LOL @ Public Policy Polling

[TheGreatGatsby]

I kept noticing that some PPP poll was especially skewing the Real Clear Nonsense averages for Obama. So I decided to check them out. They're an outfit named Public Policy Polling.

Here are PPP poll results just from the last week:

Colorado - Obama plus 4
Iowa - Obama plus 2
Wisconsin - Obama plus 6
North Carolina - Tied
New Hampshire - Obama plus 2
Virginia - Obama plus 5
National - Obama plus 1
Nevada - Obama plus 4

The poll is an automated voice response poll. The organization is run by by Democrat, Dean Debnam. Also, many PPP polls are commissioned by the Daily Kos. Meaning, they're paying a third party for the narrative that they are trying to sell.

 

[AceRothstein]

I kept noticing that some PPP poll was especially skewing the Real Clear Nonsense averages for Obama. So I decided to check them out. They're an outfit named Public Policy Polling.

Here are PPP poll results just from the last week:

Colorado - Obama plus 4
Iowa - Obama plus 2
Wisconsin - Obama plus 6
North Carolina - Tied
New Hampshire - Obama plus 2
Virginia - Obama plus 5
National - Obama plus 1
Nevada - Obama plus 4

The poll is an automated voice response poll. The organization is run by by Democrat, Dean Debnam. Also, many PPP polls are commissioned by the Daily Kos. Meaning, they're paying a third party for the narrative that they are trying to sell.

One could make the same post about any pollster out there. Rasmussen skews right, PPP skews left and Gravis is fucking all over the place. One advantage PPP has over the others is that they do their polls over a few days whereas a lot of the Gravis and Ras state polls are done in one day.

 

[Misty]

So polls are meaningless? Complete lies? Wow the libs seem to be leaping out of their panties with excitement over the polls.

 

[AceRothstein]

So polls are meaningless? Complete lies? Wow the libs seem to be leaping out of their panties with excitement over the polls.

No, looking at the average of the polls will give you a much clearer picture as there will always be outliers.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

I kept noticing that some PPP poll was especially skewing the Real Clear Nonsense averages for Obama. So I decided to check them out. They're an outfit named Public Policy Polling.

Here are PPP poll results just from the last week:

Colorado - Obama plus 4
Iowa - Obama plus 2
Wisconsin - Obama plus 6
North Carolina - Tied
New Hampshire - Obama plus 2
Virginia - Obama plus 5
National - Obama plus 1
Nevada - Obama plus 4

The poll is an automated voice response poll. The organization is run by by Democrat, Dean Debnam. Also, many PPP polls are commissioned by the Daily Kos. Meaning, they're paying a third party for the narrative that they are trying to sell.

One could make the same post about any pollster out there. Rasmussen skews right, PPP skews left and Gravis is fucking all over the place. One advantage PPP has over the others is that they do their polls over a few days whereas a lot of the Gravis and Ras state polls are done in one day.

They could equivocate while ignoring that Rasmussen has been the most accurate poll in the last two presidential elections.

 

[AceRothstein]

I kept noticing that some PPP poll was especially skewing the Real Clear Nonsense averages for Obama. So I decided to check them out. They're an outfit named Public Policy Polling.

Here are PPP poll results just from the last week:

Colorado - Obama plus 4
Iowa - Obama plus 2
Wisconsin - Obama plus 6
North Carolina - Tied
New Hampshire - Obama plus 2
Virginia - Obama plus 5
National - Obama plus 1
Nevada - Obama plus 4

The poll is an automated voice response poll. The organization is run by by Democrat, Dean Debnam. Also, many PPP polls are commissioned by the Daily Kos. Meaning, they're paying a third party for the narrative that they are trying to sell.

One could make the same post about any pollster out there. Rasmussen skews right, PPP skews left and Gravis is fucking all over the place. One advantage PPP has over the others is that they do their polls over a few days whereas a lot of the Gravis and Ras state polls are done in one day.

They could equivocate while ignoring that Rasmussen has been the most accurate poll in the last two presidential elections.

They were not the most accurate in 2008 nationally and their state polling left a lot to be desired. For example with Ohio, their last poll showed a tie while Obama won the state by 4.

 

[PoliticalChic]

One could make the same post about any pollster out there. Rasmussen skews right, PPP skews left and Gravis is fucking all over the place. One advantage PPP has over the others is that they do their polls over a few days whereas a lot of the Gravis and Ras state polls are done in one day.

