More Guns Make People Safer

[boedicca]

One way in which Obama has transformed America: Increased gun ownership and lower murder rates.

We're safer with More Guns!

Since President Obama’s election the number of concealed handgun permits has soared, growing from 4.6 million in 2007 to over 12.8 million this year. Among the findings in our report:

-- The number of concealed handgun permits is increasing at an ever- increasing rate. Over the past year, 1.7 million additional new permits have been issued – a 15.4% increase in just one single year. This is the largest ever single-year increase in the number of concealed handgun permits.

-- 5.2% of the total adult population has a permit.

-- Five states now have more than 10% of their adult population with concealed handgun permits.

-- In ten states, a permit is no longer required to carry in all or virtually all of the state. This is a major reason why legal carrying handguns is growing so much faster than the number of permits.

-- Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%.

-- Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.

-- Between 2007 and 2014, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.2 (preliminary estimates) per 100,000. This represents a 25% drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 156%. Overall violent crime also fell by 25 percent over that period of time.

-- States with the largest increase in permits have seen the largest relative drops in murder rates.

-- Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott John E Whitley Rebekah C. Riley SSRN

 

[candycorn]

Only in a gun nut's mind would 10,000 gun deaths a year be someting to applaud.
What you should be worried about is how easy it was for the NRA and other pro gun-nut groups to manipulate you into buying more guns. OPEC should hire their PR Firm; next thing you know, you guys will be buying crude oil off of the docks.

 

[percysunshine]

Strawman alert!

 

[boedicca]

Only in a gun nut's mind would 10,000 gun deaths a year be someting to applaud.
What you should be worried about is how easy it was for the NRA and other pro gun-nut groups to manipulate you into buying more guns. OPEC should hire their PR Firm; next thing you know, you guys will be buying crude oil off of the docks.

Only a loon such as you would twist a welcome drop in crime into a celebration of deaths.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

One way in which Obama has transformed America: Increased gun ownership and lower murder rates.

We're safer with More Guns!

Since President Obama’s election the number of concealed handgun permits has soared, growing from 4.6 million in 2007 to over 12.8 million this year. Among the findings in our report:

-- The number of concealed handgun permits is increasing at an ever- increasing rate. Over the past year, 1.7 million additional new permits have been issued – a 15.4% increase in just one single year. This is the largest ever single-year increase in the number of concealed handgun permits.

-- 5.2% of the total adult population has a permit.

-- Five states now have more than 10% of their adult population with concealed handgun permits.

-- In ten states, a permit is no longer required to carry in all or virtually all of the state. This is a major reason why legal carrying handguns is growing so much faster than the number of permits.

-- Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%.

-- Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.

-- Between 2007 and 2014, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.2 (preliminary estimates) per 100,000. This represents a 25% drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 156%. Overall violent crime also fell by 25 percent over that period of time.

-- States with the largest increase in permits have seen the largest relative drops in murder rates.

-- Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott John E Whitley Rebekah C. Riley SSRN

This fails as a confusion of correlation and causation fallacy, there is no evidence presented in the cited article establishing a direct link between an increase in the number of concealed weapons permits and a 'decrease' in crime.

Nor is any direct link established indicating that the increase in concealed weapons permits has anything to do with the president.

In fact, more recent studies and analysis indicate that the research cited in the article is inaccurate, such as that by John R. Lott, Jr. and David B. Mustard, and that more concealed weapons permits do not result in a decrease in crime:

“In 2005, the Nation Research Council published a large report including a section that was designed to definitively resolve the question. All but one of the panel's 18 members concluded that existing research was insufficient to say much of anything about a causal connection between crime and right-to-carry laws.”

More guns less crime Not exactly. - The Washington Post

Last, the Crime Prevention Research Center is a well established rightwing organization, with a reputation for distorting facts concerning firearms regulation and issuing misleading studies and research, as well as exhibiting an overall unwarranted hostility toward necessary, proper, and Constitutional gun laws; the CPRC is completely devoid of credibility and merit.

 

[danielpalos]

Let's end our exorbitantly expensive, War on Drugs to find out.

 

[boedicca]

Let's end our exorbitantly expensive, War on Drugs to find out.

As long as we enforce border security, that's fine with me.

 

[ThoughtCrimes]

One way in which Obama has transformed America: Increased gun ownership and lower murder rates.

We're safer with More Guns!

Since President Obama’s election the number of concealed handgun permits has soared, growing from 4.6 million in 2007 to over 12.8 million this year. Among the findings in our report:

-- The number of concealed handgun permits is increasing at an ever- increasing rate. Over the past year, 1.7 million additional new permits have been issued – a 15.4% increase in just one single year. This is the largest ever single-year increase in the number of concealed handgun permits.

-- 5.2% of the total adult population has a permit.

