Manufacturing Jobs Jumped by 54,000 in November! How About Those Tariffs?!

[Correll]

Actually, as it is such an old expansion, when you would expect to see such numbers plateauing, instead of accelerating,


it makes them far MORE significant.


It gives even MORE weight to the ideas behind them.


AND suggests what I want to see, ie, a change not in the short term numbers, but a deeper changing in the underlying long term trends.

They are not accelerating...there was one good month...in a month that is historically the 2nd best for job growth.
You people get way to excited over a single month.

This is rapidly leaving "isolated report" behind.


And it is accelerating. This recovery is ancient. In the normal course of events, it would have ended long ago.


That Trump is getting improvements in manufacturing at this late date, is shocking.

There is no acceleration, this year will be the slowest year since 2011, and then only because Jan and Nov were outliers from the rest of the year.

13,000 new manufacturing jobs is really nothing to bring crowing about

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

What does that have to do with my post?

Well, you are dismissing one encouraging trend. I wondered if you were dismissing another, and if it two positive trends might suggest a pattern to you.

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

 

[Correll]

When you've got a Trumpian unemployment rate of 3.5% instead of an Obamian rate of 7, there isn't much room for growth.

Obama left office with the UE rate of 4.7, a 39.5% drop from his first month in office.
It is now 3.5%, a drop of 25.5%.

3 years in Obama had a rate of 8.5%, and so became the food stamp president. Compare to Trump's 3.5% and his plans to ax food stamps to those how can work.

Democrats are very proud of this I understand.

Obama took over in the middle of the deepest recession in modern times. Trump took over in the middle of a boom.

Exactly. The normal business cycle helped Obama and hindered Trump, and yet Trump is moving on to new highs.

A stupid ass trade war is what is hindering Trump. If not for the Fed pulling his bacon out of the fire there would be no growth at all.

Funny, an ancient upswing, and a trade war, and yet the numbers are good.


Very interesting. Not what one would expect, if they embrace the Free Trade Conventional Wisdom, as you have done.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

They are not accelerating...there was one good month...in a month that is historically the 2nd best for job growth.
You people get way to excited over a single month.

This is rapidly leaving "isolated report" behind.


And it is accelerating. This recovery is ancient. In the normal course of events, it would have ended long ago.


That Trump is getting improvements in manufacturing at this late date, is shocking.

There is no acceleration, this year will be the slowest year since 2011, and then only because Jan and Nov were outliers from the rest of the year.

13,000 new manufacturing jobs is really nothing to bring crowing about

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

What does that have to do with my post?

Well, you are dismissing one encouraging trend. I wondered if you were dismissing another, and if it two positive trends might suggest a pattern to you.

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

I have not dismissed it, wage increase is a good thing...but it is also an expected thing as the labor market tightens...again basic supply and demand.
What other trend are you speaking of?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Obama left office with the UE rate of 4.7, a 39.5% drop from his first month in office.
It is now 3.5%, a drop of 25.5%.

3 years in Obama had a rate of 8.5%, and so became the food stamp president. Compare to Trump's 3.5% and his plans to ax food stamps to those how can work.

Democrats are very proud of this I understand.

Obama took over in the middle of the deepest recession in modern times. Trump took over in the middle of a boom.

Exactly. The normal business cycle helped Obama and hindered Trump, and yet Trump is moving on to new highs.

A stupid ass trade war is what is hindering Trump. If not for the Fed pulling his bacon out of the fire there would be no growth at all.

Funny, an ancient upswing, and a trade war, and yet the numbers are good.


Very interesting. Not what one would expect, if they embrace the Free Trade Conventional Wisdom, as you have done.

Other than one good month of jobs what other numbers are “good”?

The current expansion is being kept alive by lowering interest rates and massive government spending. Doing that is like using Red Bull to stay awake...fun while it last but the crash is worse

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

So what I posted with the link was not a fact? Got it. Feel free to never respond to my posts. You’re not on my level of education anyway.

You have the last part right, I am not anywhere near as low as you on the education level. I would have to remove half my brain to get down to your level.

Whatever helps you sleep at night. You going to give BHO credit for the average wage growth as well?

