Kentucky is proving that all politics is local

Statistikhengst

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Nov 21, 2013
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kentucky-county-map.gif




The GOP just took the Senate in November and increased it's margin in the HOR, and yet, in Mitch McConnell's state, where he just won re-election in a landslide, a Democrat is leading in polling for the upcoming KY Gubernatorial this year.

Not only that, the pollster who just released this information, Gravis, is a self-identified REPUBLICAN pollster:

Kentucky Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governor s race

GOVERNOR – KENTUCKY (Gravis)
Jack Conway (D) 40%
James Comer (R) 37%

Margin: Conway +3

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Cathy Bailey (R) 30%

Margin: Conway +13

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Hal Heiner (R) 34%

Margin: Conway +9

Jack Conway (D) 44%
Matt Bevin (R) 36%

Margin: Conway +8

Sample group: 608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0, taken January 5-6, 2015.


A couple of those names should be names that people will recognize: Jack Conway was Rand Paul's opponent in the 2010 KY Senatorial.

And Matt Bevin was Mitch McConnell's challenge from the Tea Party right in the 2014 KY Primaries.

Also:

Hal Heiner is a former Louisville Metro Councilman and a former GOP mayoral candidate for Louisville.

James Comer is the Agriculture Secretary of KY, since 2012.

Cathy Bailey is a businesswoman and former US Ambassador to Latvia.


Just to remind:

McConnell just won in 2014 in KY by a landslide +15.47% margin
Rand Paul won in KY in 2010 by a landslide +11.47% margin

But in 2011, as many were crowing that the GOP would unseat Obama in 2012, Steve Beshear, a Democrat, won the 2011 KY Gubernatorial by a massive +20.43% blowout margin.

The point I am making is already in the title to this thread: all politics is local. And it is foolish to declare one major political party as dead and gone based on just one election. Kentucky proved that point in 2011 and may just prove it again in 2015.

Many said in 2010 that Jack Conway, a very good speaker, has the look and "feel" of a perfect VP candidate. Just a FYI. With Hillary as the presumptive DEM nominee for 2016, this means that Kentucky very likely becomes a battleground state, ala 1992 and 1996.

Caveat: this is just one poll and in no way guarantees Conway a win come election day. But it is quite telling that a Democrat is doing this well in ruby-red Kentucky so quickly after the DEMS received a pasting last November.
 
kentucky-county-map.gif




The GOP just took the Senate in November and increased it's margin in the HOR, and yet, in Mitch McConnell's state, where he just won re-election in a landslide, a Democrat is leading in polling for the upcoming KY Gubernatorial this year.

Not only that, the pollster who just released this information, Gravis, is a self-identified REPUBLICAN pollster:

Kentucky Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governor s race

GOVERNOR – KENTUCKY (Gravis)
Jack Conway (D) 40%

James Comer (R) 37%

Margin: Conway +3

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Cathy Bailey (R) 30%

Margin: Conway +13

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Hal Heiner (R) 34%

Margin: Conway +9

Jack Conway (D) 44%
Matt Bevin (R) 36%

Margin: Conway +8

Sample group: 608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0, taken January 5-6, 2015.


A couple of those names should be names that people will recognize: Jack Conway was Rand Paul's opponent in the 2010 KY Senatorial.

And Matt Bevin was Mitch McConnell's challenge from the Tea Party right in the 2014 KY Primaries.

Also:

Hal Heiner is a former Louisville Metro Councilman and a former GOP mayoral candidate for Louisville.

James Comer is the Agriculture Secretary of KY, since 2012.

Cathy Bailey is a businesswoman and former US Ambassador to Latvia.


Just to remind:

McConnell just won in 2014 in KY by a landslide +15.47% margin
Rand Paul won in KY in 2010 by a landslide +11.47% margin

But in 2011, as many were crowing that the GOP would unseat Obama in 2012, Steve Beshear, a Democrat, won the 2011 KY Gubernatorial by a massive +20.43% blowout margin.

