market down on retail numbers

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by wimpy77, May 13, 2009.

  1. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    retail was down 0.2%. this is the second straight month after march showed 1.3% decline. looks like the bears are back.
     
  2. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    I disagree. We've gained nearly 2000 points in the past two months. That's A LOT. I wouldn't doubt there would be some kind of market correction after that.
     
  3. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    first the first time in a few weeks i watched cnbc they had doug kass. he thinks we could see a vicious correction. i have read today people think we could see a 15 to 20% pullback but that we shouldn't retest lows of march. it was coming no doubt.
     
  4. Iriemon
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    Iriemon VIP Member

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    As with the employment numbers, any down is bad, but being down only .2% is a lot better than being down 1.3%.

    Hopefully a sign the this is at least the end of the beginning, eh?
     
  5. Iriemon
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    Iriemon VIP Member

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    Lots of people think lots of different things all the time. I think we could see a 20 to 25% increase. So what?

    Who is Doug Kass, this guy?

    It will be hard to do it again and beat last year's surprises, but without further ado, here is my Surprise List for 2008.

    Doug Kass' Predictions for 2008:

    1. The Housing Depression of 2007 morphs into the Retail Spending Depression of 2008. Stubbornly high inflation coupled with a deceleration in the rate of job growth, which turns into job losses by midyear, and an absence of innovation (a creativity void in consumer electronic products and apparel), leads to an unprecedented and abrupt drop in personal consumption expenditures.

    Wrong. No high inflation.

    2. Under pressure from slowing consumer spending, disappointing capital spending and higher commodities, corporate profits drop 10% in 2008. Importantly, the pattern of economic activity grows increasingly inconsistent and lumpy, providing a difficult backdrop for corporate managers and investment managers to navigate.

    Wrong. Corporate profits fell a lot more than 10%. The economic pattern wasn't lumpy; it took a nosedive.

    3. The S&P 500 Index falls by 5%-10% in 2008, and 2007's laggards and leaders continue to be the same laggards and leaders in the coming year.

    Wrong. The S&P fell by far more than that.

    4. With a continuation of the credit and liquidity crises and an increased recognition that financial retrenchment will take years (not months), volatility pushes even higher. Daily moves of 1%-2% become more commonplace, serving to further alienate the individual investor.

    Don't know.

    5. The Federal Reserve embarks upon a series of moves to ease monetary policy in 2008. Nearly every meeting is accompanied by a 25-basis-point decrease in the federal funds rate even despite continued inflationary pressures.

    Wrong. The Fed cut rates to almost 0 almost immediately. There have been little in the way of inflationary pressure.

    6. Growth in the Western European economies deteriorates throughout the year, and the markets in England and France drop at twice the rate of the U.S. market.

    Don't know.

    7. The Chinese juggernaut continues apace and, despite continued protestations of a market bubble, the Chinese market doubles again in 2008.

    Completely wrong. Chinese market fell 40-50% and was continuing to tank in January.

    8. The Japanese market puts on a surprising resurgence as the world's investors respond to compressed valuations (vis-à-vis peer regions), reasonable multiples (absolutely and against Japanese bond yields), accelerated M&A activity, share buybacks and relative strong corporate profit growth.

    Completely wrong. "The Japanese Nikkei suffered its worst year ever in 2008, losing 42% — the worst performance in its 58 year history. "
    Japan: worst stock market drop in history | China and Asia Stock Alert

    9. The administration's proposal to revive the housing market falls on its face (as the housing bust accelerates), and President Bush enlists a well-placed Democrat and former cabinet member to become the U.S. housing czar, who has the primary charge to propose and administer a massive Marshall Plan for housing.

    Didn't happen.

    Several high-profile housing-related bankruptcies occur in 2008, including Countrywide Financial (CFC) , Beazer Homes (BZH) , Hovnanian (HOV) , Standard Pacific (SPF) , WCI Communities (WCI) and Radian Group (RDN) .

    He got Countrywide right, I don't know about the others, he missed several majors like Bear Stearns and Merryll.

    10. Financial stocks fail to recover. No financial company is immune to the eroding market conditions, the spike in market volatility, the uneven direction in commodities and currency prices. Even the leader of the pack, Goldman Sachs (GS) , makes several bad bets in the derivative, currency and commodity markets, and its shares begin to underperform its peers as profit forecasts move lower.