I do not give Obama credit for anything other than screwing up the healthcare system even worse than it was. I do not give the president credit for what the private sector does.

that is the main difference between you and I, your first instinct is to give the government credit for everything.

As for wage growth, lower UE always leads to faster wage growth. Basic law of supply and demand in play. Did your education not teach you about that?

You just said it started dropping in 2014? You cannot have it both ways. I agree with you of course. But the lowering of the corp. tax rate did increase job growth. That is undeniable.

Wages are always the last thing to change, no need to pay more till the labor market is actually tight.

There were about 500,000 jobs created in 2018 than 2017....if you wish to give the tax cuts credit for those I cannot argue. But barring a great December this year will be under 2017 numbers. So any boost to job creation was short term.

I am not sure how much lower unemployment can go tbh. The next obstacle is the trade war. I do believe if Trump is re-elected he will attack entitlements. Just a guess.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

You have the last part right, I am not anywhere near as low as you on the education level. I would have to remove half my brain to get down to your level.

Whatever helps you sleep at night. You going to give BHO credit for the average wage growth as well?

I do not give Obama credit for anything other than screwing up the healthcare system even worse than it was. I do not give the president credit for what the private sector does.

that is the main difference between you and I, your first instinct is to give the government credit for everything.

As for wage growth, lower UE always leads to faster wage growth. Basic law of supply and demand in play. Did your education not teach you about that?

You just said it started dropping in 2014? You cannot have it both ways. I agree with you of course. But the lowering of the corp. tax rate did increase job growth. That is undeniable.

Wages are always the last thing to change, no need to pay more till the labor market is actually tight.

There were about 500,000 jobs created in 2018 than 2017....if you wish to give the tax cuts credit for those I cannot argue. But barring a great December this year will be under 2017 numbers. So any boost to job creation was short term.

I am not sure how much lower unemployment can go tbh. The next obstacle is the trade war. I do believe if Trump is re-elected he will attack entitlements. Just a guess.

Not much if at all, it is about as low as we would want it.

I am not sure why you think he would, he has never cared about them. I think it is more likely he pushes some form of UHC

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Whatever helps you sleep at night. You going to give BHO credit for the average wage growth as well?

I do not give Obama credit for anything other than screwing up the healthcare system even worse than it was. I do not give the president credit for what the private sector does.

that is the main difference between you and I, your first instinct is to give the government credit for everything.

As for wage growth, lower UE always leads to faster wage growth. Basic law of supply and demand in play. Did your education not teach you about that?

You just said it started dropping in 2014? You cannot have it both ways. I agree with you of course. But the lowering of the corp. tax rate did increase job growth. That is undeniable.

Wages are always the last thing to change, no need to pay more till the labor market is actually tight.

There were about 500,000 jobs created in 2018 than 2017....if you wish to give the tax cuts credit for those I cannot argue. But barring a great December this year will be under 2017 numbers. So any boost to job creation was short term.

I am not sure how much lower unemployment can go tbh. The next obstacle is the trade war. I do believe if Trump is re-elected he will attack entitlements. Just a guess.

Not much if at all, it is about as low as we would want it.

I am not sure why you think he would, he has never cared about them. I think it is more likely he pushes some form of UHC

Because there is a lot of fraud and simple chaos there. At the very least I hope he organizes it better. I can see him raising the retirement age to collect SSI for those under 40 and he will likely try to gauge what the inefficiencies in Medicaid are. At least I hope he does and of course he was to win first.

 

[mikegriffith1]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

That's only because the GM strikers went back to work. We are in a Manufacturing decline.

Still suffering from a reading deficiency, hey? Go back and read the OP. Manufacturing jobs have risen much more under Trump than they did under Obama, even counting the slowdown of the last few months. In fact, during Obama's 8 years, we suffered a net loss in manufacturing jobs, whereas we have seen a historic increase in manufacturing jobs under Trump.

 

[mikegriffith1]

According to the BLS jobs report for November, manufacturing jobs jumped by a whopping 54,000 last month, the biggest one-month increase since 1983!

That's only because the GM strikers went back to work. We are in a Manufacturing decline.

Still suffering from a reading deficiency, hey? Go back and read the OP. Manufacturing jobs have risen much more under Trump than they did under Obama, even counting the slowdown of the last few months. In fact, during Obama's 8 years, we suffered a net loss in manufacturing jobs, whereas we have seen a historic increase in manufacturing jobs under Trump.