-- Five states now have more than 10% of their adult population with concealed handgun permits.

-- In ten states, a permit is no longer required to carry in all or virtually all of the state. This is a major reason why legal carrying handguns is growing so much faster than the number of permits.

-- Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%.

-- Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.

-- Between 2007 and 2014, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.2 (preliminary estimates) per 100,000. This represents a 25% drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 156%. Overall violent crime also fell by 25 percent over that period of time.

-- States with the largest increase in permits have seen the largest relative drops in murder rates.

-- Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott John E Whitley Rebekah C. Riley SSRN

Comparing the decrease of 25% in the murder rate with the rapid increase in conceal-carry permits over the last 8 years means what? Is the reader to be lead to the conclusion that the increase in these permits have actually reduced the murder rate by that much over 8 years, and which the "paper" states was the case? Is there correlation between these two data sets? OK, lets entertain the position that that type of correlation is valid statistically and stands on its own.

Well, lets make another comparison involving guns and murder rates using the very same FBI data tables this group used, but from a different time and one other data set for comparison with the murder rate. First, here are the links for the FBI data:

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl01.xls

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/1tabledatadecoverviewpdf/table_1_crime_in_the_united_states_by_volume_and_rate_per_100000_inhabitants_1994-2013.xls


Following the very same "logic" used in the "paper", there must be a correlation between gun control laws and the murder rate. In 1993 the Gun Control Act of 1968 was amended by the "Brady Act". In 1993, the FBI documented murder rate per 100k was 9.5%, which fell to 5.6% 8 years later in 2001; the same 8 year span set out in the "paper". Drawing the same conclusion as in the "paper", the Brady Act reduced the murder rate by 41%.

Therefore, both conceal-carry and gun control regulations are effective in reducing the murder rate, BUT gun control legislation is more effective than conceal-carry permitting!!!!

Are either of the first or second correlation conclusions statistically true? Of course not!

Is the final conclusion drawn from those correlations statistically true? Again, NO! The product is false. There is no statistical correlation!!!!

An attempt to correlate two data sets, in and of itself alone by simple comparison of those two data sets over time, does NOT convey nor imply causation. In statistics, that is expressed in Latin as "cum hoc ergo propter hoc". With regards to the "paper" one variable when compared with a second variable does not imply one supports the other in the conclusion of a causation.

The "PAPER" is a product of the "Crime Prevention Research Center", a gun lobby organization headed by John Lott, a long time NRA shill!

 

[percysunshine]

One way in which Obama has transformed America: Increased gun ownership and lower murder rates.

We're safer with More Guns!

Since President Obama’s election the number of concealed handgun permits has soared, growing from 4.6 million in 2007 to over 12.8 million this year. Among the findings in our report:

-- The number of concealed handgun permits is increasing at an ever- increasing rate. Over the past year, 1.7 million additional new permits have been issued – a 15.4% increase in just one single year. This is the largest ever single-year increase in the number of concealed handgun permits.

-- 5.2% of the total adult population has a permit.

-- Five states now have more than 10% of their adult population with concealed handgun permits.

-- In ten states, a permit is no longer required to carry in all or virtually all of the state. This is a major reason why legal carrying handguns is growing so much faster than the number of permits.

-- Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%.

-- Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.

-- Between 2007 and 2014, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.2 (preliminary estimates) per 100,000. This represents a 25% drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 156%. Overall violent crime also fell by 25 percent over that period of time.

-- States with the largest increase in permits have seen the largest relative drops in murder rates.

-- Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott John E Whitley Rebekah C. Riley SSRN

This fails as a confusion of correlation and causation fallacy, there is no evidence presented in the cited article establishing a direct link between an increase in the number of concealed weapons permits and a 'decrease' in crime.

Nor is any direct link established indicating that the increase in concealed weapons permits has anything to do with the president.

In fact, more recent studies and analysis indicate that the research cited in the article is inaccurate, such as that by John R. Lott, Jr. and David B. Mustard, and that more concealed weapons permits do not result in a decrease in crime:

“In 2005, the Nation Research Council published a large report including a section that was designed to definitively resolve the question. All but one of the panel's 18 members concluded that existing research was insufficient to say much of anything about a causal connection between crime and right-to-carry laws.”

More guns less crime Not exactly. - The Washington Post

Last, the Crime Prevention Research Center is a well established rightwing organization, with a reputation for distorting facts concerning firearms regulation and issuing misleading studies and research, as well as exhibiting an overall unwarranted hostility toward necessary, proper, and Constitutional gun laws; the CPRC is completely devoid of credibility and merit.

.
A confusion of correlation and causation has never bothered the political left before. In fact, it has been a staple of the left.

Why should this be an issue now?

.

 

[boedicca]

One way in which Obama has transformed America: Increased gun ownership and lower murder rates.

We're safer with More Guns!