    The didn't fail to recover, they tanked.

    Given his record, I'm not hedging my bets on Mr. Kass' predictions.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2009
  6. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    We're still in recession. The market has rallied 30%+ in two months. We're due for a pullback.
     
  7. Iriemon
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    Iriemon VIP Member

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    He sure had some stinkos for 2008. So I guess we'll just have to wait and see if he's wrong or right this time.
     
  8. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    so did peter schiff. but tomorrow the tone will be set by the unemployment number. if it shows stablization i think we might see the market up tomorrow if it goes up more than expected down we go.
     
  9. Terral
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    Terral Terral Corp CEO

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    Hi Wimpy:

    Anyone thinking the U.S. Economy is getting better is looking through a pair of Loyal Bushie/Obama rose-colored glasses and has gulped down too much of their propaganda-flavored Kool-aid. Here are the sad facts that many of you simply wish to discount or ignore completely:

    1. The USA has lost more than an average of a half million JOBS every month this year (2 million jobs gone in first quarter alone = NYTimes.com story).

    2. Home foreclosures are escalating ‘higher’ (USA Today story = 341,180 properties in March alone) which is flooding the housing markets with an increasing number of distressed properties; which lowers the value of the mortgaged-backed security portfolios of all the banks.

    3. Huge GM losses push automaker towards bankruptcy (WSWS.org story). The big automakers are going down, which means the service sector support companies will also be laying off more and more workers; which means this unemployment situation is going to escalate to new highs. "Chrysler Moves To Eliminate 789 of 3,200 Dealers" (story). Do "The Economy Is IMPLODING" Math . . .

    4. Bankruptcy filings are soaring (HousingWire.com) all around the nation (up 85 percent in the Tucson area = story), which is eroding away the American Consumer Base and lowers ‘demand’ for all goods and services.

    5. The Commercial Real Estate Bubble is Set to Burst! SeekingAlpha.com Story.

    6. All of these things lead to ‘demand destruction’ for the Global Economy as a whole (GlobalEconomicCrisis.com story), as the banking systems in the USA and UK are “effectively insolvent.”

    7. The US Govt has created “the biggest financial bubble in history” that “when it explodes . . . it will signal the END of the boom/bust cycle that has characterized economic activity throughout the developed world.” Gerald Celente Trends Alert story (here).

    All of the real U.S./Global Economic Evidence says the American Economic System is heading for a massive collapse, as the local markets are imploding a little more with every passing day.

    8. The U.S. stock markets are losing all credibility, because day traders are ignoring all of the bad news that should be sending stock prices DOWN from January of this year. The recent stock market rally has been more about investors getting out of U.S. dollars (MoneyNews.com story), than any signs of strength in the U.S. markets themselves; as the deflationary real estate market (HousingPredictor.com story) is no longer a viable option for any sane investment.

    The fact that we have day traders sending the price of oil ‘UP,’ over mere speculation that things are getting better, is a testament to the STUPIDITY of people without one clue. So gas prices are going up, when more and more people are filing for bankruptcy and losing their homes to foreclosure ‘and’ we still see record Outsourcing of JOBS ‘and’ we still have between 20 and 30 MILLION Illegal Alien Foreign Nationals running around ‘displacing’ U.S. workers from JOBS; which does not even begin to address the 1.5 MILLION Foreign National Guest Workers shipped into the USA EVERY YEAR to displace even more U.S. Workers from JOBS.

    The stock market must eventually reflect the ‘reality’ of what is really going on, which means take your profits now (before the bailout bubble bursts); OR watch them evaporate into thin air . . .

    Peter Schiff Was Right

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsPgvNd066A"]Peter Schiff May 8, 2009[/ame]

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIZgfj7W_rE&feature=related"]Peter Schiff May 9, 2009[/ame]

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azhvbJKOueU&feature=channel"]We Are In A Deflationary Depression[/ame]

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc6DGevJels&feature=related"]Jim Rogers Economic Meltdown Part 1[/ame]

    Jim Rogers Economic Meltdown Part 2

    GL,

    Terral
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2009
  10. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    PART of the reason that the market is up is BECAUSE unemployment is ALSO up.

    One of the quickest ways to make a company's books look healthier is to jettison the help.

    In the long run that may be dumb, but the market has a six month prespective.
     

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