They could equivocate while ignoring that Rasmussen has been the most accurate poll in the last two presidential elections.

They were not the most accurate in 2008 nationally and their state polling left a lot to be desired. For example with Ohio, their last poll showed a tie while Obama won the state by 4.

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

 

[AceRothstein]

They could equivocate while ignoring that Rasmussen has been the most accurate poll in the last two presidential elections.

They were not the most accurate in 2008 nationally and their state polling left a lot to be desired. For example with Ohio, their last poll showed a tie while Obama won the state by 4.

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

Did you read the top of that study? For some reason it was done before the election and assuming a 6.15 point Obama victory. Obama won by 7.3 points. CNN, Ipsos and Fox actually were closest at 7 points each.

 

[Oddball]

I kept noticing that some PPP poll was especially skewing the Real Clear Nonsense averages for Obama. So I decided to check them out. They're an outfit named Public Policy Polling.

Here are PPP poll results just from the last week:

Colorado - Obama plus 4
Iowa - Obama plus 2
Wisconsin - Obama plus 6
North Carolina - Tied
New Hampshire - Obama plus 2
Virginia - Obama plus 5
National - Obama plus 1
Nevada - Obama plus 4

The poll is an automated voice response poll. The organization is run by by Democrat, Dean Debnam. Also, many PPP polls are commissioned by the Daily Kos. Meaning, they're paying a third party for the narrative that they are trying to sell.

In case you missed it, RCP has Piss Poor Polling listed as a partisan (D) pollster....Which make ya wonder why their numbers are included at all.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

One could make the same post about any pollster out there. Rasmussen skews right, PPP skews left and Gravis is fucking all over the place. One advantage PPP has over the others is that they do their polls over a few days whereas a lot of the Gravis and Ras state polls are done in one day.

They could equivocate while ignoring that Rasmussen has been the most accurate poll in the last two presidential elections.

They were not the most accurate in 2008 nationally and their state polling left a lot to be desired. For example with Ohio, their last poll showed a tie while Obama won the state by 4.

Do you just talk out of your ass for the fun of it? Rasmussen had 08 52-46 for Obama; nearly identical to the 53-46 outcome and that as PC points out, was the most accurate national poll of 08.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

I kept noticing that some PPP poll was especially skewing the Real Clear Nonsense averages for Obama. So I decided to check them out. They're an outfit named Public Policy Polling.

Here are PPP poll results just from the last week:

Colorado - Obama plus 4
Iowa - Obama plus 2
Wisconsin - Obama plus 6
North Carolina - Tied
New Hampshire - Obama plus 2
Virginia - Obama plus 5
National - Obama plus 1
Nevada - Obama plus 4

The poll is an automated voice response poll. The organization is run by by Democrat, Dean Debnam. Also, many PPP polls are commissioned by the Daily Kos. Meaning, they're paying a third party for the narrative that they are trying to sell.

In case you missed it, RCP has Piss Poor Polling listed as a partisan (D) pollster....Which make ya wonder why their numbers are included at all.

I saw that. And likely, the reason that Rasmussen doesn't have an R is b/c they are no longer owned by him and that he is there as figurehead.

 

[AceRothstein]

They could equivocate while ignoring that Rasmussen has been the most accurate poll in the last two presidential elections.

They were not the most accurate in 2008 nationally and their state polling left a lot to be desired. For example with Ohio, their last poll showed a tie while Obama won the state by 4.

Do you just talk out of your ass for the fun of it? Rasmussen had 08 52-46 for Obama; nearly identical to the 53-46 outcome and that as PC points out, was the most accurate national poll of 08.

But her post was incorrect. Ipsos and CNN had it exactly at 53-46. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

I don't know how many times it has to be pointed out on here that the Fordham study citing Ras as the best 2008 pollster was done before the election. Maybe you cons have a reading comprehension problem.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

They were not the most accurate in 2008 nationally and their state polling left a lot to be desired. For example with Ohio, their last poll showed a tie while Obama won the state by 4.

Do you just talk out of your ass for the fun of it? Rasmussen had 08 52-46 for Obama; nearly identical to the 53-46 outcome and that as PC points out, was the most accurate national poll of 08.

But her post was incorrect. Ipsos and CNN had it exactly at 53-46. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

I don't know how many times it has to be pointed out on here that the Fordham study citing Ras as the best 2008 pollster was done before the election. Maybe you cons have a reading comprehension problem.

