Math Says It's Impossible For Obama to Win

[Freemason9]

The polls are skewed toward democrats because obama won the last election. Whatever the raw data is, has the percentage attributed to obama according to what percentage he won that state last time. Liberals with few exceptions are in control of the media. We know only what they tell us.

Nope, that is absolutely wrong. I'm not wasting my time telling you why. It won't change the way you vote, will it?

 

[Freemason9]

Yep and they over adjust because of that or some other reason. Polls say there are more republican's now than democrats. The first time in a long time. Polls say there are more conservatives than liberals. Nothing new there though. That's always been the case. Do some research, for God's sake!

link(s) please

Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.



Pry won't do you any good since it's accurate over a long period. And that accurateness is even skewed against pubs

You DO understand that Rasmussen has some serious deficiencies in their sampling methodology, right? There is a reason why it is the go-to "report" for the Drudge Sludge.

EDIT: In other words--as time passes, Rasmussen will increasingly trend toward Republicans because telephone landline households are increasingly rare and aging.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Yep and they over adjust because of that or some other reason. Polls say there are more republican's now than democrats. The first time in a long time. Polls say there are more conservatives than liberals. Nothing new there though. That's always been the case. Do some research, for God's sake!

link(s) please

Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.



Pry won't do you any good since it's accurate over a long period. And that accurateness is even skewed against pubs

ahhh Rassmussen - Gallup and Pew disagree with those numbers put it at 37% Dem 25% Republican.

Rass's track record hasn't been so good of late...
Rass fostered a lot of the same kinda talk eight years ago. How'd that work out?

But maybe he's straightened himself out, I guess we will see.

 

[nodoginnafight]

link(s) please

Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.



Pry won't do you any good since it's accurate over a long period. And that accurateness is even skewed against pubs

You DO understand that Rasmussen has some serious deficiencies in their sampling methodology, right? There is a reason why it is the go-to "report" for the Drudge Sludge.

EDIT: In other words--as time passes, Rasmussen will increasingly trend toward Republicans because telephone landline households are increasingly rare and aging.

My personal opinion is that it goes beyond the cell phone question. You don't overestimate a Republican's support in a senate race by 40 points on cell phones alone.

At this time 8 years ago he had the race a dead heat. One week later he finally corrected and showed Obama up by 5 points. A five point swing in one week?

Too bad he didn't correct his abysmal state polls - they came through with a 4 point republican bias across the board. In 2010 he fared even worse on the Republican bias. And despite those huge miscalculations - the far right will ONLY listen to Rassmussen because he's the only one who will tell them what they want to hear. So his business plan is to corner the far-right bias market - and he has buyers.

We'll see soon enough.

 

[NLT]

With many current polls oversampling dems by 10 percent when the likely voters will most like be even or +1 or2 for pubs, Obama is still only up by 3 percent on average. The undecideds always break big time against the Incumbent. This alone will most likely give Romney a 4 to 5 percent extra vote on election day. That doesn't even include the adjustment for accurate voter turnout. At this rate Obama is going to get crushed. It looks like Romney is going to get about 51-53 percent of the vote. This is before the debates where Obama will be awful at best if he does as well as his other interviews.

Wow, that's a nutty way to look at this. Democrats are "oversampled" because there are more folks affiliating with Democrats with Republicans. This has been verified by polls using a broad spectrum of sampling. Do you understand how statistical analyses work?

BTW, the polls that skew toward Romney have one thing in common--they use robo-calls, and they do not call cell telephones. They only contact households that still have landlines, which tend to be older, white, and rural. Those polls effectively ignore about 35% of the voting population.
Do some research, for God's sake.

What age and ethnic group turns out the most voters on election day...the white over 60 kiddos.

 

[hazlnut]

With many current polls oversampling dems by 10 percent when the likely voters will most like be even or +1 or2 for pubs, Obama is still only up by 3 percent on average. The undecideds always break big time against the Incumbent. This alone will most likely give Romney a 4 to 5 percent extra vote on election day. That doesn't even include the adjustment for accurate voter turnout. At this rate Obama is going to get crushed. It looks like Romney is going to get about 51-53 percent of the vote. This is before the debates where Obama will be awful at best if he does as well as his other interviews.

"Oversampling" is a big word for Limbaugh/Fox fans.

 

[Chris]

Romney couldn't sell pussy on a troop ship.

 

[chikenwing]

I almost hope Romney dosn't win ,the shrillness will be heard in space.

That said,I don't know who will win,but history shows the incumbent should be farther ahead at this point.

Carter was,then wasn't.

 

[Chris]

I almost hope Romney dosn't win ,the shrillness will be heard in space.

That said,I don't know who will win,but history shows the incumbent should be farther ahead at this point.

Carter was,then wasn't.

Obama is Reagan, not Carter.

 

[Richard-H]

Liberals and independants may not turn out just to vote for Obama, but given this Congress' record, they will turn out to vote Congress out.

Romney is gonna turn voters against the Repubs in Congress, while the Repubs in Congress turn voters against Romney.

This is gonna be a landslide like none before!