The point I am making is already in the title to this thread: all politics is local. And it is foolish to declare one major political party as dead and gone based on just one election. Kentucky proved that point in 2011 and may just prove it again in 2015.

Many said in 2010 that Jack Conway, a very good speaker, has the look and "feel" of a perfect VP candidate. Just a FYI. With Hillary as the presumptive DEM nominee for 2016, this means that Kentucky very likely becomes a battleground state, ala 1992 and 1996.

Caveat: this is just one poll and in no way guarantees Conway a win come election day. But it is quite telling that a Democrat is doing this well in ruby-red Kentucky so quickly after the DEMS received a pasting last November.

This same pollster had this to say about the Senatorial race.

"If the race for election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitch McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan-Grimes, or Independent Ed Marksberry?” Senator McConnell maintained a seven-point lead over prospective Democratic opponent Allison Lundergan-Grimes. 43% to 36% with 12% reporting they were uncertain."

With a 3 point lead and the undecided at 23% in the current Governors race, it looks like a tossup to me.
 
Not quite so local as the self proclaimed genius Stat thinks. Of course he's wrong again. The "tea party Republican" crushed the liberal in Kentucky:cool:

Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor’s Race in Kentucky

04kentucky-master675.jpg


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.

In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/us/republican-wins-governors-race-in-kentucky.html?_r=0
 
Republicans don't with the Governors race in Kentucky very often. In spite of what the leftist thinks:slap:
 
Not quite so local as the self proclaimed genius Stat thinks. Of course he's wrong again. The "tea party Republican" crushed the liberal in Kentucky:cool:

Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor’s Race in Kentucky

04kentucky-master675.jpg


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.

In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/us/republican-wins-governors-race-in-kentucky.html?_r=0
Aww do you miss Stat?
 
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Not quite so local as the self proclaimed genius Stat thinks. Of course he's wrong again. The "tea party Republican" crushed the liberal in Kentucky:cool:

Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor’s Race in Kentucky

04kentucky-master675.jpg


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.

In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/us/republican-wins-governors-race-in-kentucky.html?_r=0
Please point to any sentence where I ever predicted even once in USMB that Conway was going to win, you stupid, knuckledragging liar. I sure didn't write it in this ten-month old OP, you puss-filled douchebag. In fact, I almost indicated the opposite, you turd ball. You just have to be smart enough to know how to read, which of course you are not, you fucking moronic soulless brainless ballless imbecile who is too stupid to know that a 10 month old thread was never intended to make a prediction. It was just statistics at the time.

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Not quite so local as the self proclaimed genius Stat thinks. Of course he's wrong again. The "tea party Republican" crushed the liberal in Kentucky:cool:

Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor’s Race in Kentucky

04kentucky-master675.jpg


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.

In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/us/republican-wins-governors-race-in-kentucky.html?_r=0
Please point to any sentence where I ever predicted even once in USMB that Conway was going to win, you stupid, knuckledragging liar. I sure didn't write it in this ten-month old OP, you puss-filled douchebag. In fact, I almost indicated the opposite, you turd ball. You just have to be smart enough to know how to read, which of course you are not, you fucking moronic soulless brainless ballless imbecile who is too stupid to know that a 10 month old thread was never intended to make a prediction. It was just statistics at the time.

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:cry:Poor boy, why are liberals so hostile?:itsok: All politics are not local..Get use to it. The tea party is coming for you and your kind. Now go back to your stupidity...Hillary could win 400 electoral votes:uhh:
 
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Not quite so local as the self proclaimed genius Stat thinks. Of course he's wrong again. The "tea party Republican" crushed the liberal in Kentucky:cool:

Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor’s Race in Kentucky

04kentucky-master675.jpg


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.

In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/us/republican-wins-governors-race-in-kentucky.html?_r=0
Please point to any sentence where I ever predicted even once in USMB that Conway was going to win, you stupid, knuckledragging liar. I sure didn't write it in this ten-month old OP, you puss-filled douchebag. In fact, I almost indicated the opposite, you turd ball. You just have to be smart enough to know how to read, which of course you are not, you fucking moronic soulless brainless ballless imbecile who is too stupid to know that a 10 month old thread was never intended to make a prediction. It was just statistics at the time.
Wow, someone is hurting because his candidate, the winner according to all the polls up until yesterday, got smooshed so badly once the actual votes were tallied.

