Let's Talk Strategy: The Electoral College Edition

Dr.Traveler

Mathematician
Aug 31, 2009
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Hello all,

Here is a map of the Electoral College as of today at Rasmussen: Scroll Down to see it.

Here is an interactive map of the electoral college to play along with: 270towin.com

Rassmussen lists the following:

Safe Obama: WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, IL, NY, ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI (201)
Leans Obama: NV, MI, PA, NH (36)
Toss up: CO, WI, IA, MO, OH, FL, VA (95)
Leans Romney: NC (15)
Safe Romney: AK, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, WV, IN (181)

Assuming that Romney and Obama hold their "leaning" states, which admittedly is a big if:

Paths for Obama:
1. FL(29EC, O48%R46%)

2. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+VA (13EC, O49%R48%)

3. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%) or CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

4. VA (13EC, O49%R48%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%))

5. (WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%))+ CO(9EC, O47%R47%) + IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

6. WI(10EC, O47%R48%) + MO(10EC, O45%R48%)+ (CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

Obama can win with just Florida, or he has 5 2 state combinations with Ohio, or 2 2 state combinations with VA, or 2 3 state combinations with WI or MO and 2 3 state combinations with both WI and MO.

I've ran out of time, I'll look at Romney when I get back.
 
Last edited:
Now for Romney:

Romney has 1 must win state: FL(29EC, O48%R46%). Losing FL means losing the race, so for the purposes of this exercise we will give Romney the 29 EC to determine his possible combinations.

Romney: 225EC with Florida. Paths to victory:

1. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+VA (13EC, O49%R48%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%)+(CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

2.OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+WI(10EC, O47%R48%) + MO(10EC, O45%R48%+CO(9EC, O47%R47%))

3. VA (13EC, O49%R48%)+MO(10EC, O45%R48%)+WI(10EC, O47%R48%)+CO(9EC, O47%R47%)+ IA(6EC, O44%R46%)

This leaves Romney with the following scenarios:

He MUST WIN FL. If he loses OH he MUST WIN all the other current swing states, CO, WI, IA, MO, VA. If he wins OH he must either win VA, giving him a few paths to victory. If he loses VA he needs all the other swing states BUT IA.

That means the Romney campaign, to win, must campaign hard in FL, needs OH, and should fight for VA.
 
OK, so it looks like:

For Obama to win: Defend the "Lean Obama" states, dump everything into Florida or possible Ohio and Virginia. Obama has pretty clear paths to victory if he can win any of those three states. Pull out of IA and CO at this point, as you only need those states if you lose Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. At which point you're screwed anyways.

For Romney: Defend North Carolina, dump all the money you can into Florida, and then try to run a national campaign. Romney is up nationally, and so you might just have to hope for the best in most of these swing states as it is do or die in FL.
 
Great posts.

Thanks. Should have posted this in the election center though.

This just shows how tough things are for Romney. Even Rasmussen is showing his path to victory in the Electoral college is tough.

There are theories around that levels of National support can bring in swing states. If I were Romney, at this point I'd test that. He seems to do ok on the national scene, but struggles in the swing states.
 
Great posts.

Thanks. Should have posted this in the election center though.

This just shows how tough things are for Romney. Even Rasmussen is showing his path to victory in the Electoral college is tough.

There are theories around that levels of National support can bring in swing states. If I were Romney, at this point I'd test that. He seems to do ok on the national scene, but struggles in the swing states.

Perhaps, but time is fast running out for Romney to come up with a new plan, if it’s not too late already.

He should have had a swing state strategy worked out before the end of the primaries.
 
Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight says on CNN tonightsince Obama is now over 50% nationally and in many of the swing states it is almost impossible for Romney to win at this point. The polls are showing an increase for Obama and a decline for Romney. He also says since Obama is polling better than in 2008 in some deep red states, it shows the trend nantionally and in swing states in an upward direction for Obama.
 
Great posts.

Thanks. Should have posted this in the election center though.

This just shows how tough things are for Romney. Even Rasmussen is showing his path to victory in the Electoral college is tough.

There are theories around that levels of National support can bring in swing states. If I were Romney, at this point I'd test that. He seems to do ok on the national scene, but struggles in the swing states.

