Manufacturing Jobs Jumped by 54,000 in November! How About Those Tariffs?!

[Harpy Eagle]

IMHO It's neither a bump nor a trend it's a reflection of uncertainty with respect to the prospects of how long the peak of this cycle can continue to be extended, it's a roll off of inventory (normal response to recession worries), that coupled with the effects off Donny's extended tit-for-tat "trade war" on manufacturing exports.

The TREND however (as the BLS data shows) is that manufacturing EMPLOYMENT is rising (over the last 9 years) which contradicts the claim made by Nazi Joe.[/QUOTE]

It also contradicts the claim that Trump is responsible for it

 

[NightFox]

IMHO It's neither a bump nor a trend it's a reflection of uncertainty with respect to the prospects of how long the peak of this cycle can continue to be extended, it's a roll off of inventory (normal response to recession worries), that coupled with the effects off Donny's extended tit-for-tat "trade war" on manufacturing exports.

The TREND however (as the BLS data shows) is that manufacturing EMPLOYMENT is rising (over the last 9 years) which contradicts the claim made by Nazi Joe.

It also contradicts the claim that Trump is responsible for it

Uh-huh,

 

[Correll]

1. A real "data guy" would know that it takes time to collect hard data. You hear stories first.


2. Yes, really. What do you think you just showed there?

1. Stories do not help and most of the time bias against the real facts. Stores are individual and do not apply to the whole. I run up against this every day at work, "But Bob down the street said...".

2. That manufacturing jobs have been growing since 2011. It is not a new thing that you Trump caused to happen.

1. Link to data to support your claim that personal observations mostly are wrong. (see what I did there?)

2. But the recovery is old. Normally one would expect that inventories are full, contracts are drying up, companies have reached limits of expansion plans and are holding, ect. That not happening, is "new".

1. Yes, I see what you did. You tried to cover up your lack of understanding of analytics by being cute...and you failed.

2. It might be happening, output is down for the year and hiring has basically leveled off. Too early to determine if it is a bump or a trend.

1. Nope. I used being "cute" to point out that you are doing what you said you don't do, and standing by your conclusion, despite it being based on "Stories" you have heard. I'm fine, btw, with you having conclusions based on personal observation. So, I'm not the one playing with a double standard.


2. Might be. When was the last time we saw such encouraging numbers for the working poor and middle class in America?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

1. Nope. I used being "cute" to point out that you are doing what you said you don't do, and standing by your conclusion, despite it being based on "Stories" you have heard. I'm fine, btw, with you having conclusions based on personal observation. So, I'm not the one playing with a double standard.


2. Might be. When was the last time we saw such encouraging numbers for the working poor and middle class in America?

1. My conclusions are based upon facts and data. not stories. Why do you need to make things up about me? You remind me of my SIL, over the 4th of July weekend I was talking about the late planting and how that would affect the farmers and she was like "well our neighbor has had his corn in the ground for a month"...like that one person somehow made all the difference as opposed to the million other farmers my data is collected from.

2. Right before the last recession. It is the way it always happens.

 

[Correll]

1. Nope. I used being "cute" to point out that you are doing what you said you don't do, and standing by your conclusion, despite it being based on "Stories" you have heard. I'm fine, btw, with you having conclusions based on personal observation. So, I'm not the one playing with a double standard.


2. Might be. When was the last time we saw such encouraging numbers for the working poor and middle class in America?

1. My conclusions are based upon facts and data. not stories. Why do you need to make things up about me? You remind me of my SIL, over the 4th of July weekend I was talking about the late planting and how that would affect the farmers and she was like "well our neighbor has had his corn in the ground for a month"...like that one person somehow made all the difference as opposed to the million other farmers my data is collected from.

2. Right before the last recession. It is the way it always happens.

1. The rise in lower end wages is a hard number, that we have not seen like this, for a very long time.

2. No, we did not. The underlying trend has been the disconnect between rises in productivity and rises in wages, and the economic cycle has not touched it. Until now.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

1. Nope. I used being "cute" to point out that you are doing what you said you don't do, and standing by your conclusion, despite it being based on "Stories" you have heard. I'm fine, btw, with you having conclusions based on personal observation. So, I'm not the one playing with a double standard.


2. Might be. When was the last time we saw such encouraging numbers for the working poor and middle class in America?

1. My conclusions are based upon facts and data. not stories. Why do you need to make things up about me? You remind me of my SIL, over the 4th of July weekend I was talking about the late planting and how that would affect the farmers and she was like "well our neighbor has had his corn in the ground for a month"...like that one person somehow made all the difference as opposed to the million other farmers my data is collected from.

2. Right before the last recession. It is the way it always happens.

1. The rise in lower end wages is a hard number, that we have not seen like this, for a very long time.

2. No, we did not. The underlying trend has been the disconnect between rises in productivity and rises in wages, and the economic cycle has not touched it. Until now.