What this means is that all his polls are seriously wrong. All across the country polls messed up.
 
Not quite so local as the self proclaimed genius Stat thinks. Of course he's wrong again. The "tea party Republican" crushed the liberal in Kentucky:cool:

Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor’s Race in Kentucky

04kentucky-master675.jpg


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.

In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/us/republican-wins-governors-race-in-kentucky.html?_r=0
Please point to any sentence where I ever predicted even once in USMB that Conway was going to win, you stupid, knuckledragging liar. I sure didn't write it in this ten-month old OP, you puss-filled douchebag. In fact, I almost indicated the opposite, you turd ball. You just have to be smart enough to know how to read, which of course you are not, you fucking moronic soulless brainless ballless imbecile who is too stupid to know that a 10 month old thread was never intended to make a prediction. It was just statistics at the time.
Wow, someone is hurting because his candidate, the winner according to all the polls up until yesterday, got smooshed so badly once the actual votes were tallied.

What this means is that all his polls are seriously wrong. All across the country polls messed up.


He pushes his bull then cries when he gets crushed.
 
He does have a talent for invective. Wow!

Of course, what it means is that all polls are badly messed up. All polls gave republicans are 7% stronger than polls give them credit for, it means Hillary is in serious serious trouble, which is probably the source of his angst. You give republicans 7% across the board, it means Hillary is under water everywhere but DC
 
He does have a talent for invective. Wow!

Of course, what it means is that all polls are badly messed up. All polls gave republicans are 7% stronger than polls give them credit for, it means Hillary is in serious serious trouble, which is probably the source of his angst. You give republicans 7% across the board, it means Hillary is under water everywhere but DC


Tell that to 400 electoral vote Stat.:lol:
 
He does have a talent for invective. Wow!

Of course, what it means is that all polls are badly messed up. All polls gave republicans are 7% stronger than polls give them credit for, it means Hillary is in serious serious trouble, which is probably the source of his angst. You give republicans 7% across the board, it means Hillary is under water everywhere but DC

First of all, I think it's quite a leap to assume all polls everywhere are off 7% towards the Democrats.

Second, there are plenty of states that Hillary has polled well more than 7% ahead of Republicans.
 
He does have a talent for invective. Wow!

Of course, what it means is that all polls are badly messed up. All polls gave republicans are 7% stronger than polls give them credit for, it means Hillary is in serious serious trouble, which is probably the source of his angst. You give republicans 7% across the board, it means Hillary is under water everywhere but DC

First of all, I think it's quite a leap to assume all polls everywhere are off 7% towards the Democrats.

Second, there are plenty of states that Hillary has polled well more than 7% ahead of Republicans.


The crook Hillary is loosing ground. The polls are off more than 7% :cool:
 
kentucky-county-map.gif




The GOP just took the Senate in November and increased it's margin in the HOR, and yet, in Mitch McConnell's state, where he just won re-election in a landslide, a Democrat is leading in polling for the upcoming KY Gubernatorial this year.

Not only that, the pollster who just released this information, Gravis, is a self-identified REPUBLICAN pollster:

Kentucky Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governor s race

GOVERNOR – KENTUCKY (Gravis)
Jack Conway (D) 40%
James Comer (R) 37%

Margin: Conway +3

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Cathy Bailey (R) 30%

Margin: Conway +13

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Hal Heiner (R) 34%

Margin: Conway +9

Jack Conway (D) 44%
Matt Bevin (R) 36%

Margin: Conway +8

Sample group: 608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0, taken January 5-6, 2015.


A couple of those names should be names that people will recognize: Jack Conway was Rand Paul's opponent in the 2010 KY Senatorial.

And Matt Bevin was Mitch McConnell's challenge from the Tea Party right in the 2014 KY Primaries.