My guess would be that the rounding up/down of results/polls could account for the discrepancy. But even if it is correct that two polls were marginally more accurate; it doesn't change Rasmussen's accuracy in 08 and 04 when they were regarded as the most accurate pollsters then too.

See, you're trying to get hung up in trite details; when the original point is that Rasmussen is a solid poll that has been consistently quite accurate.

 

[AceRothstein]

Do you just talk out of your ass for the fun of it? Rasmussen had 08 52-46 for Obama; nearly identical to the 53-46 outcome and that as PC points out, was the most accurate national poll of 08.

But her post was incorrect. Ipsos and CNN had it exactly at 53-46. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

I don't know how many times it has to be pointed out on here that the Fordham study citing Ras as the best 2008 pollster was done before the election. Maybe you cons have a reading comprehension problem.

My guess would be that the rounding up/down of results/polls could account for the discrepancy. But even if it is correct that two polls were marginally more accurate; it doesn't change Rasmussen's accuracy in 08 and 04 when they were regarded as the most accurate pollsters then too.

See, you're trying to get hung up in trite details; when the original point is that Rasmussen is a solid poll that has been consistently quite accurate.

Well one problem is that you are comparing Rasmussen's national record with PPP's state by state polling record. PPP didn't do national polling in 2008 while both did state polling. State polling is what you need to look at for accuracy as that is how the election is going to be decided.

 

[AceRothstein]

But her post was incorrect. Ipsos and CNN had it exactly at 53-46. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

I don't know how many times it has to be pointed out on here that the Fordham study citing Ras as the best 2008 pollster was done before the election. Maybe you cons have a reading comprehension problem.

My guess would be that the rounding up/down of results/polls could account for the discrepancy. But even if it is correct that two polls were marginally more accurate; it doesn't change Rasmussen's accuracy in 08 and 04 when they were regarded as the most accurate pollsters then too.

See, you're trying to get hung up in trite details; when the original point is that Rasmussen is a solid poll that has been consistently quite accurate.

Well one problem is that you are comparing Rasmussen's national record with PPP's state by state polling record. PPP didn't do national polling in 2008 while both did state polling. State polling is what you need to look at for accuracy as that is how the election is going to be decided.

Here are some swing state results from 2008, directly from RCP. It is the latest poll from each pollster.

State PPP Ras Actual Advantage
CO O+10 O+4 O+9 PPP
FL O+2 M+1 O+3 PPP
IN O+1 M+3 O+1 PPP
MI O+13 O+10 O+16 PPP
MO Tie Tie M+.1 Tie
NV O+4 O+4 O+13 Tie (Shitty job by both here.)
NM O+17 O+10 O+15 PPP
NC O+1 M+1 O+.3 PPP
OH O+2 Tie O+4 PPP
PA O+8 O+6 O+10 PPP
VA O+6 O+4 O+6 PPP

PPP didn't poll the rest of the swing states, they must not have considered them swing states in '08.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

But her post was incorrect. Ipsos and CNN had it exactly at 53-46. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

I don't know how many times it has to be pointed out on here that the Fordham study citing Ras as the best 2008 pollster was done before the election. Maybe you cons have a reading comprehension problem.

My guess would be that the rounding up/down of results/polls could account for the discrepancy. But even if it is correct that two polls were marginally more accurate; it doesn't change Rasmussen's accuracy in 08 and 04 when they were regarded as the most accurate pollsters then too.

See, you're trying to get hung up in trite details; when the original point is that Rasmussen is a solid poll that has been consistently quite accurate.

Well one problem is that you are comparing Rasmussen's national record with PPP's state by state polling record. PPP didn't do national polling in 2008 while both did state polling. State polling is what you need to look at for accuracy as that is how the election is going to be decided.

PPP is far off the majority of polls right now and I don't trust them more than more proven entities like Gallup and Rasmussen. Again, PPP is being paid by off by the Dem machined to artificially create Obama momentum with their hack polls. That is why Obama is up in every poll and even tied in states like NC when Gravis has Romney plus 8 and Rassmussen has it plus 6.

 

[AceRothstein]

My guess would be that the rounding up/down of results/polls could account for the discrepancy. But even if it is correct that two polls were marginally more accurate; it doesn't change Rasmussen's accuracy in 08 and 04 when they were regarded as the most accurate pollsters then too.