Since President Obama’s election the number of concealed handgun permits has soared, growing from 4.6 million in 2007 to over 12.8 million this year. Among the findings in our report:

-- The number of concealed handgun permits is increasing at an ever- increasing rate. Over the past year, 1.7 million additional new permits have been issued – a 15.4% increase in just one single year. This is the largest ever single-year increase in the number of concealed handgun permits.

-- 5.2% of the total adult population has a permit.

-- Five states now have more than 10% of their adult population with concealed handgun permits.

-- In ten states, a permit is no longer required to carry in all or virtually all of the state. This is a major reason why legal carrying handguns is growing so much faster than the number of permits.

-- Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%.

-- Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.

-- Between 2007 and 2014, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.2 (preliminary estimates) per 100,000. This represents a 25% drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 156%. Overall violent crime also fell by 25 percent over that period of time.

-- States with the largest increase in permits have seen the largest relative drops in murder rates.

-- Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott John E Whitley Rebekah C. Riley SSRN

Comparing the decrease of 25% in the murder rate with the rapid increase in conceal-carry permits over the last 8 years means what? Is the reader to be lead to the conclusion that the increase in these permits have actually reduced the murder rate by that much over 8 years, and which the "paper" states was the case? Is there correlation between these two data sets? OK, lets entertain the position that that type of correlation is valid statistically and stands on its own.

Well, lets make another comparison involving guns and murder rates using the very same FBI data tables this group used, but from a different time and one other data set for comparison with the murder rate. First, here are the links for the FBI data:

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl01.xls

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/1tabledatadecoverviewpdf/table_1_crime_in_the_united_states_by_volume_and_rate_per_100000_inhabitants_1994-2013.xls


Following the very same "logic" used in the "paper", there must be a correlation between gun control laws and the murder rate. In 1993 the Gun Control Act of 1968 was amended by the "Brady Act". In 1993, the FBI documented murder rate per 100k was 9.5%, which fell to 5.6% 8 years later in 2001; the same 8 year span set out in the "paper". Drawing the same conclusion as in the "paper", the Brady Act reduced the murder rate by 41%.

Therefore, both conceal-carry and gun control regulations are effective in reducing the murder rate, BUT gun control legislation is more effective than conceal-carry permitting!!!!

Are either of the first or second correlation conclusions statistically true? Of course not!

Is the final conclusion drawn from those correlations statistically true? Again, NO! The product is false. There is no statistical correlation!!!!

An attempt to correlate two data sets, in and of itself alone by simple comparison of those two data sets over time, does NOT convey nor imply causation. In statistics, that is expressed in Latin as "cum hoc ergo propter hoc". With regards to the "paper" one variable when compared with a second variable does not imply one supports the other in the conclusion of a causation.

The "PAPER" is a product of the "Crime Prevention Research Center", a gun lobby organization headed by John Lott, a long time NRA shill!

^^^ Gun-hating Shill^^^

 

[TheOldSchool]

Let's end our exorbitantly expensive, War on Drugs to find out.

As long as we enforce border security, that's fine with me.

Ending the war on drugs would immediately improve border security.

 

[Ernie S.]

Let's end our exorbitantly expensive, War on Drugs to find out.

As long as we enforce border security, that's fine with me.

Ending the war on drugs would immediately improve border security.

It would improve USMB too, by rendering most of our Libbies too stoned to type.

 

[boedicca]

Let's end our exorbitantly expensive, War on Drugs to find out.

As long as we enforce border security, that's fine with me.

Ending the war on drugs would immediately improve border security.

No it wouldn't. Stopping the enforcement of drug laws would make it less risky to cross the border carrying drugs.

 

[boedicca]

Let's end our exorbitantly expensive, War on Drugs to find out.

As long as we enforce border security, that's fine with me.

Ending the war on drugs would immediately improve border security.

It would improve USMB too, by rendering most of our Libbies too stoned to type.

I suspect that they are already quite stoned, bub.

 

[charwin95]

More guns makes people safer.
Let's see....there's so much guns in Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit just to name a few.... Is that mean I'm safe to walk on these city streets.

 

[Ernie S.]

Old Fool is still typing....

 

[Ernie S.]

More guns makes people safer.
Let's see....there's so much guns in Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit just to name a few.... Is that mean I'm safe to walk on these city streets.

We are talking about concealed carry permits.... You know, where people are LEGALLY allowed to possess and carry a weapon? Or can't you see the difference?

 

[TheOldSchool]

Let's end our exorbitantly expensive, War on Drugs to find out.

As long as we enforce border security, that's fine with me.

Ending the war on drugs would immediately improve border security.

No it wouldn't. Stopping the enforcement of drug laws would make it less risky to cross the border carrying drugs.

