Monte Carlo simulation indicates race at dead heat - Obama with 50.7% odds.

[OohPooPahDoo]

Based on the same method used here:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...-for-romney-to-win-obama-has-92-2-chance.html

my Monte Carlo model now indicates the race is at a dead heat. OBama has barely more than 50.7 % odds of winning the EC, Romney 48.5%. The remaining 0.8% is the chance of a 269-269 tie, in which case Romney would almost certainly win the House vote.

The electoral college vote tally stands at Obama with 271 +/- 51.

 

[Charles_Main]

Sounds about right, but anyone who knows anything about Presidential Election History. Will tell you that if the Incumbent is not ahead by at least 2 or 3 at this point. They are in Serious Trouble. The Last min Undecideds usually break heavily for the Challenger.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

Sounds about right, but anyone who knows anything about Presidential Election History. Will tell you that if the Incumbent is not ahead by at least 2 or 3 at this point. They are in Serious Trouble. The Last min Undecideds usually break heavily for the Challenger.

If that information is correct then the market which determines the probabilies have already taken this into account.