1. Or so your story goes.

2. Of course we did

 

[Correll]

1. Nope. I used being "cute" to point out that you are doing what you said you don't do, and standing by your conclusion, despite it being based on "Stories" you have heard. I'm fine, btw, with you having conclusions based on personal observation. So, I'm not the one playing with a double standard.


2. Might be. When was the last time we saw such encouraging numbers for the working poor and middle class in America?

1. My conclusions are based upon facts and data. not stories. Why do you need to make things up about me? You remind me of my SIL, over the 4th of July weekend I was talking about the late planting and how that would affect the farmers and she was like "well our neighbor has had his corn in the ground for a month"...like that one person somehow made all the difference as opposed to the million other farmers my data is collected from.

2. Right before the last recession. It is the way it always happens.

1. The rise in lower end wages is a hard number, that we have not seen like this, for a very long time.

2. No, we did not. The underlying trend has been the disconnect between rises in productivity and rises in wages, and the economic cycle has not touched it. Until now.

1. Or so your story goes.

2. Of course we did

No, we have not.


Wage Stagnation in Nine Charts


Cumulative change in real annual wages, by wage group, 1979–2013
Top 1% Bottom 90%
1979 0.0% 0.0%
1980 3.4% -2.2%
1981 3.1% -2.6%
1982 9.5% -3.9%
1983 13.6% -3.7%
1984 20.7% -1.8%
1985 23.0% -1.0%
1986 32.6% 1.1%
1987 53.5% 2.1%
1988 68.7% 2.2%
1989 63.3% 1.8%
1990 64.8% 1.1%
1991 53.6% 0.0%
1992 74.3% 1.5%
1993 67.9% 0.9%
1994 63.4% 2.0%
1995 70.2% 2.8%
1996 79.0% 4.1%
1997 100.6% 7.0%
1998 113.1% 11.0%
1999 129.7% 13.2%
2000 144.8% 15.3%
2001 130.4% 15.7%
2002 109.3% 15.6%
2003 113.9% 15.7%
2004 127.2% 15.6%
2005 135.4% 15.0%
2006 143.4% 15.7%
2007 156.2% 16.7%
2008 137.5% 16.0%
2009 116.2% 16.0%
2010 130.9% 15.2%
2011 134.1% 14.6%
2012 148.4% 14.7%
2013 137.7% 15.2%

Cumulative growth in annual wage since 1979Top 1%138%Bottom 90%15%-50050100150200%1980199020002010


ChartData

 

[Terri4Trump]

yeah, we remember all those articles written 2 months ago foretelling economic collapse..........

All lies by Liberals and Democrats, born liars

 

[longknife]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

As of July of this year, Trump's economy has buried Obama's economy in the number of new manufacturing jobs created. Forbes magazine:

In the last 30 months of President Obama’s term, manufacturing employment grew by 185,000 or 1.5%. In President Trump’s first 30 months, manufacturers added 499,000 jobs, expanding by 4.0%. (In Trump's First 30 Months, Manufacturing Up By 314,000 Jobs Over Obama; Which States Are Hot? see also https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41898.pdf)​

In fact, last year, 2018, the economy added 264,000 manufacturing jobs, the biggest one-year increase since 1988.

U.S. enjoys best manufacturing jobs growth of the last 30 years​

And keep in mind that during Obama's entire presidency, all 8 years, we had a net loss in manufacturing jobs. After Obama signed the 2015 compromise budget deal, which made most of the Bush tax cuts permanent and preserved about $700 billion in tax breaks, manufacturing jobs began to bounce back. But the jump in manufacturing jobs under Trump has been much greater than it was under Obama.

I guess this means that Trump's tariffs are not "devastating our manufacturing sector," hey? Does this mean that all the liberals who have posted threads that have pounced on the short, temporary drop in manufacturing jobs that we've seen in the last few months--will those liberals now admit that since Trump has been in office, we have seen a historic increase in manufacturing jobs?

Will the Democratic presidential candidates stop repeating the lie that Trump has not kept his promise to increase the number of manufacturing jobs? In spite of the slowdown in manufacturing jobs that we've seen over the last few months, there has still been a large overall increase in manufacturing jobs since Trump took office, and, again, last month we saw the biggest jump since 1983. It is misleading to cherry-pick the numbers just for the last few months and ignore the numbers for the 34 months that Trump has been in office.

DNC off on Trump, Wisconsin manufacturing jobs

Trump is bringing back REAL jobs. All Obama did was create part time shit jobs

Trump is bringing back REAL jobs.

I've seen lots of similar reports and have always wondered what it is they exactly mean.

What kind of manufacturing jobs?

When I was a kid, I saw reports of hundreds of workers on factory floors. Most of them had one, very specific task that they repeated hour after hour, day after day.

Those jobs no longer exist.

How many companies actually make their products from scratch? Raw materials to final product?

And how many jobs have the same mind-numbing rut?

I'd really like to know just what kind of jobs these are are who is getting them.

