Market Going Up Because of the Government

[Zander]

If you are bullish, buy stocks!!

Personally, I don't try to predict the daily gyrations of the stock market, I look at the long term trend. Right now the long term trend is down. This is a classic bear market rally that is running out of steam. I will be content to sit on the sidelines in short term treasuries.

I've been selling stocks as they hit my price targets because I agree that it is probably a bear market rally.

The problem is that everyone I know thinks its a bear market rally. Usually, when everyone I know agrees on something, it turns out to be false.

I would normally agree, but Investorintelligence.com has bullish sentiment over 90%. The last time bullish sentiment was this "frothy" was last year, just before it crashed......

 

[Zander]

Ain't that about a Bitch... It's up 150ish...

Yo, Zander!...



peace...

If you are bullish, buy stocks!!

Personally, I don't try to predict the daily gyrations of the stock market, I look at the long term trend. Right now the long term trend is down. This is a classic bear market rally that is running out of steam. I will be content to sit on the sidelines in short term treasuries.

I haven't really seen you provide a comprehensive analysis on why you think we're looking at deflation.

Could you? Because I'm really interested in hearing why you think so.

Forget about technicals, I'd like to see you use fundamentals in your assessment.

I will post something later tonight...It's DINNER TIME!!!

 

[Zander]

If you are bullish, buy stocks!!

Personally, I don't try to predict the daily gyrations of the stock market, I look at the long term trend. Right now the long term trend is down. This is a classic bear market rally that is running out of steam. I will be content to sit on the sidelines in short term treasuries.

I haven't really seen you provide a comprehensive analysis on why you think we're looking at deflation.

Could you? Because I'm really interested in hearing why you think so.

Forget about technicals, I'd like to see you use fundamentals in your assessment.

I will post something later tonight...It's DINNER TIME!!!

Read this
The Case for Deflation ~ Washington's Blog
and this
Pomp & Surkanstance: the case for deflation - why stimulus spending won't help
Then we can discus.....

 

[Toro]

If you are bullish, buy stocks!!

Personally, I don't try to predict the daily gyrations of the stock market, I look at the long term trend. Right now the long term trend is down. This is a classic bear market rally that is running out of steam. I will be content to sit on the sidelines in short term treasuries.

I've been selling stocks as they hit my price targets because I agree that it is probably a bear market rally.

The problem is that everyone I know thinks its a bear market rally. Usually, when everyone I know agrees on something, it turns out to be false.

I would normally agree, but Investorintelligence.com has bullish sentiment over 90%. The last time bullish sentiment was this "frothy" was last year, just before it crashed......

Can you link that? I track the II poll and I haven't seen that. A few weeks ago, it was in the mid-50s.

Put/Call ratio was over 90% during the last three days of last week. The market usually goes up when that happens. Today, it did.

This is from RealMoney a few days ago.

Helene Meisler
Sentiment
9/24/2009 8:22 AM EDT
Keeping in mind that the 'voting' for AAII's weekly survey closes on Tuesday, I find it fascinating that this week's report chimes in at only 39% bulls and 44% bears.

Just a few short weeks ago we had 51% bulls.

Position: Is this a wall of worry?

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_search/dps/cc/20090924/columnistconversation1.html#entryId10602788

So it appears that sentiment is still pretty bearish.

 

[mal]

Let me guess, the government is also taking the credit for the sun coming up this morning, since it went down last night.

Well, it did come up... How do you Explain that!

If Glorious Leader didn't Will it, like the Perfection he Created in Chicago as a Community and Political Leader, before Leaving the Utopia to Feed on itself, then who did?



peace...

 

[midcan5]

That piece was actually cautionary as it is unclear about next steps. Keynesian policy works, FDR, and even Reagan followed that path. What I find interesting is the negative tone of so many on the right who seem to think the economy is run by magic and the fed only screws up in spite of contrary evidence. Jobs are certainly a concern as corporations compete in a global market where Americans are the consumers but not the producers.


The GD remains the most interesting time for study.

The Great Depression, to 1935
Timeline of the Great Depression

 

[Oddball]

If it's anyone who thinks the economy runs by magic, it's Keynesean David Copperfield wannabes.

And half-baked nutjob economic meddling during the depression is instructive, but not in the ways you thought it is: Great Myths of the Great Depression [Mackinac Center]

 

[Paulie]

That piece was actually cautionary as it is unclear about next steps. Keynesian policy works, FDR, and even Reagan followed that path. What I find interesting is the negative tone of so many on the right who seem to think the economy is run by magic and the fed only screws up in spite of contrary evidence. Jobs are certainly a concern as corporations compete in a global market where Americans are the consumers but not the producers.


The GD remains the most interesting time for study.

The Great Depression, to 1935
Timeline of the Great Depression

When you say '...the fed only screws up..." are you talking about the Federal Reserve, or just the gov. in general?

