Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (December '19: +0.56°C) Weak El Nino Conditions Help Explain Recent

[ReinyDays]

We're not ignoring you ... we just disagree ... you can go through the statistical pathway as often as you like, but we're still going to say it's just a statistical pathway and doesn't explain the physics ...

Why do you think millions of square miles of ocean surface temperatures can be accurately expressed as a single number? ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

We're not ignoring you ... we just disagree ... you can go through the statistical pathway as often as you like, but we're still going to say it's just a statistical pathway and doesn't explain the physics ...

Why do you think millions of square miles of ocean surface temperatures can be accurately expressed as a single number? ...

I never have stated they cover all the oceans, just the relevant section in the Pacific Ocean and off the coast of Australia (ENSO). It is an useful number,, as it covers the large scale changes in the region that so deeply effects the planets weather events. Yet despite the usefulness of the ENSO Index, there is so little understood on why they happen in the first place, oh there have been discussion of the possible causes.

ARGO buoy system is less useful since they cover so little of the ocean surface and below the surface, that it has little real numerical value.

 

[ReinyDays]

"Millions of square miles" is just the equatorial region of the Pacific ... just the area effected by ENSO ...

My point is that ENSO is a dynamic phenomena, and is an error to be corrected for when we discuss climate ... and as a dynamic phenomena, it's extremely difficult to predict, generally we only get a few months warning ... as you stated, we don't know why the ENSO occurs in the first place, so any predictions about it's state decades into the future has to be taken with all due skepticism ... at best, we assume that over the course of 100 years the differences all average out, so we can remove ENSO from consideration ... of course this effects the day-to-day weather and the year-to-year weather ... but our concern in century-to-century weather ... and all these dynamic considerations have to be eliminated ...

 

[edthecynic]

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

Why didn't you bold this??Because you didn't want to admit that Roy Boy says my chart is more accurate than your's

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The MEI Version 2 chart are BASED on the data, it is right here, THEIR LINK!

This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020

=====

Heck you can DOWNLOAD the data

=====

and THIS you have been shown already:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W).

======

already told you what that data is they use to build it with:

.

You should stop now, your stupidity is off the charts, I can't find a bigger one for you.

You keep making a fool of yourself by posting more and more proof that The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) that uses 5 variables is more accurate than your ENSO data alone.
Thank you.

Oh my your stupidity reaches galaxy class level.

Again for the THIRD time I quote:

"A new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present. The MEI.v2 expands upon the original MEI developed by Wolter and Timlin (1993) which was calculated using 6 variables as proxies for ENSO relevant atmosphere and ocean conditions."

my bolding

=====================================

Then we have this from the link you keep ignoring:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

bolding mine

Here are those BI-MONTHLY data you keep ignoring:

MEI.v2 Values
This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020
Current Value: 0.4

LINK

bolding mine

sample of the last 10 years of MEI.v2 Values from the link you keep ignoring:

YEAR DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND
2010 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 -1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2 -1.9
2011 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2
2012 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
2013 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
2015 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
2016 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3
2017 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7
2018 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1
2019 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

See that 0.4 is the CURRENT value?

Those bi-monthly numbers are end result of combining the FIVE VARIABLES into a single number!

Why do you think it is called the ENSO INDEX?

To sum it up, quoting again:

"The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2)"

You finally get it?

there you go again posting data that completely contradicts your lie below using the very data I posted that you first denied and now you act like you provided it.

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It sure doesn't look like it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time for the last 10 years, as you falsely claimed.

 

[Sunsettommy]

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

Why didn't you bold this??Because you didn't want to admit that Roy Boy says my chart is more accurate than your's

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The MEI Version 2 chart are BASED on the data, it is right here, THEIR LINK!

This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020

=====

Heck you can DOWNLOAD the data

=====

and THIS you have been shown already:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W).

======

already told you what that data is they use to build it with:

.

You should stop now, your stupidity is off the charts, I can't find a bigger one for you.

You keep making a fool of yourself by posting more and more proof that The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) that uses 5 variables is more accurate than your ENSO data alone.
Thank you.

