Middle East: U.S. have no reason to intervene

[Casper]

Valdai Club´s political expert Ariel Cohen says about MidEast turmoil:

The situation in the Middle East has fundamentally changed the political arrangements in the region. What we are witnessing is the end of the post- WWI and WWII, post-colonial order in the Maghreb and North Africa, especially in Egypt and Tunisia, but possibly also in some of the Gulf states.

At this point, we cannot be sure that there will be a successful transition to a Western-style, multi-party democracy because there is no historic precedent, historic memory, or democratic political culture in some of these countries.

Beyond that, the Obama Administration is very alert to issues of international law and the legitimacy of the use of force. I'm sure the White House and the State Department will consult our NATO allies, as well as UNSC members.

No need to worry...

Full version of his comment was originally given on valdaiclub.com

 

[waltky]

Saudi Arabia protest ban...

Saudi Arabia imposes ban on all protests
5 March 2011 - Saudi officials are aware of protests - sometimes focused at their country - building across the region

All protests and marches are to be banned in Saudi Arabia, the interior ministry has announced on state TV. Its statement said security forces would use all measures to prevent any attempt to disrupt public order. The announcement follows a series of protests by the kingdom's Shia minority in the oil-producing eastern province.

Last month, King Abdullah unveiled a series of benefits in an apparent bid to protect the kingdom from the revolts spreading throughout many Arab states. "Regulations in the kingdom forbid categorically all sorts of demonstrations, marches and sit-ins, as they contradict Islamic Sharia law and the values and traditions of Saudi society," the Saudi interior ministry statement said.

It added that police were "authorised by law to take all measures needed against those who try to break the law". The protests in the Eastern Province - where much of the country's crude oil is sourced - have been demanding the release of prisoners who demonstrators say have been held without trial.

The announcement of the crackdown on protests follows the return, last week, of King Abdullah to the capital after an absence of several months due to illness. He unveiled an additional $37bn (£22.7bn) in benefits for citizens, including a 15% pay rise for state employees, as well as extra funds for housing, studying abroad and social security.

BBC News - Saudi Arabia imposes ban on all protests

 

[waltky]

So much for the 'experts'...

ANALYSIS: Analysts say Saudi Arabia unlikely to catch the contagion of Arab revolutions
Fri, Mar 11, 2011 - Saudi Arabia, ahead of planned protests, seems unlikely to catch the contagion of Arab revolutions, US experts said as they stressed the enormous impact unrest there would have on the world economy.

Even if the world’s largest oil producer is eager to show it is different from the other Arab countries, it also has points in common with them, they said. Like Egypt or Tunisia, Saudi Arabia has many young people. Thirty-eight percent of Saudis are 14 years old or younger, according to figures from the CIA. Like their peers in other Arab countries, Saudi young people are turning increasingly to social networking sites like Facebook, which they used to organize protests last week in the eastern part of the desert kingdom.

Facebook activists have called for a “Day of Rage” and a “Saudi revolution” later this week. It’s on Facebook where aging princes face criticism. The oil wealth is also unequally distributed, consigning around 40 percent of the population to relative poverty. And rising food and other prices have fueled frustration. Stability until now has rested on the monarchy’s ability to cooperate with allied religious clerics, provide economic aid and deploy the security services.

“For the most part, people who are upset at what’s going on in the country or the policies of the government, they are not upset at the king and upset with the royal family,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analyst Christopher Boucek told reporters. “That’s a big difference. No one is calling for a revolution in Saudi Arabia.” He said that instead of calling for the removal of leaders — as the opposition has done in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya — Saudis are urging greater political liberalization and more progress on financial transparency.

The view is shared by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who cites numerous risk factors.

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Saudi Police Open Fire at Rally
Mar 10, 2011 - Saudi police have opened fire at a rally in the kingdom's east in an apparent escalation of efforts to stop planned protests.

Government officials have warned they will take strong action if activists take to the streets after increasing calls for large protests around the oil-rich kingdom to press for democratic reforms.

A witness in the eastern city of Qatif says gunfire and stun grenades were fired at several hundred protesters marching in the city streets Thursday. The witness, speaking on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal, said police in the area opened fire. The witness saw at least one protester injured.

Source

 

[waltky]

Saudi Arabia meets protests with prepared police presence...

Day of Rage in Saudi Arabia: How much change can the Gulf expect?
March 11, 2011 - Regime change may not come swiftly to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, where protesters have called for a 'Day of Rage' today, but a revolution of a different sort is taking place.

From Saudi Arabia’s “Day of Rage” today to an explosion of free speech in Oman, Arab unrest is making ever-larger waves in the oil-rich Gulf region. Most of the protesters in these Gulf nations are seeking reform, not the overthrow of the royal ruling families. But citizens’ willingness to express their discontent – even after their leaders have made unprecedented concessions – signals what may be the beginning of the end for the monarchies’ strategy of buying compliance with generous social welfare benefits.

“We’re told they’re stable regimes that manage to buy off protests,” says Toby Jones, a Middle East historian at Rutgers University in New Jersey. “But they’re characterized by deep disillusionment, and disappointment, about the nature of the political system.... There was always a simmering level of frustration, and that’s going to be there five years from now, 10 years from now, just like it has been.”

Regime change may not come swiftly to the Gulf, as it did to Tunisia and Egypt, but the newfound boldness to press for more rights is a revolution in its own right in countries where people have long been subdued by fear.

A free-speech revolution

See also:

Police Flood Saudi Capital to Prevent Protests
Friday, March 11, 2011 - Hundreds of police deployed in the Saudi capital Friday and prevented protests calling for democratic reforms inspired by the wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world.

Police blocked roads and set up random checkpoints in Riyadh, searching residents and vehicles around a central mosque as large numbers of people gathered for Friday prayers. Witnesses said groups of policemen manned street corners and intersections and a helicopter flew over the city. By midday, no protesters had showed up in the capital and the police presence significantly decreased.

On Thursday, rare violence broke out at another protest in the country's east when Saudi police opened fire to disperse demonstrators in the city of Qatif, where minority Shiites live. At least three protesters and one police officer were wounded. Although protests have so far been confined to small rallies in the east, activists have been emboldened by other uprisings in the region that have toppled longtime rulers of Tunisia and Egypt. The Saudi activists have set up online groups calling for protests in Riyadh on Friday.

Any violence at Friday's planned protests could reverberate through the world's markets because of the importance of Saudi oil exports. Security officials on Friday said security measures around state-run oil giant Saudi Aramco and its oil facilities in the east were beefed up protectively, in case of any violence. The company is based in Dhahran district on the kingdom's eastern coast.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said the new measures were "considered normal under the current circumstances," referring to the online call for protests in the area.

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