Moodys on effective stimulus methods

[Truthmatters]

http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/assissing-the-impact-of-the-fiscal-stimulus.pdf

They studied what types of stimulus work to create more dollar bang per buck.

UI benifits return 1.64 per buck
Food stamps return 1.73 per buck
General state aid return 1.36 per busk
Infrastructure spending return 1.59 per buck




Permenent tas cuts?????

well they return 0.30 per buck

 

[Truthmatters]

Please just for once lets do what works instead of what you wish worked.

 

[Skull Pilot]

I'll have to look more closely at the study.

Surely other things besides government spending affect GDP and just how are those other things filtered out of the numbers?

 

[Truthmatters]

I hope you and everyone takes a good hard look at the study.

I hope we Stop doing what we have been doing which is killing this country.

Lets spend on things that actually give US a good return, Infrastructure, foodstamps, UI and the like and STOP doing endless tax cuts which give us NO fucking return.

Your team screwed us up and did iditotic things like Cutting taxes in the middle of two wars.

Do you have any idea how much of a historical NO NO that one is ?

For some reason the republicans would just call you names when you pointed it out at the time.

Can we return to sanity now that the Dems won?

No more disastorous idiot policy please.

Lets Do What Fucking Works for just ONCE please?

 

[dilloduck]

I hope you and everyone takes a good hard look at the study.

I hope we Stop doing what we have been doing which is killing this country.

Lets spend on things that actually give US a good return, Infrastructure, foodstamps, UI and the like and STOP doing endless tax cuts which give us NO fucking return.

Your team screwed us up and did iditotic things like Cutting taxes in the middle of two wars.

Do you have any idea how much of a historical NO NO that one is ?

For some reason the republicans would just call you names when you pointed it out at the time.

Can we return to sanity now that the Dems won?

No more disastorous idiot policy please.

Lets Do What Fucking Works for just ONCE please?

Again---tell it to the democrats-----what are you whining here for ?

 

[editec]

The multiplier effect of stimulus money will continue to help the economy UNTIL people step into WALMARTS to buy something.

Then the multiplier effect very quickly goes to China.

And FWIW, it's not just WALMARTS it's damned near any store because so little is really made in the USA that everywhere you go the stores are stocking stuff made offshore.

 

[Truthmatters]

I hope you and everyone takes a good hard look at the study.

I hope we Stop doing what we have been doing which is killing this country.

Lets spend on things that actually give US a good return, Infrastructure, foodstamps, UI and the like and STOP doing endless tax cuts which give us NO fucking return.

Your team screwed us up and did iditotic things like Cutting taxes in the middle of two wars.

Do you have any idea how much of a historical NO NO that one is ?

For some reason the republicans would just call you names when you pointed it out at the time.

Can we return to sanity now that the Dems won?

No more disastorous idiot policy please.

Lets Do What Fucking Works for just ONCE please?

Again---tell it to the democrats-----what are you whining here for ?

Because your team is trying to stop anything that works.

You know the ones that fucked everything up?

We will have to dump your asses at the curb and do it ourselves but I dont want to hear a god damned word about BiPartisan promises form you and your buddies asses when we do.

Its obvious your team doesnt wnat to do anything that is good for this country and the whole country is about to see that as plain as day.

 

[dilloduck]

I hope you and everyone takes a good hard look at the study.

I hope we Stop doing what we have been doing which is killing this country.

Lets spend on things that actually give US a good return, Infrastructure, foodstamps, UI and the like and STOP doing endless tax cuts which give us NO fucking return.

Your team screwed us up and did iditotic things like Cutting taxes in the middle of two wars.

Do you have any idea how much of a historical NO NO that one is ?

For some reason the republicans would just call you names when you pointed it out at the time.

Can we return to sanity now that the Dems won?

No more disastorous idiot policy please.

Lets Do What Fucking Works for just ONCE please?

Again---tell it to the democrats-----what are you whining here for ?

Because your team is trying to stop anything that works.

You know the ones that fucked everything up?

We will have to dump your asses at the curb and do it ourselves but I dont want to hear a god damned word about BiPartisan promises form you and your buddies asses when we do.

Its obvious your team doesnt wnat to do anything that is good for this country and the whole country is about to see that as plain as day.

I don't have a "team" --whatever --whine away.

 

[Truthmatters]

Sure you dont.

No one is a republican anymore huh?

 

[Skull Pilot]

I hope you and everyone takes a good hard look at the study.

I hope we Stop doing what we have been doing which is killing this country.

Lets spend on things that actually give US a good return, Infrastructure, foodstamps, UI and the like and STOP doing endless tax cuts which give us NO fucking return.

Your team screwed us up and did iditotic things like Cutting taxes in the middle of two wars.

Do you have any idea how much of a historical NO NO that one is ?

For some reason the republicans would just call you names when you pointed it out at the time.

Can we return to sanity now that the Dems won?

No more disastorous idiot policy please.

Lets Do What Fucking Works for just ONCE please?

I am on nobody's "team"

i am on my team. i am looking out for myself, my family and my future. If i don't who will...You?

And I will take a $1.10 return on a dollar of MY money before I give it to the fucking government to get what they say is a $1.70 return.

 

[Truthmatters]

See here is more of you huh?


Why dont we do what will work?

I sure dont remember the outcries from people like you guys when we were doing tax cuts in the middle of two wars?

Its the consumate NO NO for any economy and you guys were just fine with it. But no no you are not on any team.

I dont care if you call yuorself republicans or buttwinks.

I want to have my country do what is right and what works.

