Mit

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Feb 20, 2011.

  1. Old Rocks
    Offline

    Old Rocks Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    46,465
    Thanks Received:
    5,410
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Portland, Ore.
    Ratings:
    +10,301
    MIT Global Change Program | Report 169

    Report 169
    Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters
    by Sokolov, A.P., P.H. Stone, C.E. Forest, R.G. Prinn, M.C. Sarofim, M. Webster, S. Paltsev, C.A. Schlosser, D. Kicklighter, S. Dutkiewicz, J. Reilly, C. Wang, B. Felzer, J. Melillo, H.D. Jacoby (January 2009)
    Joint Program Report Series, 44 pages, 2009

    Superseded by Reprint 2009-12

    Abstract
    The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model's first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to the model and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections, e.g., the median surface warming in 2091 to 2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the 20th century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting GDP growth which eliminated many low emission scenarios. However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger 20th century ocean warming, are used to determine the input climate parameters, the median projected warning at the end of the 21st century is only 4.1°C. Nevertheless all our simulations have a very small probability of warming less than 2.4°C, the lower bound of the IPCC AR4 projected likely range for the A1FI scenario, which has forcing very similar to our median projection. The probability distribution for the surface warming produced by our analysis is more symmetric than the distribution assumed by the IPCC due to a different feedback between the climate and the carbon cycle, resulting from a different treatment of the carbon-nitrogen interaction in the terrestrial ecosystem.
     
  2. rightwinger
    Offline

    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    120,218
    Thanks Received:
    19,817
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    NJ & MD
    Ratings:
    +45,310
    Science is for loser geeks

    I only believe what Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck tell me
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
  3. Mini 14
    Offline

    Mini 14 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2010
    Messages:
    3,947
    Thanks Received:
    570
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +570
    [​IMG]
     
  4. rightwinger
    Offline

    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    120,218
    Thanks Received:
    19,817
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    NJ & MD
    Ratings:
    +45,310
    MIT is an elitist school filled with left leaning scientists

    I would rather believe what a good Christian school has to say about global warming
     
  5. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,409
    As usual, Old Rocksinthehead conveniently ignores the people at MIT who hold the view that anthropogenic gullible warming is pure bunk.
     
  6. rightwinger
    Offline

    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    120,218
    Thanks Received:
    19,817
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    NJ & MD
    Ratings:
    +45,310
    Why don't you start a thread on it?

    List all the MIT professors who think it is all bunk
     
  7. Big Black Dog
    Offline

    Big Black Dog Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    22,906
    Thanks Received:
    5,107
    Trophy Points:
    260
    Ratings:
    +5,702
    I'm not going to be alive in the year 2091 or 2100 so I could give a rat's ass how warm it is going to be. On top of this, the prediction is just pure crap cause MIT doesn't have a clue. More Al Gore folks shaking dead chickens and chanting...
     
  8. rightwinger
    Offline

    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    120,218
    Thanks Received:
    19,817
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    NJ & MD
    Ratings:
    +45,310
    I agree....

    Those geeks at MIT tried to warn us that cigarettes cause cancer too
     
  9. Chris
    Offline

    Chris Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2008
    Messages:
    23,154
    Thanks Received:
    1,958
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +2,089
    :clap2:
     
  10. elvis
    Offline

    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    25,882
    Thanks Received:
    4,303
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +4,303
    Don't worry, Kirky. The clap is curable.
     

Share This Page