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The Art Of Losing Friends
By Charles Krauthammer
Friday, September 24, 2004; Page A25
Of all our allies in the world, which is the only one to have joined the United States in the foxhole in every war in the past 100 years? Not Britain, not Canada, certainly not France. The answer is Australia.
Australia does not share only a community of values with the United States. It understands that its safety rests ultimately on a stable international structure that, in turn, rests not on parchment treaties but on the power and credibility of the United States. Which is why Australia is with us today in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
Australian Prime Minister John Howard has taken great risks and much political heat for his support of America. There is a national election in Australia on Oct. 9, and the race is neck and neck between Howard and Labor Party leader Mark Latham. Latham has pledged to withdraw from Iraq.
This is a critical election not only for Australia but also for the United States. Think of the effect on America, its front-line soldiers and its coalition partners if one of its closest allies turns tail and runs.
The terrorists are well aware of this potential effect. Everyone knows about the train bombings in Madrid that succeeded in bringing down a pro-American government and led to Spain's precipitous withdrawal from Iraq. But few here noticed that this month's car bombing in Jakarta, Indonesia, was designed to have precisely the same effect.
Where was the bomb set off? At the Australian Embassy. When was it set off? Just weeks before the Australian election and just three days before the only televised debate between Howard and Latham.
The terrorists' objective is to intimidate all countries allied with America. Make them bleed and tell them this is the price they pay for being a U.S. ally. The implication is obvious: Abandon America and buy your safety.
That is what the terrorists are saying. Why is the Kerry campaign saying the same thing? "John Kerry's campaign has warned Australians that the Howard Government's support for the US in Iraq has made them a bigger target for international terrorists." So reports the Weekend Australian (Sept. 18).
Americans Overseas for Kerry is the Kerry operation for winning the crucial votes of Americans living abroad (remember the Florida recount?), including more than 100,000 who live in Australia. Its leader was interviewed Sept. 16 by The Australian's Washington correspondent, Roy Eccleston. Asked if she believed the terrorist threat to Australians was now greater because of the support for President Bush, she replied: "I would have to say that," noting that "[t]he most recent attack was on the Australian embassy in Jakarta."
She said this of her country (and of the war that Australia is helping us with in Iraq): "[W]e are endangering the Australians now by this wanton disregard for international law and multilateral channels." Mark Latham could not have said it better. Nor could Jemaah Islamiah, the al Qaeda affiliate that killed nine people in the Jakarta bombing.
This Kerry spokesman, undermining a key ally on the eve of a critical election, is no rogue political operative. She is the head of Americans Overseas for Kerry -- Diana Kerry, sister to John.
She is, of course, merely echoing her brother, who, at a time when allies have shown great political courage in facing down both terrorists and domestic opposition for their assistance to the United States in Iraq, calls these allies the "coalition of the coerced and the bribed."
This snide and reckless put-down more than undermines our best friends abroad. It demonstrates the cynicism of Kerry's promise to broaden our coalition in Iraq. If this is how Kerry repays America's closest allies -- ridiculing the likes of Tony Blair and John Howard -- who does he think is going to step up tomorrow to be America's friend?
The only thing that distinguishes Kerry's Iraq proposals from Bush's is his promise to deploy his unique, near-mystical ability to bring in new allies to fight and pay for the war in Iraq -- to "make Iraq the world's responsibility" and get others to "share the burden," as he said this week at New York University.
Yet even Richard Holbrooke, a top Kerry foreign policy adviser, admits that the president of France is not going to call up President Kerry and say, "How many divisions should I send to Iraq?"
Nor will anyone else. Kerry abuses America's closest friends while courting those, like Germany and France, that have deliberately undermined America before, during and after the war. What lessons are leaders abroad to draw from this when President Kerry asks them -- pretty please in his most mellifluous French -- to put themselves on the line for the United States?
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Allawi Effectiveness Hinges on Credibility
Interim Iraqi leader echoes Bush. Democrats try to fuel skepticism about his message.
By Ronald Brownstein
Times Staff Writer
7:11 PM PDT, September 23, 2004
WASHINGTON -- Interim Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi has emerged as an impassioned witness for the defense in America's presidential election, unambiguously echoing President Bush's key arguments about Iraq and forcing Sen. John F. Kerry into the unusual position of tangling with a foreign head of state during the campaign.
During his visit to the United States this week, highlighted Thursday by his speech to Congress and a news conference with the president, Allawi offered almost exactly the same assessment of Iraq as Bush: conditions are better than they appear, elections for a national assembly are on track and the struggle in his country is a critical front in the global war against terrorism.
If Americans see Allawi as a credible messenger, that could boost Bush -- whose management of the war and the reconstruction of Iraq are under increasing fire from Kerry.
"Allawi's two most important messages are: `It's working, and the Iraqi people are behind it,"' said Steven Kull, director of the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes. "If he can convince the public of those two things, it is going to be very helpful to Bush."
But Kull said it was unclear whether Americans would see Allawi as a reliable source, given the continuing violence in Iraq and his vested interest in portraying events there in the most positive light.
Democrats moved quickly to fuel skepticism, denouncing Allawi's message in unusually pointed terms.