Oh my your stupidity reaches galaxy class level.

Again for the THIRD time I quote:

"A new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present. The MEI.v2 expands upon the original MEI developed by Wolter and Timlin (1993) which was calculated using 6 variables as proxies for ENSO relevant atmosphere and ocean conditions."

my bolding

=====================================

Then we have this from the link you keep ignoring:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

bolding mine

Here are those BI-MONTHLY data you keep ignoring:

MEI.v2 Values
This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020
Current Value: 0.4

LINK

bolding mine

sample of the last 10 years of MEI.v2 Values from the link you keep ignoring:

YEAR DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND
2010 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 -1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2 -1.9
2011 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2
2012 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
2013 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
2015 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
2016 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3
2017 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7
2018 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1
2019 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

See that 0.4 is the CURRENT value?

Those bi-monthly numbers are end result of combining the FIVE VARIABLES into a single number!

Why do you think it is called the ENSO INDEX?

To sum it up, quoting again:

"The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2)"

You finally get it?

there you go again posting data that completely contradicts your lie below using the very data I posted that you first denied and now you act like you provided it.

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It sure doesn't look like it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time for the last 10 years, as you falsely claimed.

You keep forgetting your glasses, this is what I said several times now:

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It reached moderate La Nina level a SINGLE month two times since 2012, you finally get it slow thinker? Yes there has been some weak La Nina since 2012, but I was talking about Moderate La Nina levels, which is obvious if you actually think a little.

The key word is MODERATE!

 

[edthecynic]

Why didn't you bold this??Because you didn't want to admit that Roy Boy says my chart is more accurate than your's

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The MEI Version 2 chart are BASED on the data, it is right here, THEIR LINK!

This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020

=====

Heck you can DOWNLOAD the data

=====

and THIS you have been shown already:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W).

======

already told you what that data is they use to build it with:

.

You should stop now, your stupidity is off the charts, I can't find a bigger one for you.

You keep making a fool of yourself by posting more and more proof that The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) that uses 5 variables is more accurate than your ENSO data alone.
Thank you.

Oh my your stupidity reaches galaxy class level.

Again for the THIRD time I quote:

"A new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present. The MEI.v2 expands upon the original MEI developed by Wolter and Timlin (1993) which was calculated using 6 variables as proxies for ENSO relevant atmosphere and ocean conditions."

my bolding

=====================================

Then we have this from the link you keep ignoring:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

bolding mine

Here are those BI-MONTHLY data you keep ignoring:

MEI.v2 Values
This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020
Current Value: 0.4

LINK

bolding mine

sample of the last 10 years of MEI.v2 Values from the link you keep ignoring:

YEAR DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND
2010 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 -1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2 -1.9
2011 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2
2012 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
2013 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
2015 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
2016 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3
2017 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7
2018 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1
2019 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

See that 0.4 is the CURRENT value?

Those bi-monthly numbers are end result of combining the FIVE VARIABLES into a single number!

Why do you think it is called the ENSO INDEX?

To sum it up, quoting again:

"The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2)"

You finally get it?

there you go again posting data that completely contradicts your lie below using the very data I posted that you first denied and now you act like you provided it.

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It sure doesn't look like it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time for the last 10 years, as you falsely claimed.

You keep forgetting your glasses, this is what I said several times now:

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It reached moderate La Nina level a SINGLE month two times since 2012, you finally get it slow thinker? Yes there has been some weak La Nina since 2012, but I was talking about Moderate La Nina levels, which is obvious if you actually think a little.

The key word is MODERATE!

No your key LIE is MODERATE! You said only a moderate La Nina for the last 10 years and the chart clearly shows
a very STRONG La Nina starting in 2010 and lasting to a lesser degree for 4 years.

 

[Sunsettommy]

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

The MEI Version 2 chart are BASED on the data, it is right here, THEIR LINK!

=====

Heck you can DOWNLOAD the data

=====

and THIS you have been shown already:

======

already told you what that data is they use to build it with:

You should stop now, your stupidity is off the charts, I can't find a bigger one for you.

