Millions on East Coast could be in Danger!

[JimH52]

Sandy is a monster storm and could very well be heading to New York City.

It is safe to say that lives are in danger.

 

[depotoo]

Sandy is a monster storm and could very well be heading to New York City.

It is safe to say that lives are in danger.

Yes, here are some important links -
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Mount Holly, NJ bureau of the NWS

Washington, D.C. will not escape Hurricane Sandy: latest storm scenarios - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING
WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

THE WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH
INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR
WINDS...THEY INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 30S ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST
APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION
OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL
FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
DEGREE OF IMPACT DUE TO THE STILL WIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE
LANDFALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.

(many areas will be affected - not just the above, but to give an idea)
National Weather Service Text Product Display

National Hurricane Center
Special Weather Statements - NOAA's National Weather Service
Forecast Discussion - NOAA's National Weather Service

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1136 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED COASTAL
FLOOD EVENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING STARTING WITH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE AND BECOMING
INCREASING LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD FOR SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS THE STRONGEST WINDS BEGIN AFFECTING
THE AREA. THEN THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SANDY WILL
DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AND WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING
AND POSSIBLE DAMAGE IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS.

HAND IN HAND WITH THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE INCREASINGLY HIGH
SURF BATTERING THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR BEACH EROSION...LOCALIZED WASHOVERS...AND DAMAGE
TO VULNERABLE SHORELINE STRUCTURES.

Keep checking the links for updates


Be prepared for areas affected, massive storm surge as well as massive waves on top of the surge, depending on final angle of approach. Astronomical high tides were already predicted for this time period, before Sandy. Also be prepared for possibly many days, even weeks without power. Have water, food and gas on hand for generators, batteries, etc. to help make it through. If you are in an evacuation area - evacuate. Don't forget to prepare for pets as well. Good luck to all.

 

[strollingbones]

i would be filling empty containrs and the bath tub for toilet flushing......

get as much clean as you can .clothes etc.....and get ready to do it 'old school'

 

[depotoo]

Mandatory Evacuation Order Issued For Fire Island « CBS New York

 

[BecauseIKnow]

Not good.

 

[depotoo]

 

[depotoo]

this went out in an e-mail from a respected pro-met Jeff Lindner-
Historic storm system heading for the mid Atlantic and NE US.

Potentially life threatening destructive storm surge event for the New Jersey and New York coasts.

Discussion:

The transition of Sandy from a pure tropical cyclone toward more of mid-latitude cyclone has begun. Sandy is still located near the northern Bahamas this morning, but satellite and radar images along with recon data suggest that the system has made the expected turn toward the NNE and this motion should continue with an increase in forward speed. Aircraft data also shows the wind field is greatly expanding with TS force winds extending outward 435 miles from the center with the highest winds located across the western and northwestern flank of the circulation where sporadic deep convection is found.

Across the north Atlantic and the US, the upper air pattern continues to “block” with massive high pressure building over eastern Canada and a strong trough (our cold front) pressing into the eastern US. A shortwave over the western states this morning will swing through the base of the main trough and tilt it from SE to NW over the SE and mid Atlantic starting tomorrow. Sandy will become captured by this titling and instead of pushed out to sea, make a hard left turn (NW) back toward the US mid-Atlantic and NE US coast between the trough to her SW and the blocking high to her NE. Global guidance is in very good agreement on this pattern and in fact has very little spread in the track solution given the complex interactions that will be in place. Models show Sandy moving NW to WNW toward the New Jersey coast and making landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning and then slowing down as she moves inland.

As for intensity, Sandy is gradually taking on more and more mid latitude influences although her center core remains “warm” or tropical. Jet stream phasing with the system is starting to occur with temperature gradient developing on her outer flanks of the large circulation. As Sandy moves northward this process will intensify has the warm Caribbean air mass clashes with a very cold polar air mass resulting in strong baroclinic intensification. Sandy will also be located in the favorable region of the trough and jet stream axis to promote surface deepening of a cyclone. Models continue to advertise “incredibly” low pressures with the ECMWF showing a record 942mb low near landfall on the New Jersey coast which is an astounding 30mb lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm and 6mb lower than anything ever recorded in the NE US.

Given the continued very good model agreement on both track and the forecasted extreme low pressures, confidence is building that an extremely rare powerful storm system will impact the NE and mid-Atlantic coast from Sunday-Thursday.

Impacts:

Major travel disruption is likely as numerous major E coast airports will not be able to sustain operations and this will have ripple effects across the nation. Additionally, widespread power outages and down trees will greatly hamper surface and rail travel across the entire region with widespread and potentially prolonged impacts to commerce.

This will be a long duration multi-day event with prolonged impacts over the entire area from North Carolina to Canada and extending inland into the OH valley affecting some 55-65 million people.

Coastal flooding or storm surge flooding appears to be significant especially for the New Jersey and New York (NYC and Long Island) coasts. The angle of approach this storm will be taking from (SE to NW) strikes the coast at a right angle instead of the usual grazing by of the coast most storms in this region take (SW to NE or parallel to the coast). This direct hit on the coast will drive onshore winds and massive amounts of Atlantic seawater toward the central and northern New Jersey coast and into the “L” shaped New York Bight area of southern New York City and western Long Island (a worst case track for this area, that has never occurred before with this strong of a storm system). The fetch of wind across the entire north Atlantic will drive large waves and surge to the coast and this will last for several high tide cycles. Tides will be at their maximum due to the full moon on Monday. Massive beach erosion is likely with coastal structures experiences significant damage many to the point of total collapse. Seawater inundation will be extensive and widespread and long lasting and in some places potentially record setting. Due to the rare track of this storm, some locations that have never before experienced coastal flooding, may flood with this event.