 

[Terri4Trump]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

As of July of this year, Trump's economy has buried Obama's economy in the number of new manufacturing jobs created. Forbes magazine:

In the last 30 months of President Obama’s term, manufacturing employment grew by 185,000 or 1.5%. In President Trump’s first 30 months, manufacturers added 499,000 jobs, expanding by 4.0%. (In Trump's First 30 Months, Manufacturing Up By 314,000 Jobs Over Obama; Which States Are Hot? see also https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41898.pdf)​

In fact, last year, 2018, the economy added 264,000 manufacturing jobs, the biggest one-year increase since 1988.

U.S. enjoys best manufacturing jobs growth of the last 30 years​

And keep in mind that during Obama's entire presidency, all 8 years, we had a net loss in manufacturing jobs. After Obama signed the 2015 compromise budget deal, which made most of the Bush tax cuts permanent and preserved about $700 billion in tax breaks, manufacturing jobs began to bounce back. But the jump in manufacturing jobs under Trump has been much greater than it was under Obama.

I guess this means that Trump's tariffs are not "devastating our manufacturing sector," hey? Does this mean that all the liberals who have posted threads that have pounced on the short, temporary drop in manufacturing jobs that we've seen in the last few months--will those liberals now admit that since Trump has been in office, we have seen a historic increase in manufacturing jobs?

Will the Democratic presidential candidates stop repeating the lie that Trump has not kept his promise to increase the number of manufacturing jobs? In spite of the slowdown in manufacturing jobs that we've seen over the last few months, there has still been a large overall increase in manufacturing jobs since Trump took office, and, again, last month we saw the biggest jump since 1983. It is misleading to cherry-pick the numbers just for the last few months and ignore the numbers for the 34 months that Trump has been in office.

DNC off on Trump, Wisconsin manufacturing jobs

The economy added 266,000 jobs in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly Employment Situation Report released today. The job totals for September and October were also revised upward, leading to a total increase of 41,000 additional jobs.

The return of the striking GM workers boosted November payrolls, as well. Taking the average over the past 2 months, job growth has been 211,000 per month (netting out the impact of GM on each month’s numbers). This is an increase in the rate of job growth from earlier in 2019.

November’s impressive gain greatly exceeded median market expectations by 44 percent and brought 2019’s average monthly job creation to 180,000. Since President Trump’s election, the economy has added more than 7 million jobs—5.1 million more jobs than the Congressional Budget Office projected in its final forecast before the 2016 election.

In the 36 months since President Trump was elected, the economy has created at least 100,000 jobs in 33 of those months and has added jobs every month. Considering the unprecedented length of the expansion and the 50-year low unemployment rate, continued job growth at this point again demonstrates that today’s labor market remains strong.

Because of the Trump Administration’s pro-growth policies, high labor demand is leading to increased employment and growing wages as businesses raise pay to attract workers. Nominal average hourly earnings increased at a 3.1 percent rate year-over-year, making November the 16th consecutive month that this measure of wage growth has been above 3 percent. Before the start of this streak, nominal average hourly wage gains had not reached 3 percent in more than 10 years.

When taking inflation into account, real wages are also growing. Based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, inflation in the past year was 1.3 percent as of October, meaning real wages increased at a year-over-year rate of 1.9 percent (November inflation data is not yet available). Assuming inflation holds steady this month, this translates into real wage growth of more than $1,000 over the past 12 months for someone working 40 hours per week year-round at the average wage.

At 3.7 percent, November year-over-year wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers was near a post-recession high achieved last month and again exceeded overall year-over-year wage growth. From the start of the current expansion to the end of 2016, average wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers lagged that of managers, the bottom 10 percent of wage earners lagged that of the top 10 percent, those without a college degree lagged that of college graduates, and African Americans lagged that of white Americans. Since President Trump took office, each of these trends has been reversed, contributing to lower income inequality.

November’s 3.5 percent unemployment rate returned to the 50-year low previously achieved under the Trump Administration. The unemployment rate has stayed at or below 4 percent for 21 straight months, and during that time African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, those with disabilities, and those without a high school diploma all experienced series-low unemployment rates.

As further evidence of how much the labor market has improved under President Trump, other data released by BLS this week show that the number of people who experienced unemployment last year declined by 2.4 million compared to 2016. This number should decline again in 2019 because, under the Trump Administration, the number of people claiming unemployment insurance as a share of the population is the lowest on record since the data began in 1967.

The labor force participation rate—which includes people who are working and those currently looking for work—in November was 63.2 percent, 0.5 percentage point above the rate when President Trump was elected. The labor force participation rate for prime-age adults (ages 25-54), which largely avoids the demographic effects of the aging population, remained at 82.8 percent—1.4 percentage points above its rate in November 2016. Small changes in labor force participation can have major effects on the economy: Because of this increase, 2.1 million more prime-age adults were in the labor force in October compared to if the participation rate remained at November 2016 levels.

A faster pace of job growth in recent months shows the continued strength of the United States labor market. Low unemployment, combined with more job openings than job seekers, leads to consistent wage increases for American workers. The Trump Administration has shown that pro-growth policies have raised labor demand and had a tremendous positive effect on working Americans across demographics and the income distribution.

November Job Gains Once Again Smash Expectations