Just to hammer home this point and to debunk JoeB131's usual leftist nonsense, when Trump took office in January 2017, there were 12,368,000 manufacturing jobs. As of last month, there are now 12,865,000 manufacturing jobs. That's an increase of just under 500,000 manufacturing jobs in less than three years. We haven't seen this kind of growth in several decades.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

By the way, last month the economy added 266,000 new jobs overall, one of the biggest jumps in a while.

 

[JoeB131]

Just can't accept anything good for America. Reason liberals can never have power again.

this isn't "good" for America... it actually indicates a bigger problem- that we aren't replacing retiring workers with new ones fast enough...

 

[Correll]

This is rapidly leaving "isolated report" behind.


And it is accelerating. This recovery is ancient. In the normal course of events, it would have ended long ago.


That Trump is getting improvements in manufacturing at this late date, is shocking.

There is no acceleration, this year will be the slowest year since 2011, and then only because Jan and Nov were outliers from the rest of the year.

13,000 new manufacturing jobs is really nothing to bring crowing about

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

What does that have to do with my post?

Well, you are dismissing one encouraging trend. I wondered if you were dismissing another, and if it two positive trends might suggest a pattern to you.

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

I have not dismissed it, wage increase is a good thing...but it is also an expected thing as the labor market tightens...again basic supply and demand.
What other trend are you speaking of?

It is to be expected as the labor market tightens.

1. But for many decades, even during periods of tightening, we did not get it, or not very much of it.

2. and for decades, we have had a labor market constantly flooded with cheap immigrant labor.


So, changing that, is HUGE.

 

[Correll]

3 years in Obama had a rate of 8.5%, and so became the food stamp president. Compare to Trump's 3.5% and his plans to ax food stamps to those how can work.

Democrats are very proud of this I understand.

Obama took over in the middle of the deepest recession in modern times. Trump took over in the middle of a boom.

Exactly. The normal business cycle helped Obama and hindered Trump, and yet Trump is moving on to new highs.

A stupid ass trade war is what is hindering Trump. If not for the Fed pulling his bacon out of the fire there would be no growth at all.

Funny, an ancient upswing, and a trade war, and yet the numbers are good.


Very interesting. Not what one would expect, if they embrace the Free Trade Conventional Wisdom, as you have done.

Other than one good month of jobs what other numbers are “good”?

The current expansion is being kept alive by lowering interest rates and massive government spending. Doing that is like using Red Bull to stay awake...fun while it last but the crash is worse

So, what are your answers?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

There is no acceleration, this year will be the slowest year since 2011, and then only because Jan and Nov were outliers from the rest of the year.

13,000 new manufacturing jobs is really nothing to bring crowing about

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

What does that have to do with my post?

Well, you are dismissing one encouraging trend. I wondered if you were dismissing another, and if it two positive trends might suggest a pattern to you.

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

I have not dismissed it, wage increase is a good thing...but it is also an expected thing as the labor market tightens...again basic supply and demand.
What other trend are you speaking of?

It is to be expected as the labor market tightens.

1. But for many decades, even during periods of tightening, we did not get it, or not very much of it.

2. and for decades, we have had a labor market constantly flooded with cheap immigrant labor.


So, changing that, is HUGE.

It has not changed and yet wages are rising.

Why is that?

 

[Jitss617]

AWE HELL YEA!

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Obama took over in the middle of the deepest recession in modern times. Trump took over in the middle of a boom.

Exactly. The normal business cycle helped Obama and hindered Trump, and yet Trump is moving on to new highs.

A stupid ass trade war is what is hindering Trump. If not for the Fed pulling his bacon out of the fire there would be no growth at all.

Funny, an ancient upswing, and a trade war, and yet the numbers are good.


Very interesting. Not what one would expect, if they embrace the Free Trade Conventional Wisdom, as you have done.

Other than one good month of jobs what other numbers are “good”?

The current expansion is being kept alive by lowering interest rates and massive government spending. Doing that is like using Red Bull to stay awake...fun while it last but the crash is worse

So, what are your answers?