Now if you really have no TEAM then shut the fuck up about tax cuts , THEY DONT RETURN in this situation just like in the middle of two wars.........OH YEAH we are still in the middle of two fucking wars huh?

 

[dilloduck]

d oyou get al lred in the face and spit when you post this shit ?

 

[Truthmatters]

No its more when post facts and you buttwinks keep spouting your idiotic "plans" that have already failed this country.

I love the idea that your idiotic posts make a nice contrast to the sound base of facts provided though.

I feel all calmed down when I see the guests and non posting members looking over the posts.

I know they see it too.

 

[Skull Pilot]

See here is more of you huh?


Why dont we do what will work?

I sure dont remember the outcries from people like you guys when we were doing tax cuts in the middle of two wars?

Its the consumate NO NO for any economy and you guys were just fine with it. But no no you are not on any team.

I dont care if you call yuorself republicans or buttwinks.

I want to have my country do what is right and what works.

Now if you really have no TEAM then shut the fuck up about tax cuts , THEY DONT RETURN in this situation just like in the middle of two wars.........OH YEAH we are still in the middle of two fucking wars huh?

My position is that we would all be better off if we ALL keep more of what we earn.
I have no problem with Unemployment insurance, in fact my business pays SUTA and FUTA taxes every year, I think they are too high but i pay them.

The best hedge against unemployment is to save your own money. You know 6 month's worth of expenses that plus 6 months of government benefits should be enough to get a person through a job loss.

The best way for people to be able to save is to let them keep more of their own money.

But god forbid the people didn't need the government to take care of them. That would be horrible wouldn't it?

 

[Truthmatters]

Then you would be wrong.

In this situation with TWO wars being funded and a massive economic downturn which is likely to turn into a depression before long, if it isnt already one, there IS NO LOGIC in Tax Cuts because they will not return ANYTHING to the economy.

Stop pretending Tax Cuts are the ONLY answer to every question ...ITS IDIOTIC!


This is why you can call yourself anything you want but you are effectively a republican.

Its there only issue and their only answer to EVERYTHING even two wars.

This is completely unsound and based in NO fact.

Look arround , this country is all fucked up and the reason it is is because of buttwinks accepting the idea that a tax cut is the answer to everything.

 

[Gord]

The threat of recession is evident
in the recent substantial increase in
unemployment. The jobless rate has
risen 0.6 percentage points from its
4.4% cyclical low last March to 5%
in December. Recessions are always
preceded by such a rise, and one has
never occurred without a recession
ensuing (see Chart 1).

A .6% rise from 4.4% is a 13.6% increase. Unless I am reading this chart wrong I don't see that percentage increase before any of the indicated recessions. I question whether the author can even read his own chart.

I also question how he thinks he knows how people will use the money. Will interest rates rise and they pay off debt? Will deflated prices encourage or discourage consumption? Will the market begin to rebound and encourage investment? How can this guy come up with specific percentage changes in GDP growth without a tremendous amount of presumptions built in?

This study is also done for a period of high oil and commodity prices and a threat of inflation. This not the case now. Indeed the threat of deflation is very strong.

Table 1: Fiscal Economic Bang for the Buck
One year $ change in real GDP for a given $ reduction in federal tax revenue or increase
in spending

Tax Cuts
Non-refundable lump-sum tax rebate 1.02
Refundable lump-sum tax rebate 1.26

Temporary tax cuts
payroll tax holiday 1.29
Across the board tax cut 1.03
Accelerated depreciation 0.27

Permanent tax cuts
Extend alternative minimum tax patch 0.48
Make Bush income tax cuts permanent 0.29
Make dividend and capital gains tax cuts permanent 0.37
Cut in corporate tax rate 0.30
Spending Increases

Extending UI benefits 1.64
Temporary increase in food stamps 1.73
General aid to state governments 1.36
Increased infrastructure spending 1.59

The above chart makes no sense. How can making Bush's income tax and dividend and capital gains tax cuts permanent cause a rise in the GDP of 0.29% and .37%? For the duration of the period for which the study applies Bush's tax cuts are in effect already. They do not expire until 2010.

There are way too many suspicious questions about this study to accept it at face value. And anyone who thinks they can make rock solid predictions like this should be putting their money in the appropriate market and making billions. Of course then they wouldn't be working for Moody, would they?

 

[Truthmatters]

Read the fucking report and you will have all that clarified for you.

 

[Skull Pilot]

Then you would be wrong.

In this situation with TWO wars being funded and a massive economic downturn which is likely to turn into a depression before long, if it isnt already one, there IS NO LOGIC in Tax Cuts because they will not return ANYTHING to the economy.

Stop pretending Tax Cuts are the ONLY answer to every question ...ITS IDIOTIC!


This is why you can call yourself anything you want but you are effectively a republican.

Its there only issue and their only answer to EVERYTHING even two wars.

This is completely unsound and based in NO fact.

Look arround , this country is all fucked up and the reason it is is because of buttwinks accepting the idea that a tax cut is the answer to everything.

Wrong!

Tax cuts AND reduced government waste, spending and corruption are the answer.

 

[Gord]

Read the fucking report and you will have all that clarified for you.

I did. And there is no clarification. The varibles involved would be astrnomical in size. That would mean indulging in presumption after presumption after presumption to come up with a conclusion. Essentially one could get whatever conclusion one wanted by adjusting the presumptions beforehand. I wouldn't put any stock in this at all. It's just one man's opinion based on his biases and presumptions. It coundn't be otherwise.

 

[Truthmatters]

Go ahead and say it, you know you want to.