Let's Talk Strategy: The Electoral College Edition

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Dr.Traveler, Sep 18, 2012.

  1. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    In a Non-Euclidean Manifold
    Ratings:
    +1,054
    Hello all,

    Here is a map of the Electoral College as of today at Rasmussen: Scroll Down to see it.

    Here is an interactive map of the electoral college to play along with:

    Rassmussen lists the following:

    Safe Obama: WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, IL, NY, ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI (201)
    Leans Obama: NV, MI, PA, NH (36)
    Toss up: CO, WI, IA, MO, OH, FL, VA (95)
    Leans Romney: NC (15)
    Safe Romney: AK, AZ, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, WV, IN (181)

    Assuming that Romney and Obama hold their "leaning" states, which admittedly is a big if:

    Paths for Obama:
    1. FL(29EC, O48%R46%)

    2. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+VA (13EC, O49%R48%)

    3. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%) or CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

    4. VA (13EC, O49%R48%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%))

    5. (WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%))+ CO(9EC, O47%R47%) + IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

    6. WI(10EC, O47%R48%) + MO(10EC, O45%R48%)+ (CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

    Obama can win with just Florida, or he has 5 2 state combinations with Ohio, or 2 2 state combinations with VA, or 2 3 state combinations with WI or MO and 2 3 state combinations with both WI and MO.

    I've ran out of time, I'll look at Romney when I get back.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2012
  2. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    In a Non-Euclidean Manifold
    Ratings:
    +1,054
    Now for Romney:

    Romney has 1 must win state: FL(29EC, O48%R46%). Losing FL means losing the race, so for the purposes of this exercise we will give Romney the 29 EC to determine his possible combinations.

    Romney: 225EC with Florida. Paths to victory:

    1. OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+VA (13EC, O49%R48%)+(WI(10EC, O47%R48%) or MO(10EC, O45%R48%)+(CO(9EC, O47%R47%) or IA(6EC, O44%R46%))

    2.OH(18EC, O47%R46%)+WI(10EC, O47%R48%) + MO(10EC, O45%R48%+CO(9EC, O47%R47%))

    3. VA (13EC, O49%R48%)+MO(10EC, O45%R48%)+WI(10EC, O47%R48%)+CO(9EC, O47%R47%)+ IA(6EC, O44%R46%)

    This leaves Romney with the following scenarios:

    He MUST WIN FL. If he loses OH he MUST WIN all the other current swing states, CO, WI, IA, MO, VA. If he wins OH he must either win VA, giving him a few paths to victory. If he loses VA he needs all the other swing states BUT IA.

    That means the Romney campaign, to win, must campaign hard in FL, needs OH, and should fight for VA.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  3. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    In a Non-Euclidean Manifold
    Ratings:
    +1,054
    OK, so it looks like:

    For Obama to win: Defend the "Lean Obama" states, dump everything into Florida or possible Ohio and Virginia. Obama has pretty clear paths to victory if he can win any of those three states. Pull out of IA and CO at this point, as you only need those states if you lose Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. At which point you're screwed anyways.

    For Romney: Defend North Carolina, dump all the money you can into Florida, and then try to run a national campaign. Romney is up nationally, and so you might just have to hope for the best in most of these swing states as it is do or die in FL.
     
  4. candycorn
    Offline

    candycorn Alis volat propriis

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2009
    Messages:
    37,569
    Thanks Received:
    4,551
    Trophy Points:
    1,130
    Ratings:
    +12,069
    Great posts.
     
  5. Mac1958
    Offline

    Mac1958 Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2011
    Messages:
    30,249
    Thanks Received:
    6,505
    Trophy Points:
    1,160
    Location:
    Independent Ave.
    Ratings:
    +20,499
    .

    The only way Romney wins is if the righties are correct about the incorrect polling. Since I don't know shit about how that stuff works, I'll defer to them.

    Otherwise it's Obama with 310-320 EV.

    .
     
  6. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    In a Non-Euclidean Manifold
    Ratings:
    +1,054
    Thanks. Should have posted this in the election center though.

    This just shows how tough things are for Romney. Even Rasmussen is showing his path to victory in the Electoral college is tough.

    There are theories around that levels of National support can bring in swing states. If I were Romney, at this point I'd test that. He seems to do ok on the national scene, but struggles in the swing states.
     
  7. C_Clayton_Jones
    Offline

    C_Clayton_Jones Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2011
    Messages:
    41,543
    Thanks Received:
    8,933
    Trophy Points:
    2,030
    Location:
    In a Republic, actually
    Ratings:
    +23,869
    Perhaps, but time is fast running out for Romney to come up with a new plan, if it’s not too late already.

    He should have had a swing state strategy worked out before the end of the primaries.
     
  8. courseofhistory
    Offline

    courseofhistory BANNED

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2012
    Messages:
    1,230
    Thanks Received:
    179
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +181
    Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight says on CNN tonightsince Obama is now over 50% nationally and in many of the swing states it is almost impossible for Romney to win at this point. The polls are showing an increase for Obama and a decline for Romney. He also says since Obama is polling better than in 2008 in some deep red states, it shows the trend nantionally and in swing states in an upward direction for Obama.
     
  9. Sallow
    Offline

    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    56,535
    Thanks Received:
    6,132
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +7,394
    Romney's putting all his chips on the first debate and the SuperPacs.
     
  10. Luddly Neddite
    Offline

    Luddly Neddite Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2011
    Messages:
    53,216
    Thanks Received:
    8,455
    Trophy Points:
    2,040
    Ratings:
    +20,829
    A comment I heard today -

    The election is less than 1000 hours away.

    The debates will be interesting but will they be enough to change anyone's mind? I doubt it.

    The die is cast and Obama will win.
     

Share This Page