Monte Carlo simulation indicates race at dead heat - Obama with 50.7% odds.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by OohPooPahDoo, Oct 12, 2012.

  1. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    Based on the same method used here:
    http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...-for-romney-to-win-obama-has-92-2-chance.html

    my Monte Carlo model now indicates the race is at a dead heat. OBama has barely more than 50.7 % odds of winning the EC, Romney 48.5%. The remaining 0.8% is the chance of a 269-269 tie, in which case Romney would almost certainly win the House vote.

    The electoral college vote tally stands at Obama with 271 +/- 51.
     
  2. Charles_Main
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    Charles_Main AR15 Owner

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    Sounds about right, but anyone who knows anything about Presidential Election History. Will tell you that if the Incumbent is not ahead by at least 2 or 3 at this point. They are in Serious Trouble. The Last min Undecideds usually break heavily for the Challenger.
     
  3. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    If that information is correct then the market which determines the probabilies have already taken this into account.
     

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