Let the cycles happen, save your red bull so the down turn is not as painful and long lasting. They are part of our system, they cannot be avoided, only delayed. Trump is emptying his magazine to delay it past Nov 2020. That will just make it worse when it comes.

What tools are left for once the downturn hits? Interest rates are already historically low and we are spending money like drunken sailors on shore leave. If we are adding a trillion dollars a year to our national debt during the "boom" the damage done during the next recession will be devastating.

Think about this...the last recession almost tripled the deficit is a single year...can we absorb 3 trillion dollars of debt in a year?

 

[Correll]

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

What does that have to do with my post?

Well, you are dismissing one encouraging trend. I wondered if you were dismissing another, and if it two positive trends might suggest a pattern to you.

Do you care about the rise in lower end wages?

I have not dismissed it, wage increase is a good thing...but it is also an expected thing as the labor market tightens...again basic supply and demand.
What other trend are you speaking of?

It is to be expected as the labor market tightens.

1. But for many decades, even during periods of tightening, we did not get it, or not very much of it.

2. and for decades, we have had a labor market constantly flooded with cheap immigrant labor.


So, changing that, is HUGE.

It has not changed and yet wages are rising.

Why is that?

That the wages are rising, is a huge change.


IMO, the reason is the change of tone on trade and immigration.


Trade to increase demand, ie more manufacturing jobs.


Immigration to decrease supply of labor, increasing price, ie wages.


Supply and demand. Simple, yet effective. And something we forgot, a long time ago.


One would be tempted to call Trump a genius, except this is more a factor of the rest of society being drooling morons.

 

[Correll]

Exactly. The normal business cycle helped Obama and hindered Trump, and yet Trump is moving on to new highs.

A stupid ass trade war is what is hindering Trump. If not for the Fed pulling his bacon out of the fire there would be no growth at all.

Funny, an ancient upswing, and a trade war, and yet the numbers are good.


Very interesting. Not what one would expect, if they embrace the Free Trade Conventional Wisdom, as you have done.

Other than one good month of jobs what other numbers are “good”?

The current expansion is being kept alive by lowering interest rates and massive government spending. Doing that is like using Red Bull to stay awake...fun while it last but the crash is worse

So, what are your answers?

Let the cycles happen, save your red bull so the down turn is not as painful and long lasting. They are part of our system, they cannot be avoided, only delayed. Trump is emptying his magazine to delay it past Nov 2020. That will just make it worse when it comes.

What tools are left for once the downturn hits? Interest rates are already historically low and we are spending money like drunken sailors on shore leave. If we are adding a trillion dollars a year to our national debt during the "boom" the damage done during the next recession will be devastating.

Think about this...the last recession almost tripled the deficit is a single year...can we absorb 3 trillion dollars of debt in a year?

Not bad.


BUT, the interesting thing is, that with policies of exporting manufacturing and importing unlimited labor,


that even in the good times, wage stagnation has been really hurting American workers and communities.


If we could flip that underlying trend, so that even in bad times, wages are still trending upwards,



that changes the whole world, to a better place.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

That the wages are rising, is a huge change.


IMO, the reason is the change of tone on trade and immigration.


Trade to increase demand, ie more manufacturing jobs.


Immigration to decrease supply of labor, increasing price, ie wages.


Supply and demand. Simple, yet effective. And something we forgot, a long time ago.


One would be tempted to call Trump a genius, except this is more a factor of the rest of society being drooling morons.

Is it really that huge of a change...or is that just a talking point?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

One would be tempted to call Trump a genius, except this is more a factor of the rest of society being drooling morons.

The only thing he has done at the genius level is convince his followers he is the reason these things are happening.

 

[Correll]

That the wages are rising, is a huge change.


IMO, the reason is the change of tone on trade and immigration.


Trade to increase demand, ie more manufacturing jobs.


Immigration to decrease supply of labor, increasing price, ie wages.


Supply and demand. Simple, yet effective. And something we forgot, a long time ago.


One would be tempted to call Trump a genius, except this is more a factor of the rest of society being drooling morons.

Is it really that huge of a change...or is that just a talking point?

View attachment 294116

I was pretty clear about the fact that I was discussing the lower end wages.


Posting an AVERAGE, that lumps a New York Lawyer in with a broom pusher in Allentown, is almost insulting.


Please try again.