Let's See Who The Most Accurate Poll Analyst Is.

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Dick Tuck, Nov 6, 2012.

  1. Dick Tuck
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    I did this last time. I looked at FiveThirtyEight, Pollster, and RealClear. The method is simple. I'll take the absolute difference between the actual and predictive winning number plus the absolute difference of the actual and predicted losing number.

    I may update these numbers if more polls come in today,

    Nate Silver - Obama 50.9 Romney 48.3
    Pollster - O 48.1 R 46.7
    RCP - O 48.8 R 48.1
     
  2. naturegirl
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    naturegirl Silver Member

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    I think you really mean let's see who the luckiest pollster is. lol
     
  3. Dick Tuck
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    Nate (abs(50.9 - 50.3) + abs(48.3 - 48.1)) = .8
    Pollster 2.2 + 1.4 = 3.6
    RCP 1.5 + 0 = 1.5

    Both Nate Silver and Pollster picked all 50 states correctly. RCP didn't do bad, but completely missed Florida, giving it to Romney by 1.5 points.

    Nate Silver completely ruled the prediction game.

    If you want to laugh, check out the final prediction at unskewedpolls.com

    Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

    Here's Dick Morris prediction

    Dickmorris.com

    Find your favorite right wing pundit here: The Ten Worst Predictions Of The 2012 Election | ThinkProgress
     
  4. Dick Tuck
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    No, I was looking for the most accurate poll analyst. Looking at the most accurate pollster is like playing dice.
     
  5. catzmeow
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    catzmeow BANNED

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    Poll analysis has nothing to do with luck, and everything to do with letting your opinions be guided by the numbers, rather than letting your opinions skew the numbers.
     
  6. mamooth
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    mamooth Gold Member Supporting Member

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    You're a bit premature with the ratings. It takes a couple days to count all the provisional ballots, and those break heavily Democratic, so it will bump up the national vote tally for President Obama.
     
  7. Dick Tuck
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    Agree, however I don't see any of the states changing. Dick Morris and Karl Rove still look like morons in their predictions, while Pollster and Nate Silver were 100% correct in the electoral vote counts. I'd also add if the provisional ballots are counted (most states don't bother if they won't make a difference in outcome) increase Obama's lead, Nate would still win.
     

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