It would remove the incentive to smuggle drugs over, and drastically weaken the cartels which are ruining the countries the immigrants are leaving. And that improvement in their home countries would lessen people's incentive to leave and come to the U.S. illegally.

It is estimated that marijuana legalization in Washington and Colorado is costing the cartels over a billion dollars each per year. And now that Oregon has legalized it, it'll probably be the same.

 

[boedicca]

More guns makes people safer.
Let's see....there's so much guns in Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit just to name a few.... Is that mean I'm safe to walk on these city streets.

In Chicago, crime has dropped now that people are able to get conceal carry permits.

...
Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low.

“It isn’t any coincidence crime rates started to go down when concealed carry was permitted. Just the idea that the criminals don’t know who’s armed and who isn’t has a deterrence effect,” said Richard Pearson, executive director of the Illinois State Rifle Association. “The police department hasn’t changed a single tactic — they haven’t announced a shift in policy or of course — and yet you have these incredible numbers.”

As of July 29 the state had 83,183 applications for concealed carry and had issued 68,549 licenses. By the end of the year, Mr. Pearson estimates, 100,000 Illinois citizens will be packing. When Illinois began processing requests in January, gun training and shooting classes — which are required for the application — were filling up before the rifle association was able to schedule them, Mr. Pearson said....

Chicago crime rate drops as concealed carry gun permit applications surge - Washington Times


Really, this is shooting a fish in a barrel. A search engine would easily have revealed this info if you had bothered to do a little homework before spewing your uninformed opinion.

 

[ThoughtCrimes]

One way in which Obama has transformed America: Increased gun ownership and lower murder rates.

We're safer with More Guns!

Since President Obama’s election the number of concealed handgun permits has soared, growing from 4.6 million in 2007 to over 12.8 million this year. Among the findings in our report:

-- The number of concealed handgun permits is increasing at an ever- increasing rate. Over the past year, 1.7 million additional new permits have been issued – a 15.4% increase in just one single year. This is the largest ever single-year increase in the number of concealed handgun permits.

-- 5.2% of the total adult population has a permit.

-- Five states now have more than 10% of their adult population with concealed handgun permits.

-- In ten states, a permit is no longer required to carry in all or virtually all of the state. This is a major reason why legal carrying handguns is growing so much faster than the number of permits.

-- Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%.

-- Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.

-- Between 2007 and 2014, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.2 (preliminary estimates) per 100,000. This represents a 25% drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 156%. Overall violent crime also fell by 25 percent over that period of time.

-- States with the largest increase in permits have seen the largest relative drops in murder rates.

-- Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott John E Whitley Rebekah C. Riley SSRN

Comparing the decrease of 25% in the murder rate with the rapid increase in conceal-carry permits over the last 8 years means what? Is the reader to be lead to the conclusion that the increase in these permits have actually reduced the murder rate by that much over 8 years, and which the "paper" states was the case? Is there correlation between these two data sets? OK, lets entertain the position that that type of correlation is valid statistically and stands on its own.

Well, lets make another comparison involving guns and murder rates using the very same FBI data tables this group used, but from a different time and one other data set for comparison with the murder rate. First, here are the links for the FBI data:

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl01.xls

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/1tabledatadecoverviewpdf/table_1_crime_in_the_united_states_by_volume_and_rate_per_100000_inhabitants_1994-2013.xls


Following the very same "logic" used in the "paper", there must be a correlation between gun control laws and the murder rate. In 1993 the Gun Control Act of 1968 was amended by the "Brady Act". In 1993, the FBI documented murder rate per 100k was 9.5%, which fell to 5.6% 8 years later in 2001; the same 8 year span set out in the "paper". Drawing the same conclusion as in the "paper", the Brady Act reduced the murder rate by 41%.

Therefore, both conceal-carry and gun control regulations are effective in reducing the murder rate, BUT gun control legislation is more effective than conceal-carry permitting!!!!

Are either of the first or second correlation conclusions statistically true? Of course not!

Is the final conclusion drawn from those correlations statistically true? Again, NO! The product is false. There is no statistical correlation!!!!

An attempt to correlate two data sets, in and of itself alone by simple comparison of those two data sets over time, does NOT convey nor imply causation. In statistics, that is expressed in Latin as "cum hoc ergo propter hoc". With regards to the "paper" one variable when compared with a second variable does not imply one supports the other in the conclusion of a causation.

The "PAPER" is a product of the "Crime Prevention Research Center", a gun lobby organization headed by John Lott, a long time NRA shill!

^^^ Gun-hating Shill^^^

Where is your data for that conclusion? Don't have any, HUH!

You do understand that a person can be pro Amendment II and abhor gun lobby propaganda at the same time, do you not?

You're simply pissed because I pointed to the logical errors in that "paper" and somehow that may put a taint on your credibility. Well, it could so do some freakin' research before you post garbage!