See, you're trying to get hung up in trite details; when the original point is that Rasmussen is a solid poll that has been consistently quite accurate.

Well one problem is that you are comparing Rasmussen's national record with PPP's state by state polling record. PPP didn't do national polling in 2008 while both did state polling. State polling is what you need to look at for accuracy as that is how the election is going to be decided.

PPP is far off the majority of polls right now and I don't trust them more than more proven entities like Gallup and Rasmussen. Again, PPP is being paid by off by the Dem machined to artificially create Obama momentum with their hack polls. That is why Obama is up in every poll and even tied in states like NC when Gravis has Romney plus 8 and Rassmussen has it plus 6.

Gallup doesn't do state polling and PPP had a better track record in '08 than Rasmussen. The latest PPP poll of NC aligns closely with the Civitas poll showing Romney +1. Gravis has been all over the place this cycle for both candidates and frankly, I don't trust them at this point.

We'll find out in a few more days who was right and who was wrong.

 

[AceRothstein]

My guess would be that the rounding up/down of results/polls could account for the discrepancy. But even if it is correct that two polls were marginally more accurate; it doesn't change Rasmussen's accuracy in 08 and 04 when they were regarded as the most accurate pollsters then too.

See, you're trying to get hung up in trite details; when the original point is that Rasmussen is a solid poll that has been consistently quite accurate.

Well one problem is that you are comparing Rasmussen's national record with PPP's state by state polling record. PPP didn't do national polling in 2008 while both did state polling. State polling is what you need to look at for accuracy as that is how the election is going to be decided.

PPP is far off the majority of polls right now and I don't trust them more than more proven entities like Gallup and Rasmussen. Again, PPP is being paid by off by the Dem machined to artificially create Obama momentum with their hack polls. That is why Obama is up in every poll and even tied in states like NC when Gravis has Romney plus 8 and Rassmussen has it plus 6.

Also, PPP really isn't the one off from the other polls right now any more than Ras is. You should really go through them state by state and you'd see your claim is utterly false.

For example, Ohio - PPP shows O+4, aligning with Time & CNN. Ras shows R+2, nobody else shows R up.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Well one problem is that you are comparing Rasmussen's national record with PPP's state by state polling record. PPP didn't do national polling in 2008 while both did state polling. State polling is what you need to look at for accuracy as that is how the election is going to be decided.

PPP is far off the majority of polls right now and I don't trust them more than more proven entities like Gallup and Rasmussen. Again, PPP is being paid by off by the Dem machined to artificially create Obama momentum with their hack polls. That is why Obama is up in every poll and even tied in states like NC when Gravis has Romney plus 8 and Rassmussen has it plus 6.

Gallup doesn't do state polling and PPP had a better track record in '08 than Rasmussen. The latest PPP poll of NC aligns closely with the Civitas poll showing Romney +1. Gravis has been all over the place this cycle for both candidates and frankly, I don't trust them at this point.

We'll find out in a few more days who was right and who was wrong.

It was easy for PPP to get results more correct when their guy was gonna win anyhow. I don't take your word for it btw. But I'm just saying. PPP is currently way off of Rassmussen and a whole host of other polls and their association with Daily Kos says a lot in that regard.

 

[AceRothstein]

PPP is far off the majority of polls right now and I don't trust them more than more proven entities like Gallup and Rasmussen. Again, PPP is being paid by off by the Dem machined to artificially create Obama momentum with their hack polls. That is why Obama is up in every poll and even tied in states like NC when Gravis has Romney plus 8 and Rassmussen has it plus 6.

Gallup doesn't do state polling and PPP had a better track record in '08 than Rasmussen. The latest PPP poll of NC aligns closely with the Civitas poll showing Romney +1. Gravis has been all over the place this cycle for both candidates and frankly, I don't trust them at this point.

We'll find out in a few more days who was right and who was wrong.

It was easy for PPP to get results more correct when their guy was gonna win anyhow. I don't take your word for it btw. But I'm just saying. PPP is currently way off of Rassmussen and a whole host of other polls and their association with Daily Kos says a lot in that regard.

Go through RCP and look for yourself, your narrative just isn't true. There are just as many polls showing what PPP is showing as there are for Ras. No matter how many times you falsely claim that PPP is skewing the average towards Obama doesn't mean it is going to come true.