While Kerry was relatively restrained in disputing Allawi's upbeat portrayal, some of his aides suggested that the Iraqi leader was simply doing the bidding of the Bush administration, which helped arrange his appointment in June.
"The last thing you want to be seen as is a puppet of the United States, and you can almost see the hand underneath the shirt today moving the lips," said Joe Lockhart, a senior Kerry adviser.
White House officials denied scripting Allawi's remarks. And the Iraqi leader has said he has no preference in the presidential race. But in interviews this week and his Thursday speech, Allawi forcefully rebutted virtually every major argument Kerry has raised against Bush regarding the war.
"We are succeeding in Iraq," Allawi told Congress. And at their news conference, Bush signaled what could become a recurring campaign theme when he enlisted Allawi as an expert witness in the debate over Iraq. In response to three skeptical questions about the war's progress, Bush in effect told voters that if they didn't believe him, they should listen to Allawi.
"He understands what is going on there," Bush said at one point. "After all, he lives there."
Allawi's visit thrust him into the debate just as Iraq returned to the center of the presidential race.
In a speech Monday, Kerry offered his most comprehensive indictment of Bush's strategy in Iraq, depicting the conflict as a distraction from the war on terrorism that had weakened U.S. security.
On Thursday, Kerry unveiled a new ad that declares: "We need a fresh start to fix the mess in Iraq."
Kerry plans a speech Friday spotlighting his argument that Bush's focus on Iraq caused him to lose sight of other priorities in the struggle against terrorism. He also intends to elaborate on his own plan to combat terrorism
Kerry aides acknowledge that they see this sharpening challenge to Bush on Iraq as their best hope of erasing the president's lead in the race. "We are standing in front of the door and Iraq is the key to opening the door," one top Kerry aide said.
Bush's standing in the polls against Kerry has advanced in lock step with improving public attitudes about the president's decision to invade Iraq. From the spring -- when public support for the war plummeted amid concern over the Abu Ghraib prison scandal and rising U.S. casualties -- the percentage of Americans who said they thought the war was the right thing to do edged upward in polls through early this month.
But there's evidence that the recent violence in Iraq is reversing that current. In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday, 52 percent of registered voters said they thought the war was not worth the cost; 47 percent said they did not think the war would end in "a victory for the United States," while 41 percent predicted it would.
It was precisely those doubts Allawi targeted this week. Like Bush, he insisted that elections for a permanent Iraqi government would take place in January. He said the international media had discounted evidence of progress the country, from a national polio vaccination campaign that had reached "over 90 percent of all Iraqi children" to what he claimed was the re-establishment of security in 15 of 18 provinces.
Refuting a Kerry criticism, , Allawi in his speech Thursday insisted "the training of Iraqi security forces is moving forward briskly and effectively." He repeatedly said Iraq could achieve security without more U.S. troops. He dismissed the possibility of civil war among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds that was raised in a recent National Intelligence Estimate that was partially leaked to the media.
Like Bush, he portrayed Iraq as a central battle in the global struggle against terrorism. "If we, God forbid, fail in Iraq, then you will have Washington, New York, London, Paris, Cairo, everywhere, all burn," he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer.
Perhaps most important, at least in the eyes of some key Bush advisers -- Allawi at every opportunity thanked the American public for the overthrow of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. "That will make people proud of this country and proud of this effort," said one senior GOP strategist familiar with White House planning.
Against that backdrop, Kerry on Thursday took the unusual step for a challenger of directly engaging a friendly foreign leader. During a stop in Ohio, Kerry said that while both Allawi and Bush were trying "to put their best face on the policy ... the fact is that the CIA estimates, the reporting, the ground operations, and the troops all tell a different story."
Kerry aides and other Democratic analysts went further, saying Allawi had painted such a rosy picture of conditions in Iraq that he would have little credibility with Americans exposed daily to reports of car bombings, kidnappings and beheadings. Allawi's assertion that January's vote would occur on schedule, for instance, came just days after U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said "credible elections" are not possible unless security improves.
"If the plan was to use Allawi as the chief surrogate for the Bush campaign this week, it has failed miserably because events on the ground undermine his rhetoric," Lockhart said.
Nile Gardiner, a foreign-policy analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, predicted that the Democratic criticism of Allawi would backfire by making Kerry appear pessimistic and petty. "Attacking Allawi directly could be perceived as in some way undermining what he is trying to achieve in Iraq, and that's a major risk," Gardiner said.
The Democratic National Committee inadvertently revealed some dissonance within party ranks over Allawi's visit. While Kerry and his aides were accusing him of sugarcoating conditions in his country, the DNC issued a statement before Thursday's speech contrasting what it described as Allawi's "honest assessment of the challenging situation on the ground in Iraq," and Bush's "rosy picture of success."
Many analysts caution that Allawi is likely to influence American attitudes about Iraq less by what he says than by whether he can help move his country toward stability. And amid the rising tide of violence, that may be much tougher.
Asked recently what Allawi could do to help Bush in November, one senior European diplomat sympathetic to the war said: "He can keep himself alive until then."
