Leave Bill Bellicheck alone!!

[DavidS]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFfobQftP5k&feature=fvst]YouTube - Leave Bill Belichick Alone![/ame]

 

[BolshevikHunter]

~BH

sPYgATE! '09'

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

YouTube - Leave Bill Belichick Alone!

Fitzy is great

On a side note, if brady HAD completed that conversion people would be calling Bellecheck a genius.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Here is another classic for everyone

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Blm5-8XoXDg]YouTube - Fitzy Presents: "Let's Go Pats 2008!"[/ame]

 

[Luissa]

YouTube - Leave Bill Belichick Alone!

You notice how no one blamed Tom Brady? I mean You can't blame the messiah?

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

YouTube - Leave Bill Belichick Alone!

You notice how no one blamed Tom Brady? I mean You can't blame the messiah?

NO its all Bush's....i mean Bellecheck's fault

 

[manifold]

All I know is that when Bill made the decision, I was with him 1,000%.

I can't very well criticize him for it now.

 

[Luissa]

he gambled and lost, but that doesn't happen often with him. He made Brady who he is, so really that makes him GOD.
( with Drew Bledsoe''s help )

 

[manifold]

As far as gambles go, I still say it was a pretty good one.

At that point in the game, I would definitely agree that the probability of the Patriot's offense picking up 2 yards on one play was higher than the probability that the Patriot's defense was going to stop the Colt's offense with 2 minutes and one time-out left (even if they had to cover 80 yards).

 

[Paulie]

As far as gambles go, I still say it was a pretty good one.

At that point in the game, I would definitely agree that the probability of the Patriot's offense picking up 2 yards on one play was higher than the probability that the Patriot's defense was going to stop the Colt's offense with 2 minutes and one time-out left (even if they had to cover 80 yards).

I don't even remotely agree. I'd take my chances with the entire field and the lead.

And why does everyone keep assuming 80 yards? What if the kick was let go because it looked like it would bounce into the end zone but it took a Patriots' bounce and got downed inside the 5 or 10?

Going for it was TWO gambles...one was to first MAKE it, and the second was to then stop Peyton with only 30 yards instead of the 80 he was apparently so afraid of if he didn't get it.

The biggest reason I disagree is because you had a 6 point lead. So field goal wasn't an option for Indy, but if you hand Peyton a TD on a silver platter, the almost automatic extra point loses the game.

 

[Oddball]

As far as gambles go, I still say it was a pretty good one.

At that point in the game, I would definitely agree that the probability of the Patriot's offense picking up 2 yards on one play was higher than the probability that the Patriot's defense was going to stop the Colt's offense with 2 minutes and one time-out left (even if they had to cover 80 yards).

So the smart play is to give the Colts a shorter field to work with if you fail to get the 1st down.

Yeah, that makes sense.

 

[manifold]

You guys crack me up with your 20/20 hindsight.

The best line came from Bill himself on WEEI yesterday: If I had known that we weren't going to pick up the first down, then of course I would have punted.

 

[Paulie]

How is it considered hindsight if during live action you're already questioning the decision before it ended up going bad?

All we're saying is the potential risk far outweighed the potential reward. It's got nothing to do with hindsight.

But at least Bill was able to make light of it. Let's hope you're defense was, too.

 

[manifold]

All we're saying is the potential risk far outweighed the potential reward.

How do you figure that?

 

[BolshevikHunter]

As far as gambles go, I still say it was a pretty good one.

At that point in the game, I would definitely agree that the probability of the Patriot's offense picking up 2 yards on one play was higher than the probability that the Patriot's defense was going to stop the Colt's offense with 2 minutes and one time-out left (even if they had to cover 80 yards).

So the smart play is to give the Colts a shorter field to work with if you fail to get the 1st down.

Yeah, that makes sense.

Uh huh. ~BH

 

[Paulie]

All we're saying is the potential risk far outweighed the potential reward.

How do you figure that?

I don't. I forgot Indy only had 1 TO. So the potential reward was game over, which is a little better than giving Peyton 30 yards to score with plenty of time.

Far outweighed, I guess no. But considering that Belichick's mindset was that the defense couldn't stop Peyton no matter how many yards he had to get, the risk was at least equal to or slightly greater than.

Your coach thought your defense would give him a TD no matter what, so he risked that to get the 1st and kneel on it.

It was dumb then, and it's still dumb. Has anyone from the D made a comment yet? Because there could still be risk leftover in that your defense is pissed off at your coach. You'd know that better than me being in the area and hearing all the local gossip.

 

[manifold]

Hey Paulie,

Just for shits & grins, try to quantify the following without doing any of the math first. (wouldn't want you to bias your assumptions to deliver your predetermined answer. )

1. What is the probability that the Patriot's offense would pick up the 2 yards needed for a first down?

2. What is the probability that the Colts would score the go ahead touchdown starting from the NE 30 yard line with two minutes and one time out?

3. What is the probability that the Colts would score the go ahead touchdown starting from their own 30 with two minutes and one time out? (That's assuming a net 40 yard punt which is right about the NFL average).

Answer these quickly and honestly and I'll do the math. I'm wagering that it will support Bill's decision.

Go!

 

[Paulie]

I get your point, but I would think the probability of picking up 2 yards changes when it's a 4th down situation. If you really want to do that math, make sure you factor that in.

 

[manifold]

I get your point, but I would think the probability of picking up 2 yards changes when it's a 4th down situation. If you really want to do that math, make sure you factor that in.

Of course it matters. The fact that the last two times the Colts got the ball they marched the length of the field and scored touchdowns, each in under two minutes IIRC, also matters.

But if you don't want to throw out numbers I will.

1. I'm giving them at least 50/50 odds of picking up the first down.

2. I'd assign about 90% probability that the Colts score from the 30.

3. I'd even be willing to be conservative and only assign 50/50 odds that the Colts score from their own 30.

When you do the math, the combo of 1 & 2 gives the Pats a 55% chance of winning. So unless you think the odds for number 3 are 45% or less, the decision was sound.

 

[Paulie]

I get your point, but I would think the probability of picking up 2 yards changes when it's a 4th down situation. If you really want to do that math, make sure you factor that in.

Of course it matters. The fact that the last two times the Colts got the ball they marched the length of the field and scored touchdowns, each in under two minutes IIRC, also matters.

But if you don't want to throw out numbers I will.

1. I'm giving them at least 50/50 odds of picking up the first down.

2. I'd assign about 90% probability that the Colts score from the 30.

3. I'd even be willing to be conservative and only assign 50/50 odds that the Colts score from their own 30.

When you do the math, the combo of 1 & 2 gives the Pats a 55% chance of winning. So unless you think the odds for number 3 are 45% or less, the decision was sound.

I've seen plenty of decisions I've had to question during and in hindsight, so don't feel so bad.

Be honest and unbiased about your opinion on this...did he have possession at the marker?