'Mischief' voters push Paul to front of GOP race

Jroc

יעקב כהן
Oct 19, 2010
19,815
6,469
390
Michigan
Democrat mischief voters.:rolleyes:


Ron Paul is surging in the Republican presidential race. Just not among Republicans.

The Texas congressman is leading some polls in Iowa and is in a tie for second in New Hampshire. A candidacy once dismissed as sideshow is now being taken very seriously; the front page of Monday's Des Moines Register featured a huge spread under the headline "COULD RON PAUL WIN?"

Given Paul's views on the Fed, the gold standard and social issues, not to mention his isolationist foreign policy, the polls have left some politicos wondering whether Republican voters have somehow swerved off the rails. But there's another question that should be asked first: Who are Ron Paul's supporters? Are they, in fact, Republicans?

In an analysis accompanying his most recent survey in Iowa, pollster Scott Rasmussen noted, "Romney leads, with Gingrich in second, among those who consider themselves Republicans. Paul has a wide lead among non-Republicans who are likely to participate in the caucus."

The same is true in New Hampshire. A poll released Monday by the Boston Globe and the University of New Hampshire shows Paul leading among Democrats and independents who plan to vote in the January 10 primary. But among Republicans, Paul is a distant third -- 33 points behind leader Mitt Romney.

In South Carolina, "Paul's support is higher among those who usually don't vote in GOP primary elections," notes David Woodard, who runs the Palmetto Poll at Clemson University.

In a hotly-contested Republican race, it appears that only about half of Paul's supporters are Republicans. In Iowa, according to Rasmussen, just 51 percent of Paul supporters consider themselves Republicans. In New Hampshire, the number is 56 percent, according to Andrew Smith, head of the University of New Hampshire poll.

The same New Hampshire survey found that 87 percent of the people who support Romney consider themselves Republicans. For Newt Gingrich, it's 85 percent.

So who is supporting Paul? In New Hampshire, Paul is the choice of just 13 percent of Republicans, according to the new poll, while he is the favorite of 36 percent of independents and 26 percent of Democrats who intend to vote in the primary. Paul leads in both non-Republican categories.

'Mischief' voters push Paul to front of GOP race | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner
 
Considering the registered Republican base that gave us McCain/Palin 08, I'd say what's happening today is quite an improvement.
 
I'm sure that there are some voters who are deliberately planning to support a weak or divisive candidate, but I expect that this accounts for very little of Paul's support. Mostly, the Democrats who vote for him will be doing so because they support at least some of his policies.

The RNC could make it more difficult for Democrats to vote in their primaries or caucuses (by ending open primaries and/or making it more difficult to switch registration at the last minute). They don't do that because they know that their candidate will ultimately have to appeal to people who aren't registered Republicans. Allowing such people to participate to a degree in their primary caucus ensures that a stronger general election candidate will usually be chosen.
 
I'm sure that there are some voters who are deliberately planning to support a weak or divisive candidate, but I expect that this accounts for very little of Paul's support. Mostly, the Democrats who vote for him will be doing so because they support at least some of his policies.

The RNC could make it more difficult for Democrats to vote in their primaries or caucuses (by ending open primaries and/or making it more difficult to switch registration at the last minute). They don't do that because they know that their candidate will ultimately have to appeal to people who aren't registered Republicans. Allowing such people to participate to a degree in their primary caucus ensures that a stronger general election candidate will usually be chosen.

Umm....Yeah thats why they are voting for Ron Paul, kinda blows that out of the water doesn't it?
 

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