 

[skookerasbil]

The k00ks discount this out of hand...............


Election model with 100% success rate for past 30 years predicts Romney victory | The Raw Story


Not me........I'll go with the guys who are 9 out of 9 since 1980........and have called correctly between 45 to 48 states every single election. They have a solid electoral blowout for Romney........but its really simple when it comes right down to it. An incumbent under 50% in a shit economy goes down every time.


No worries here nor should my conservative pals in here be fretting for a single second over these bogus polls.


Anyway.....the Bickers model has Romney at 320 to 211 electorally...........not even close. Bixkers said recently that even if Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania ( dead even right now) end up in the Obama column, he is still well short.

 

[AVG-JOE]

With many current polls oversampling dems by 10 percent when the likely voters will most like be even or +1 or2 for pubs, Obama is still only up by 3 percent on average.
The undecideds always break big time against the Incumbent. This alone will most likely give Romney a 4 to 5 percent extra vote on election day. That doesn't even include the adjustment for accurate voter turnout. At this rate Obama is going to get crushed. It looks like Romney is going to get about 51-53 percent of the vote. This is before the debates where Obama will be awful at best if he does as well as his other interviews.

​

Ass-U-Me much?

 

[Avatar4321]

So this is just your theory..

You should keep things like this to yourself, it makes you look foolish.

It's better to look like a fool and say nothing, than to speak and remove all doubt. You should take the advice yourself

 

[geauxtohell]

With many current polls oversampling dems by 10 percent when the likely voters will most like be even or +1 or2 for pubs, Obama is still only up by 3 percent on average. The undecideds always break big time against the Incumbent. This alone will most likely give Romney a 4 to 5 percent extra vote on election day. That doesn't even include the adjustment for accurate voter turnout. At this rate Obama is going to get crushed. It looks like Romney is going to get about 51-53 percent of the vote. This is before the debates where Obama will be awful at best if he does as well as his other interviews.

Denial is a stage of grief.

 

[Avatar4321]

So this is just your theory..

You should keep things like this to yourself, it makes you look foolish.

Keep thinking otherwise ... and on election day when I'm right? What will you say then?

Why wait for election night? I'm saying you're just laying the groundwork for "proving" Obama stole the election.

Well, if he steals the election, he's going to do a bad job. Because he's going to lose.

 

[Avatar4321]

With many current polls oversampling dems by 10 percent when the likely voters will most like be even or +1 or2 for pubs, Obama is still only up by 3 percent on average. The undecideds always break big time against the Incumbent. This alone will most likely give Romney a 4 to 5 percent extra vote on election day. That doesn't even include the adjustment for accurate voter turnout. At this rate Obama is going to get crushed. It looks like Romney is going to get about 51-53 percent of the vote. This is before the debates where Obama will be awful at best if he does as well as his other interviews.

Denial is a stage of grief.

So it's been four years, when are you guys getting out of it?

 

[Dick Tuck]

No, VOTE! But let us just see if Sheldon Adelson : can buy a president.

He is the first person to spend $70 million to sway a presidential election, and he plans to spend more — perhaps as much as $100 million — by Election Day.

Read more: Sheldon Adelson: Inside the mind of the mega-donor - Mike Allen - POLITICO.com

My old Boss has already raised over $50MM to defeat Obama

It's always good to see right wingers tossing their money down a rat hole.

 

[skookerasbil]

No, VOTE! But let us just see if Sheldon Adelson : can buy a president.

He is the first person to spend $70 million to sway a presidential election, and he plans to spend more — perhaps as much as $100 million — by Election Day.

Read more: Sheldon Adelson: Inside the mind of the mega-donor - Mike Allen - POLITICO.com

My old Boss has already raised over $50MM to defeat Obama

It's always good to see right wingers tossing their money down a rat hole.

 

[AceRothstein]

The k00ks discount this out of hand...............


Election model with 100% success rate for past 30 years predicts Romney victory | The Raw Story


Not me........I'll go with the guys who are 9 out of 9 since 1980........and have called correctly between 45 to 48 states every single election. They have a solid electoral blowout for Romney........but its really simple when it comes right down to it. An incumbent under 50% in a shit economy goes down every time.


No worries here nor should my conservative pals in here be fretting for a single second over these bogus polls.


Anyway.....the Bickers model has Romney at 320 to 211 electorally...........not even close. Bixkers said recently that even if Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania ( dead even right now) end up in the Obama column, he is still well short.

It has been posted before that this model hasn't actually predicted anything, it was derived in 2008 supposedly. How do we know they didn't tweak the data until it fit the narrative they wish to give? I'll be interested to see their September update.

Also, Romney isn't winning Minnesota or Pennsylvania.

 

[candycorn]

So this is just your theory..

You should keep things like this to yourself, it makes you look foolish.

Keep thinking otherwise ... and on election day when I'm right? What will you say then?

I am man, I can admit if I am right..

What are you gonna do when you are wrong? You gonna tell us all about how you didn't like Mitt to begin with?

I'd tell him to wake up...obviously he's dreaming if the words "Romney" and "President" are mentioned in the same sentence.