You keep making a fool of yourself by posting more and more proof that The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) that uses 5 variables is more accurate than your ENSO data alone.
Thank you.

Oh my your stupidity reaches galaxy class level.

Again for the THIRD time I quote:

"A new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present. The MEI.v2 expands upon the original MEI developed by Wolter and Timlin (1993) which was calculated using 6 variables as proxies for ENSO relevant atmosphere and ocean conditions."

my bolding

=====================================

Then we have this from the link you keep ignoring:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

bolding mine

Here are those BI-MONTHLY data you keep ignoring:

MEI.v2 Values
This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020
Current Value: 0.4

LINK

bolding mine

sample of the last 10 years of MEI.v2 Values from the link you keep ignoring:

YEAR DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND
2010 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 -1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2 -1.9
2011 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2
2012 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
2013 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
2015 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
2016 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3
2017 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7
2018 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1
2019 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

See that 0.4 is the CURRENT value?

Those bi-monthly numbers are end result of combining the FIVE VARIABLES into a single number!

Why do you think it is called the ENSO INDEX?

To sum it up, quoting again:

"The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2)"

You finally get it?

there you go again posting data that completely contradicts your lie below using the very data I posted that you first denied and now you act like you provided it.

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It sure doesn't look like it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time for the last 10 years, as you falsely claimed.

You keep forgetting your glasses, this is what I said several times now:

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It reached moderate La Nina level a SINGLE month two times since 2012, you finally get it slow thinker? Yes there has been some weak La Nina since 2012, but I was talking about Moderate La Nina levels, which is obvious if you actually think a little.

The key word is MODERATE!

No your key LIE is MODERATE! You said only a moderate La Nina for the last 10 years and the chart clearly shows
a very STRONG La Nina starting in 2010 and lasting to a lesser degree for 4 years.

Once again you are wrong, since the ENSO values show that it stopped being a Moderate La-Nina after January 2012, as shown HERE

It stopped being a La Nina in any level in MAY 2012, which means it didn't even last two years.


2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5

LINK

You had made this very stupid claim:

a very STRONG La Nina starting in 2010 and lasting to a lesser degree for 4 years.

By the way you make clear you are clueless in what is going on here, I gave you the links, you still don't realize how I am making a fool of you.

You need to stop here.........

 

[edthecynic]

You keep making a fool of yourself by posting more and more proof that The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) that uses 5 variables is more accurate than your ENSO data alone.
Thank you.

Oh my your stupidity reaches galaxy class level.

Again for the THIRD time I quote:

"A new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present. The MEI.v2 expands upon the original MEI developed by Wolter and Timlin (1993) which was calculated using 6 variables as proxies for ENSO relevant atmosphere and ocean conditions."

my bolding

=====================================

Then we have this from the link you keep ignoring:

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability.

bolding mine

Here are those BI-MONTHLY data you keep ignoring:

MEI.v2 Values
This page will be updated automatically by the 10th of each month. For the period between 1979 and 2018, the ICOADS-based MEI and MEI.v2 are correlated at 0.95. Last data update: 7 January 2020
Current Value: 0.4

LINK

bolding mine

sample of the last 10 years of MEI.v2 Values from the link you keep ignoring:

YEAR DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND
2010 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 -0.2 -1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2 -1.9
2011 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2
2012 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
2013 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
2015 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
2016 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3
2017 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7
2018 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1
2019 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

See that 0.4 is the CURRENT value?

Those bi-monthly numbers are end result of combining the FIVE VARIABLES into a single number!

Why do you think it is called the ENSO INDEX?

To sum it up, quoting again:

"The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2)"

You finally get it?

there you go again posting data that completely contradicts your lie below using the very data I posted that you first denied and now you act like you provided it.

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It sure doesn't look like it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time for the last 10 years, as you falsely claimed.

You keep forgetting your glasses, this is what I said several times now:

The last time we had a moderate La Nina was nearly 10 years ago, it has been neutral to El-Nino nearly 90% of the time since.

