Knock on Effects

[william the wie]

Taxes will go up for @5% of individual taxpayers under the tax reform bill and those taxpayers can change and some will change residency to get a tax break.

about 85% of taxpayers will get a tax break and 10% pretty much break even as some of the 5% leave the Blue wall taxes in blue states will go up. So, the 10% and 85% that live in the Blue Wall will have to pay more in taxes, giving them and the 5% a reason to change residency. This is a positive feedback loop that will drive at least 5 of the 15 blue wall states into bankruptcy. This bill will set off the largest migration in the nation's history.

 

[DarkFury]

Real estate values in those five are about to go down the toilet. Car values and everything will drop. When real estate values drop they are followed by lumber and durable goods in that market.

 

[william the wie]

Real estate values in those five are about to go down the toilet. Car values and everything will drop. When real estate values drop they are followed by lumber and durable goods in that market.

While correct believe it or don't falling prices on used goods and services have zero direct effect on GDP numbers. Here's the numbers that matter. 16.5 million people moving to low SALT states will result in 3-5 trillion GDP of housing for themselves or those they displace. Needed additional infrastructure in the form of schools, roads, utilities and new hires to do the work for the construction will be nearly as high. The state/county/federal service workers needed for the growth will add as much in consumption. Private industry service workers will such as mom and pop restaurants, barbershops and what not will also hire. My guess and it is a guess is ten trillion spread over 35 states within the first year but much less in the first wave. The mostly blue wall states will raise state and local taxes in January or February and dig a deeper hole after the first wave starts moving out. and possibly get in a court battle with out of state pensioners.

Then comes the battles over corporate SALT, which I am not competent to go into. The big five blue states will most likely be in bankruptcy in the run up to 2020 and under investigation for voter fraud.