McCain's bounce already over, Obama regains lead

Discussion in 'Congress' started by Ravi, Sep 8, 2008.

  1. Ravi
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    Ravi Diamond Member

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  2. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Looks pretty close to me.

    Washington Post-ABC News (washingtonpost.com)

    3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote?
    NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS Other Neither Would not No Obama McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
    9/7/08 47 46 1 1 1 4
    8/22/08 49 43 * 3 2 3
    7/13/08 50 42 1 3 1 2
    6/15/08 49 45 1 3 1 3
    5/11/08 51 44 * 2 1 1
    4/13/08 49 44 * 3 3 2
    3/2/08 53 40 * 2 1 3
    2/1/08 47 48 1 1 1 2
    1/19/07 47 45 * 3 1 4
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2008
  3. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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  4. Ravi
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    Ravi Diamond Member

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    doh!

    3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote?
    NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS

    Obama 47
    McCain 46
     
  5. Skull Pilot
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    Skull Pilot Platinum Member

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    if a poll is within the margin of error, you cannot say either candidate has the lead. the best you can do is say it is a statistical dead heat.

    you all should know that.

    and have you noticed that there are polls of registered voters and likely voters. they are not the same thing.

    http://iusbvision.wordpress.com/2008/09/07/usa-today-poll-among-likely-voters-mccain-leads-obama-by-10-this-changes-everything/

    you can't compare the 2 polls. apples and oranges and all that.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2008
  6. Ravi
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    Ravi Diamond Member

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    That's true, but yesterday McSame had a ten point lead.
     
  7. CrimsonWhite
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    CrimsonWhite *****istrator Emeritus Supporting Member

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  8. CrimsonWhite
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    CrimsonWhite *****istrator Emeritus Supporting Member

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    In one poll. Not the one you posted, but another. The spread is what matters.
     
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  9. Skull Pilot
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    Skull Pilot Platinum Member

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    you're comparing a poll of registered voters to a poll of likely voters. again not the same thing.
     
  10. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    Doh!

    This is what matters, likely voters. People who aren't going to vote are useless in polling data.

    Which is why on RCP, they show the same poll in McCain's favor by +2.
     

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