Latest Poll Numbers

[Katzndogz]

Iowa is sending a message.

Iowans Send Message to Obama - Yahoo! News

SIOUX CITY, Iowa - President Obama received a less than warm welcome and a warning upon arrival at the airport here on the second stop of his Iowa visit, which was aimed at recapturing some of the magic the state gave his run to the White House in 2008.
Greeting Air Force One as it touched down under sunny skies and sultry heat was a hand-painted banner draped across the top of an airplane hangar that reads, "Obama Welcome to SUX - We Did Build This." "SUX" is the airport code for Sioux City.

obama is going to get rat packed. Just like Jimmy Carter was rat packed.

 

[Liability]

The President's own internal polling demonstrates the falsity of the map.

He is going down.

It is not even a legitimate question anymore.

Are you a campaign advisor? Prove it--link to this internal polling or information on it from an inside, credible source.

I didn't even suggest that I am a campaign advisor.

But we know the moron in chief is going to be more interested in polling results from Carville's group than he would be from Rasmussen.

Now, with that in mind, consider what Carville's group is noting:

Democracy Corps poll shows Romney up 15 among independents
posted at 12:41 pm on August 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Via Suitably Flip and RCP, the latest poll from James Carville’s Democracy Corps should have the sirens wailing over at Team Obama. The topline numbers show Barack Obama with a two-point lead over Mitt Romney, 49/47, down from a 4-point lead in July. The new sample is D+6 at 38/32/28, only a slight change from July’s D+5 at 38/33/25, a margin-of-error change from one poll to the next (which is true of the topline change, from 50/46, as well). However, there are a couple of big red flags in the data that hint at a much different race than what the toplines represent.

First, take a look at the independent vote for the race, which in this format is the fourth column:

That’s a 15-point lead for Romney among independents, 53.4/38.0. Fifteen points. Just to remind everyone, in the D+7 turnout of 2008 in a Democratic wave election, Obama won independents by eight points, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point victory overall. That’s a 23-point shift in this key demographic, way outside the margin of error, and it’s hard to square that with a two-point Obama lead now.

Nor is that the only problem in the demos. Take a look at the gender gap, which Obama won by a combined 14 points in 2008. Romney wins men by 3.5 points now (Obama edged John McCain by one in 2008), and Obama only leads by 6.7 points among women, 51.7/45.0. That’s a combined gender gap of 3.2 points, a drop of ten points in this measure from 2008.

If Obama loses independents outside of the margin of error and only gets a gender gap within the MoE, he’s toast.

-- Democracy Corps poll shows Romney up 15 among independents « Hot Air

@ Obama-dreamers.

 

[Liability]

So much for the repub "convention-bump". 1%

6%.

Try to stay awake.

And the final tally is the one that counts, anyway.

 

[Jackson]

President Obama 0.3

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Governor Romney -0.4

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

President Obama 3.6

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Still the same, nothing has changed.

There you go again. Look at the dates. All but Rassmussen had dates before the Convention.

 

[Bigfoot]

.

Scott Rasmussen is obviously a conservative.

But I have never seen indications that his personal beliefs translate into skewed polling data. I've many times seen his figures favor the Democrat candidate compared to other pollsters like Gallup, NBC (ahem) and others.

I don't see a lot of screaming from lefties when Rasmussen shows a Democrat leading.

.

He is a registered democrat.

 

[Mac1958]

.

Scott Rasmussen is obviously a conservative.

But I have never seen indications that his personal beliefs translate into skewed polling data. I've many times seen his figures favor the Democrat candidate compared to other pollsters like Gallup, NBC (ahem) and others.

I don't see a lot of screaming from lefties when Rasmussen shows a Democrat leading.

.

He is a registered democrat.

Are you sure? Aside from the comments I've seen him make, I'm a little surprised a pollster would belong to a party.

.

 

[BluePhantom]

.

The polls were essentially even going into the RNC, shouldn't Romney be up by at least four or five across the board?

.

Rasmussen and Gallup are both tracking polls. Rasmussen uses a three day rolling average which means polling taken before the end of the RNC are still influencing their numbers. Monday's Rasmussen poll will be the first results which are completely made up of post-RNC polling. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average which means their result are more heavily influenced by pre-RNC polling. It will not be until next Saturday that we see their results that are completely free of pre-RNC polling and by that time the DNC will have started muddying the picture. in other words we will see tomorrow what Romney's full bounce was from the convention according to Rasmussen and we will never know according to Gallup because of the overlap between the RNC and DNC and how they calculate their results.

 

[Bigfoot]

.

Scott Rasmussen is obviously a conservative.

But I have never seen indications that his personal beliefs translate into skewed polling data. I've many times seen his figures favor the Democrat candidate compared to other pollsters like Gallup, NBC (ahem) and others.

I don't see a lot of screaming from lefties when Rasmussen shows a Democrat leading.

.

He is a registered democrat.

Are you sure? Aside from the comments I've seen him make, I'm a little surprised a pollster would belong to a party.

.

Yes, I am certain. I have seen him say so himself. He has been for many years.

 

[EriktheRed]

He is a registered democrat.

Are you sure? Aside from the comments I've seen him make, I'm a little surprised a pollster would belong to a party.

.

Yes, I am certain. I have seen him say so himself. He has been for many years.

"I became a Democrat after Richard Nixon and into the Jimmy Carter era and have been an Independent ever since."

Scott Rasmussen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The entry also talks about articles he did with Fox News Democrat Doug Schoen, which pretty sums it up right there.