Minnesota will be the surpise state this election

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by TheGreatGatsby, Nov 2, 2012.

  1. TheGreatGatsby
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    TheGreatGatsby Gold Member

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    Indiana was the surprise state in 2008. Few people thought it'd go for Obama.

    In 2012, I think Minnesota will be the surprise state. It's going Romney.
     
  2. auditor0007
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    auditor0007 Gold Member

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    :laugh2:
     
  3. kiwiman127
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    kiwiman127 Comfortably Moderate Supporting Member

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    I have my doubts.
    Obama will ride hugely popular Senator Amy Klobuchar's coattails as she is projected to get 65% of the vote in her re-election bid to the US Senate.
     
  4. AceRothstein
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    AceRothstein Gold Member

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    Obama was actually ahead in Indiana in a few polls in '08. Romney has been within the margin of error in 1 poll in Minnesota. Not going to happen.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2012
  5. The Infidel
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    The Infidel EVIL CONSERVATIVE

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    We shall see.
     
  6. DiamondDave
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    DiamondDave Army Vet

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    I just don't see it
     
  7. TheGreatGatsby
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    TheGreatGatsby Gold Member

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    Minnesota is very uppity; but less partisan than other states. That's why a 3rd party candidate like Jessie Ventura came along and that's why it'll happen again probably. But a lot of people split their votes between the parties there; even when they are often very different. And there is never a sure fire way of knowing what'll tickle there fancy. Look at Franken, Pawlenty, Ventura; all very different.

    Obama was hugely popular in Minnesota in 08 and he still only won by 9 points. I expect that margin to be naturally diminished just like in every state he won. Then, Romney is advertising in the Twin Cities market to reach the Western Wisconsin market and that's going to have an effect.

    If Romney doesn't pull it off; I believe he could have. He just needed to have visited there. Minnesotans love that personal stumping.

    Also, the economy has been very tough in Minnesota. I think there'll a lot of blue Dog Dems in Minnesota going for Romney. I think the key would be, if independents exceed poll projections. It's only at 13 percent for Romney if I recall correctly.
     
  8. Oddball
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    Oddball Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    Romney made a big ad buy on Twin Cities teevee stations.

    It could be because those stations reach the Hudson and western rural Wisconsin areas, it could be because they have some internals that tell them that they're competitive.

    Who knows?
     
  9. Oddball
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    Oddball Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    Ventura one largely because he inspired a 15% higher than normal turnout, almost all of which voted for him.
     
  10. TheGreatGatsby
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    TheGreatGatsby Gold Member

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    Not to mention Bachman and Klobuchar being polar opposites and both being popular.

    But also, the reporting in the newspapers (like many Midwest newspapers) is more straight up; more empirical analysis. A lot of numbers people that went for Obama will be shifting Romney.
     

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