It reached moderate La Nina level a SINGLE month two times since 2012, you finally get it slow thinker? Yes there has been some weak La Nina since 2012, but I was talking about Moderate La Nina levels, which is obvious if you actually think a little.

The key word is MODERATE!

No your key LIE is MODERATE! You said only a moderate La Nina for the last 10 years and the chart clearly shows
a very STRONG La Nina starting in 2010 and lasting to a lesser degree for 4 years.

Once again you are wrong, since the ENSO values show that it stopped being a Moderate La-Nina after January 2012, as shown HERE

It stopped being a La Nina in any level in MAY 2012, which means it didn't even last two years.


2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5

LINK

You had made this very stupid claim:

a very STRONG La Nina starting in 2010 and lasting to a lesser degree for 4 years.

By the way you make clear you are clueless in what is going on here, I gave you the links, you still don't realize how I am making a fool of you.

You need to stop here.........

Again, as you always dishonestly do, your link is NOT to the much more ACCURATE Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) cited in the OP.

 

[ReinyDays]

Please define numerically what a "moderate" La Nino is ... the 2017-18 event is clearly in the middle of the data, thus logically this is a moderate event ... weasel words have no place in debate, especially weasel words that change meaning to suit your bogus claims ... give us a number, just like NOAA does ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

Please define numerically what a "moderate" La Nino is ... the 2017-18 event is clearly in the middle of the data, thus logically this is a moderate event ... weasel words have no place in debate, especially weasel words that change meaning to suit your bogus claims ... give us a number, just like NOAA does ...

Ha ha ha..... neither one of you guys noticed that I DELIBERATELY mixed different sources to see if either one of you noticed that I have been exposing your ignorance. You didn't notice the easy to spot deception, maybe because you never read the links I gave you two.....

I have been using the NOAA ( ERSST,V5) data while cynic boy has been posting the Multivariate ENSO chart that is based on very different data (MEI.V2) LINK

That is why he gets upset, while I continually expose his ignorance (his fault) because he doesn't notice the easy to see deception.

This is from POST 10:

Here is a link showing only a TWO month block (NOAA shows a THREE month block) there it shows that La-Nino reached moderate level for just a single two month block.

LINK

March/April -1.3

I am done here, go ahead and stumble around, but you two have been exposed as continuing your ignorance in face of the sources (you didn't read) that I gave you guys in page one....

 

[ReinyDays]

Oh ... I thought you were just stupid ... turns out you're a liar ... both data sets show a moderate La Nina 2017-18 ... you were done here around post #5 ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

Oh ... I thought you were just stupid ... turns out you're a liar ... both data sets show a moderate La Nina 2017-18 ... you were done here around post #5 ...

No, you are the one who is being silly because you brought in the standard deviation bullshit not mentioned in the article or myself you did it because you want to appear really smart after I showed that it isn't raw data as YOU stated,

RD writes: "The chart you linked to doesn't show any qualitative analysis ... it's raw data ... it's up to the philosophers to decide how we characterize this data ..."



My reply was this which you ignored because I caught your big error which you haven't since explained because you don't have one.

"A new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present. The MEI.v2 expands upon the original MEI developed by Wolter and Timlin (1993) which was calculated using 6 variables as proxies for ENSO relevant atmosphere and ocean conditions."

It is an INDEX!

RD then makes a fool of himself because he fails to make a case just be a snob instead with his irrelevant reply:

"So ... you don't know how to calculate standard deviation ... it's math, maybe that's the problem ... eh? ..."

The problem YOU have is the failure to realize there are no standard deviation in the final index number therefore you simply ran off at the mouth with an irrelevant and stupid argument.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Oh ... I thought you were just stupid ... turns out you're a liar ... both data sets show a moderate La Nina 2017-18 ... you were done here around post #5 ...

No, it was a moderate La-Nina when it was 1.0 for a single month, otherwise it is a weak La-Nina when it is between .5-.9

We are currently getting a Moderate La-Nina.

Neutral is between .49 to -.49

Weak La-Nina is between -.5 to -.99

Moderate La-Nina is between -1.0 to -1.9

Strong La-Nina -2.0 and up.