Labor Force Flows

pinqy

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Jun 8, 2009
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The published statistics for Employment and Unemployment only talk about the NET changes. But it's often useful to look at the GROSS changes as well. Now, for years, the Bureau of Labor statistics has published the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey which looks at Job Openings, Hires, Fires, Quits and other job leaving. it's for the entire month (unlike the snapshot from the Employment Survey) but unfortunately it isn't published until a few months after the month in question (latest release was for October 2010.

But in the last year, you can find on the BLS website and experimental series Current Labor Force Status Flows that looks at the Labor Force changes.

Definitions: Employed: Worked at least 1 hour for pay or 15 hours unpaid in family business/farm in the previous week.

Unemployed: Did not work previous week, but actively looked for work in the previous 4 weeks.

Not in the Labor Force: Did not work or look for work.

Other inflows: people previously not counted who are now part of the Adult Civilian Non-Institutional Population: people who turned 16, got out of prison, the military or a mental institute, and immigrants.

Other outflows: people previously counted who are no longer part of the Population by dying, joing the military, going to prison, being committed or emmigrating.

What I find interesting are the changes from and to Not in the Labor Force. Between November 14th and Dec 18th, 3,640,000 people who hadn't been looking for work started looking and found work, compared to 2,648 Unemployed people who found work in the same time period. Also, 3,700,000 went from working to not in the Labor Force, and 3,097,000 Unemployed stopped looking.
 
Labor Force Participation Rate Improves, more people working...
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62.9%: Labor Force Participation Rate Improves in January; Those Not in Labor Force Declines by 736,000
February 3, 2017 | The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday released its first look at employment since Donald Trump became president, and although that report does not reflect actual Trump policy changes, it does include the period just before Trump became president and was tweeting about jobs saved.
According to BLS, the labor force participation rate improved in January, increasing two-tenths of a point to 62.9 percent, its best showing in four months. BLS said 152,081,000 Americans were employed in January, close to last month’s record 152,111,000. At the same time, the number of Americans not in the labor force went in the right direction, dropping to 94,366,000, which is 736,000 fewer than last month’s record 95,102,000.

participation-jan.jpg

In January, the nation’s civilian noninstitutionalized population, consisting of all people age 16 or older who were not in the military or an institution, reached 254,082,000. Of those, 159,716,000 participated in the labor force by either holding a job or actively seeking one. The 159,716,000 who participated in the labor force equaled 62.9 percent of the 254,082,000 civilian noninstitutionalized population. According to BLS, total nonfarm payroll employment rose 227,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up a tenth of a point to 4.8 percent.

The Labor Department's Employment Situation report is released monthly, and it reflects data gathered in the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. So today's report reflects the situation as it was shortly before Trump was sworn in on Jan. 20. However, the January report undoubtedly reflects anticipation of Trump’s policies, as he was already discussing his intention to repeal Obamacare as well as taking credit for auto companies expanding in the U.S. (Jan. 9 tweets) during the period covered by today’s report.

Baby boomers retiring, Obamacare

See also:

U.S. Gained 5,000 Manufacturing Jobs in January, Lost 10,000 Government Jobs
February 3, 2017 | The United States gained 5,000 jobs in manufacturing in January while losing 10,000 in government, according to numbers released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In December, jobs in government in the United States outnumbered jobs in manufacturing by 9,950,000. In January, the margin dropped to 9,935,000. Over the past year—from January 2016 to January 2017—the United States added 162,000 government jobs, while losing 46,000 manufacturing jobs, according to BLS numbers.

government_and_manufacturing-chart.jpg

In the one month from December 2016 to January 2017, manufacturing jobs rose from 12,336,000 to 12,341,000—for an increase of 5,000. At the same time, government jobs dropped from 22,286,000 to 22,276,000—a decline of 10,000. However, over the past year--from January 2016 to January 2017--the number of people employed in government in the United States climbed from 22,114,000 to 22,276,000—an increase of 162,000.

During the same January-to-January time period, the number of people employed in manufacturing dropped from 12,387,000 to 12,341,000—a decline of 46,000. The number of manufacturing jobs in the United States peaked at 19,533,000 in June 1979. Since then, it has declined by 7,192,000 to the 12,341,000 as of this January, according to the BLS numbers.

U.S. Gained 5,000 Manufacturing Jobs in January, Lost 10,000 Government Jobs
 

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