The rise in the stock market is generally attributed to QE II. The things that can derail it are: The rise in bond yields based on the inflation estimates of bond funds and ratings agencies. This factor is already present. Disinvestment by Sovereign Wealth Funds. This factor is also present already just not very important yet. An end to QEII. Depending on how QEII is defined it is scheduled for closure June (new cash) to September (based on reinvestment of portfolio returns). So the stock market will crash this year the questions are when and how far will it decline? But more importantly with real estate still crashing, bonds crashing and stocks ready to crash will precious metals become a bubble with the DJIA selling for less than one oz. AU?