Market Overheated?

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by Manonthestreet, Nov 9, 2019.

  1. CWayne
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    CWayne VIP Member

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    I'm up 17% for the year which isn't too terrible. I've been thinking of switching to a more risk-oriented profile, but knowing my luck, I'll do it just as the market trends down or tanks.
     
  2. BuckToothMoron
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    BuckToothMoron Gold Member

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    It’s impossible to give specific suggestions without knowing your age and how you are allocated now. With that said- take a look at what the smart money is doing. To that end- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is holding over $120 Billion in cash while the Buffett Indicator, market cap over GDP, Is in the danger zone, meaning the market is waaaaay over valued.

    9F0A1FE6-9E8B-4CFD-9441-CF4E8F6BCD9B.png
     
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  3. MarathonMike
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    MarathonMike Platinum Member

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    If you are overbalanced already it would seem wise to not keep buying into a very expensive market.
     
  4. Natural Citizen
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    Natural Citizen Platinum Member

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    There are 17 trillion dollars in bonds with negative interest rates. It's the biggest bond bubble in history.

    It's going to burst.
     
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  5. Manonthestreet
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    Manonthestreet Platinum Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Went to fixed interest rate fund for all new money couple days after I started this thread.
     
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  6. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    me, I'm looking at strike price and premium on covered options for high dividend underlying issues and I do not see a down side on my watch list. A really strange and boring market.
     
  7. Manonthestreet
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    Manonthestreet Platinum Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    An orderly consolidation would be nice, some base building. Flash crashes of omg trade war haven't shaken out the dead wood. About to go thru another floor, barely maintaining my ratio of fixed assets despite my adjustment.
    Hoping to make it to dividend season without having to adjust balances in the various funds.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2019
  8. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Yeah rebalancing is a pain but it does work.
     
  9. Toddsterpatriot
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    Toddsterpatriot Diamond Member

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    Don't buy any foreign bonds with negative rates.
     
  10. The Banker
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    The Banker Silver Member

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    It is hard to say as market timing is very difficult, especially with this trade war in the background.

    I think we have some more upside then the big crash will hit approximately end of 2020, but who knows for sure. Follow the economic data, right now the consumer is propping up the economy, and unemployment is at extreme lows. That just can't last forever. I think that company earnings will slow in 2020, which could then cause a chain reaction of a hiring slowdown and a drop in consumer spending, leading to the recession.

    It depends how aggressive you are, but I wouldn't be buying at these levels at all unless you are looking for shorter term swings. Mainly I am a buy the pullback on great stocks type trader. If ROKU can dump out again I'm in.

    I would love a parabolic bubble type movement, like end of 2017, but I am looking to slowly take profits now and try my hand at the big short. Then try to buy in at a lower level, using prior tops as support. All of which is much easier said than done. SPY to the 158 level on a recession would make me very happy.

    Or you could buy solid dividend stocks on pullbacks as they tend to hold their price much better during recessions/corrections. A certain investor on here incorporates this type of strategy.

    If we get a trade deal (which I doubt we will) then who knows what will happen.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2019

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