Winds of 50-60mph with gust to 70-80mph will battered a wide area for 24-48 hours. Expect widespread tree damage and power outages which could rival some of the largest power outages ever in the US. The prolonged nature of the event will result in trees giving way over time as the ground saturates from the heavy rainfall. Winds will be higher in an near tall high rise buildings where funneling will take place. Structure damage will be mainly from trees falling into buildings and to roofs from the wind itself.

Rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches will be common over a very large area with totals of 8-12 inches over New Jersey into southern PA and New York. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible as the tropical moisture from Sandy’s air mass crashes into the eastern slopes of the mountains and a stalled frontal boundary. Rainfall of this magnitude over an area of steep terrain will produce life threatening flash flooding and major river flooding.

Ocean seas will be building to staggering heights over the next few days. Already buoys north of the Bahamas have been reporting 30 foot seas, and Wave Watch III guidance is maxed out at 42-48 foot seas over the NW Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The expanding area of strong winds of 50-60mph and the massive fetch of wind all the way from Europe will produce very large swells. Would not be surprised to see reports of wave greater than 50-60 feet over the NW Atlantic. Some of this wave action and energy will be directed toward the US coastline and this will worsen the beach erosion. Large wave setup will also trap water levels near the coast and worsen the coastal flooding threat.

On the extreme SW flank of the storm heavy wet snow will fall over parts of OH and WV with totals of 1-2 feet possible.

Power outages will likely last for 1-2 weeks or longer

Large scale evacuation orders for the New Jersey coast will be underway today with portions of New York also likely requiring evacuation due to the potential for coastal storm surge inundation.

 

[Zander]

Maybe, maybe not.....

 

[strollingbones]

running from a hurricane is old hat for the east coast from va down....new to the north...

 

[depotoo]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.

from the NHC

 

[depotoo]

I remember when Republicans wanted to cut "disaster relief". They said the US shouldn't be a "nanny state". Eric Cantor was leading the charge, until his district was hit by an earthquake and then a hurricane. God, these Republicans. So awful.

absolutely ridiculous to make this political before the storm hits.

Let this thread be used to warn people of what is possible and how to prepare to be self sufficient for days as they need to as it could be difficult for help to get in immediately.

 

[depotoo]

I remember when Republicans wanted to cut "disaster relief". They said the US shouldn't be a "nanny state". Eric Cantor was leading the charge, until his district was hit by an earthquake and then a hurricane. God, these Republicans. So awful.

absolutely ridiculous to make this political before the storm hits.

Let this thread be used to warn people of what is possible and how to prepare to be self sufficient for days as they need to as it could be difficult for help to get in immediately.

Too late. Eric Cantor already said we need to cut disaster relief or tie it to some bill. Get it? He already said it. Past tense. It's been said. Pointing out what that ass hat said doesn't make me the bad guy. It makes those that defend him bad.

have you ever once heard about getting rid of the fraud, consolidating to be more efficient? If you honestly think this is the time and place, I feel sorry for you. And it shows you are not going to be affected by it, thus 'why should I care?'. Very shallow of you.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all that will be in its path. Please take the warnings seriously.

 

[depotoo]

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf
Mayor Bloomberg is warning all those in orange that evacuation may be needed
Governor Malloy: Hurricane Sandy Information
Information for Connecticut from the government

 

[depotoo]

The new storm surge forecasts using the 12Z run of the GFS model from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA's Meteorological Development Laboratory, are in. The peak storm surge from Sandy at The Battery in NYC is predicted to reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. The new forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy. I updated my post with the new graphic.

A couple of other points: the full moon is adding only about 5% to the height of the high tide--about 3 - 4".

A storm surge damage potential of 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6 sounds like a lot, but we won't be seeing the kind of extreme storm surge damage a Cat 3 storm with a lower number on that scale would cause.

Jeff Masters

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the U.S. | Weather Underground

 

[Mr. H.]

Yesterday we passed a convoy of utility trucks (about 20) on the interstate.
Bless 'em all.

 

[depotoo]

Quote:
Gov. Chris Christie ordered the mandatory evacuation starting at 4 p.m. Sunday of barrier islands from Sandy Hook south to Cape May as well as Atlantic City casinos. He declared the entire state under a state of emergency. .... "We should not underestimate the impact of this storm and we should not assume the predictions will be wrong," he said. "I know, I've lived here all my life too, everyone's saying 'Crap, this isn't going to happen. The weathermen always get it wrong and we'll just hang out and not really pay attention.' Please don't, ok? We have to be prepared for the worst here."


With Hurricane Sandy looming, Christie tells New Jerseyans to be smart | NJ.com

 

[depotoo]

Onslow Bay Outer buoy is showing 18.7 feet:
NDBC - Station 41036

Frying Pan Shoals buoy is at 20 feet:
NDBC - Station 41013

 

[Two Thumbs]

Dont worry

FEMA is on the job!!

ok ok, that might be cause for worry,

BUT

Obama lives in the area, so he will be sure to send them in early and over manned.

It is the cradle of liberalism after all, and PA is nearly a swing state, not like LA.

 

[WillowTree]

Stock up on some egss bread and oj. and good luck to all youse guys in the path of this storm. get some candles and whiskey too. don't forget the batteries.

 

[Zoom-boing]

While we're not in the direct path (we're nw suburbs of philly as opposed to down the shore/coast line) I'm fully expecting to lose power for an extended period of time which will translate to the heater, freezer, treadmill being trashed plus all the food in the chest and fridge freezers (sales last week, stocked up) going bad. Gaaaaaaa.

Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. Last year it was Irene but we kept power, just had the wind and rain. Poor Dio had just gotten snipped. Not a good time trying to get him to pee in all that. If the power stays on this time we'll be ok.