Because the Federal Reserve's primary goal is to keep prices stable through monetary policy. How's that worked out for them so far in their almost 100 years of existence?

 

[Oddball]

Because the Federal Reserve's primary goal is to keep prices stable through monetary policy. How's that worked out for them so far in their almost 100 years of existence?

 

[Paulie]

I haven't really seen you provide a comprehensive analysis on why you think we're looking at deflation.

Could you? Because I'm really interested in hearing why you think so.

Forget about technicals, I'd like to see you use fundamentals in your assessment.

I will post something later tonight...It's DINNER TIME!!!

Read this
The Case for Deflation ~ Washington's Blog
and this
Pomp & Surkanstance: the case for deflation - why stimulus spending won't help
Then we can discus.....

If your only reason for thinking this is based on some blogger or news article, then this conversation is already over.

If you have some economic knowledge with which you'd like to use in your analysis, then let's hear it. I'm all ears.

All I'm asking you to do is pretend you're an economist and give a personal analysis. That's what I do. I take my knowledge, and I analyze. I don't let a single other person anywhere influence my opinion when it comes to that. Just what I know based on monetary policy moves, fiscal policy moves, private sector business fundamentals, etc.

I use chart analysis a little too when I trade, but I'm asking you to look past technicals and use the fundamentals that you see with your own eyes.

 

[Maple]

Not sure how much of this I believe of this.

Robert Reich's Blog: Why the Dow is Hitting 10,000 Even When Consumers Can't Buy And Business Cries "Socialism"

It just signals that the banks are no longer on a cliff, get ready for the double dip recession coming soon. When consumers are not spending because they have no money because they have no jobs, this will eventually send the market south again.

 

[Toro]

The market took an old fashioned beating today.

It is clear the market has rolled over in the near-term. The question is whether this is the beginning of a topping process if it is a pull back in the uptrend.

My guess is that it is a pull back in the uptrend, and that next year we will see the intermediate top in the market. However, one can never rule out any scenario!

 

[Annie]

I've admitted my economic ignorance many a time. What I know, seems real estate hasn't bottomed out, in fact seems to be worsening. Saturn is toast, GM not far behind. The only job gains are on the federal government column, which doesn't bode well. Unemployment in all other sectors, UP, before Saturn news.

 

[Zander]

After a 2% drop in all the indexes today, tomorrow's jobs report could be the impetus for even more severe declines. Interestingly, stocks, bonds, and commodities all dropped - diversification amongst asset classes didn't do squat. I remain bullish on the dollar and bearish on everything else.

 

[Toro]

I would say two things.

First, the market was hammered before the last jobs report, then went higher.

Second, stocks sold off hard just before quarter two earnings were reported, and totally screamed higher when companies started reporting after looking like they were about to break down.

We may be topping out but we are entering the strongest time of year, lots of money managers are underperforming, there is a boatload of cash on the sidelines, and there are eerie parallels to prior sell-offs.

 

[Zander]

We'll see. No jobs, no earnings, not much to be bullish about. Once sentiment turns negative...........




















LOOK OUT BELOW!!!!

 

[Toro]

Earnings are probably going to come in better than expected.

 

[Zander]

Earnings are probably going to come in better than expected.

Permabull much??

 

[Paulie]

Zander I still haven't seen you post your own fundamental analysis on why you see deflation in the future.

No links to someone else's opinion, I'm interested in seeing how you came to your conclusion if you in fact utilized more than just the opinions of others.

 

[Zander]

Zander I still haven't seen you post your own fundamental analysis on why you see deflation in the future.

No links to someone else's opinion, I'm interested in seeing how you came to your conclusion if you in fact utilized more than just the opinions of others.

Sorry to disappoint you, but I do not use fundamental analysis. I prefer technical analysis. I use the Elliot Wave theory. We are just beginning a wave 3 downturn. It is a remarkably accurate system. The timing is sometimes early, but the end results speak for themselves.

In my experience, fundamental analysis is wrong so often that it is shocking. For instance, at the top of the market last July most "fundamental analysts" were calling for a continuation of the bull market citing all sorts of positive fundamentals. I am sure a few were bearish, bu I don't know of any that were calling for the massive downturn that took place last Sept-March. Yet almost every Elliot wave theorist out there had predicted the downturn. Most were early (Robert Prechter had his clients out and in short term treasuries a full six months earlier - that paid off rather handsomely as the flight to quality that ensued drove up the prices of treasuries) , but I'd rather be early than late when it comes to downturns. Prechter had his clients get back into equities in early March, just before the run up. A few weeks ago he recommended going back to short term t-bills and cash. Right now the market is in the midst of a "grand supercycle" in the downard direction. I am not a market trader, I go with the long term trend. I will remain in cash and t-bills until the markets technical signals change. Best of luck to you in whatever you do.