkel

When "the European Project" was conceived a goal was to contain Germany—create a European Germany as an alternative to the other possibility, a German Europe.

For a while it looked as if the founders had succeeded, especially when they created the euro as the most important step toward the replacement of nation states with a European Union, or at least a euro zone. Then came the financial crisis in the periphery countries, and the emergence of Germany as the principal source of funds to prevent (postpone, or conceal, would be more accurate descriptions) the restructuring of the debts of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and perhaps Spain and Italy, not to mention Belgium, home of the burgeoning eurocracy, and a nation seemingly incapable of forming a government of its own.

Now, the member states of the euro zone, and indeed the entire EU, are confronting the possibility that their effort to subsume Germany in a united Europe is about to fail, and a Europe dancing to the German tune—a German Europe—is about to emerge. But not before a struggle by several nations to retain what remains of their independence.

After considerable dithering, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy protecting her flank, laid down the surrender terms at a summit just before the weekend. Germany will support the financially stricken nations, if they, well, become more German. In return for the cash, they are to adopt Germany's retirement age, abolish the indexation of wages to inflation, copy the policies Germany employed to make its goods competitive in world markets, harmonize taxes across the euro zone if not the entire EU, and set firm limits on the ability of countries to run up debt.

These terms seem to Ms. Merkel a reasonable exchange for what is in essence her agreement to take the debts of profligate countries on to Germany's strong balance sheet. She knows she will pay a price in higher interest rates as the rating agencies factor in these new obligations and risks, some of them already apparent, others lurking in the dark corners of the balance sheets of other nations and their banks. Recall: Greece poured more than a little fudge over its books for years, Ireland refused to admit that its banking system had collapsed, and Spain has yet to force all of its regional banks, or cajas, to clean up their acts and shore up their capital.

much more at- http://online.wsj.com/article
/SB10001424052748704858404576127960989229174.html?mod=WSJEurope_hps_MIDDLETopStories

 

[william the wie]

Another factor that is going to become very big possibly quite soon but within a few years in any case is the push to get rid of ethanol. The US is denounced almost worldwide for the ethanol subsidy. If this is another bad agricultural year Obama's EPA will land him in a trade war with almost everybody that will prevent his reelection. Food for the table not for the gas tank and similar slogans are mentioned in many foreign news sources.