Perhaps, but time is fast running out for Romney to come up with a new plan, if it’s not too late already.

He should have had a swing state strategy worked out before the end of the primaries.

Romney's putting all his chips on the first debate and the SuperPacs.
 
A comment I heard today -

The election is less than 1000 hours away.

The debates will be interesting but will they be enough to change anyone's mind? I doubt it.

The die is cast and Obama will win.
 
9/26/12 Yesterday it was 330 for Obama. Today it's 337. It has increased for Obama for the past week or more.

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Hello all,

Here is a map of the Electoral College as of today at Rasmussen: Scroll Down to see it.

Here is an interactive map of the electoral college to play along with: 270towin.com

Rassmussen lists the following:

Safe Obama: WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, IL, NY, ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI (201)
Leans Obama: NV, MI, PA, NH (36)
Toss up: CO, WI, IA, MO, OH, FL, VA (95)
Leans Romney: NC (15)
Safe Romney: AK, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, WV, IN (181)

Assuming that Romney and Obama hold their "leaning" states, which admittedly is a big if:

Paths for Obama:
1. FL(29EC, O48%R46%)

2. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+VA (13EC, O49%R48%)

3. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%) or CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

4. VA (13EC, O49%R48%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%))

5. (WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%))+ CO(9EC, O47%R47%) + IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

6. WI(10EC, O47%R48%) + MO(10EC, O45%R48%)+ (CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

Obama can win with just Florida, or he has 5 2 state combinations with Ohio, or 2 2 state combinations with VA, or 2 3 state combinations with WI or MO and 2 3 state combinations with both WI and MO.

I've ran out of time, I'll look at Romney when I get back.

no way for romney to win unless he has ohio.

and your numbers are a bit off because you're using rasmussen rather than the more accurate realclearpolitics.com average or fivethirtyeight.com
 
yep, I think the only real strategy now is if Ryan gets to work saving his congressional seat.

GAWD. it would just be so nice to get that scumbag out of our Congress.
 
.

The only way Romney wins is if the righties are correct about the incorrect polling. Since I don't know shit about how that stuff works, I'll defer to them.

Otherwise it's Obama with 310-320 EV.

.

I have been following the "oversampled" polls for quite a while. They are consistently oversampling Democrats, but I do not think it is a conspiracy.

Almost all of the polls model after the actual results of the previous Presidential election (except Rasmussen who uses an average of 2004 and 2008) In 2008 - there were 7% more self identified Democrats than R's in the country. AND Obama won by approx 7% in 2008.

So the pollsters assume that the country will have these same percentages in 2012.

the problem is the country self identifies at +4 Republican (according to the last poll by Rasmussen) right now.
 
.

The only way Romney wins is if the righties are correct about the incorrect polling. Since I don't know shit about how that stuff works, I'll defer to them.

Otherwise it's Obama with 310-320 EV.

.

I have been following the "oversampled" polls for quite a while. They are consistently oversampling Democrats, but I do not think it is a conspiracy.

Almost all of the polls model after the actual results of the previous Presidential election (except Rasmussen who uses an average of 2004 and 2008) In 2008 - there were 7% more self identified Democrats than R's in the country. AND Obama won by approx 7% in 2008.

So the pollsters assume that the country will have these same percentages in 2012.

the problem is the country self identifies at +4 Republican (according to the last poll by Rasmussen) right now.

Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight factors that into his model. His predictions are quite accurate. He says Romney can't win without Ohio and Obama is anywhere from 6-10 points ahead there.

On Tuesday, The Washington Post published a poll showing Mr. Obama with an eight-point lead in Ohio. Then on Wednesday morning, a poll published by Quinnipiac University, The New York Times and CBS News put Mr. Obama 10 points ahead there.

Mr. Obama is unlikely to win Ohio by an eight- or 10-point margin unless Mr. Romney’s electoral map has completely fallen apart. But the consensus of the data has nevertheless been quite favorable for Mr. Obama in Ohio. In three other polls since the Democratic convention that used industry-standard methodologies and called cellphones, Mr. Obama’s lead in Ohio was between five and seven percentage points.


LINK
 
Rasmussen? The polling wing of the NaziCon party? Holy shit. Why not just use Breitbart, Beck, Fox or World Nut Daily?
 

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