Also:

Hal Heiner is a former Louisville Metro Councilman and a former GOP mayoral candidate for Louisville.

James Comer is the Agriculture Secretary of KY, since 2012.

Cathy Bailey is a businesswoman and former US Ambassador to Latvia.


Just to remind:

McConnell just won in 2014 in KY by a landslide +15.47% margin
Rand Paul won in KY in 2010 by a landslide +11.47% margin

But in 2011, as many were crowing that the GOP would unseat Obama in 2012, Steve Beshear, a Democrat, won the 2011 KY Gubernatorial by a massive +20.43% blowout margin.

The point I am making is already in the title to this thread: all politics is local. And it is foolish to declare one major political party as dead and gone based on just one election. Kentucky proved that point in 2011 and may just prove it again in 2015.

Many said in 2010 that Jack Conway, a very good speaker, has the look and "feel" of a perfect VP candidate. Just a FYI. With Hillary as the presumptive DEM nominee for 2016, this means that Kentucky very likely becomes a battleground state, ala 1992 and 1996.

Caveat: this is just one poll and in no way guarantees Conway a win come election day. But it is quite telling that a Democrat is doing this well in ruby-red Kentucky so quickly after the DEMS received a pasting last November.
So how'd that work out for ya?

:eusa_whistle:
 
Not quite so local as the self proclaimed genius Stat thinks. Of course he's wrong again. The "tea party Republican" crushed the liberal in Kentucky:cool:

Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor’s Race in Kentucky

04kentucky-master675.jpg


LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.

In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/us/republican-wins-governors-race-in-kentucky.html?_r=0
Please point to any sentence where I ever predicted even once in USMB that Conway was going to win, you stupid, knuckledragging liar. I sure didn't write it in this ten-month old OP, you puss-filled douchebag. In fact, I almost indicated the opposite, you turd ball. You just have to be smart enough to know how to read, which of course you are not, you fucking moronic soulless brainless ballless imbecile who is too stupid to know that a 10 month old thread was never intended to make a prediction. It was just statistics at the time.
Wow, someone is hurting because his candidate, the winner according to all the polls up until yesterday, got smooshed so badly once the actual votes were tallied.

What this means is that all his polls are seriously wrong. All across the country polls messed up.
Nope. The polls in Louisiana were absolutely spot-on.

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kentucky-county-map.gif




The GOP just took the Senate in November and increased it's margin in the HOR, and yet, in Mitch McConnell's state, where he just won re-election in a landslide, a Democrat is leading in polling for the upcoming KY Gubernatorial this year.

Not only that, the pollster who just released this information, Gravis, is a self-identified REPUBLICAN pollster:

Kentucky Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governor s race

GOVERNOR – KENTUCKY (Gravis)
Jack Conway (D) 40%

James Comer (R) 37%

Margin: Conway +3

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Cathy Bailey (R) 30%

Margin: Conway +13

Jack Conway (D) 43%
Hal Heiner (R) 34%

Margin: Conway +9

Jack Conway (D) 44%
Matt Bevin (R) 36%

Margin: Conway +8

Sample group: 608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0, taken January 5-6, 2015.


A couple of those names should be names that people will recognize: Jack Conway was Rand Paul's opponent in the 2010 KY Senatorial.

And Matt Bevin was Mitch McConnell's challenge from the Tea Party right in the 2014 KY Primaries.

Also:

Hal Heiner is a former Louisville Metro Councilman and a former GOP mayoral candidate for Louisville.

James Comer is the Agriculture Secretary of KY, since 2012.

Cathy Bailey is a businesswoman and former US Ambassador to Latvia.


Just to remind:

McConnell just won in 2014 in KY by a landslide +15.47% margin
Rand Paul won in KY in 2010 by a landslide +11.47% margin

But in 2011, as many were crowing that the GOP would unseat Obama in 2012, Steve Beshear, a Democrat, won the 2011 KY Gubernatorial by a massive +20.43% blowout margin.

The point I am making is already in the title to this thread: all politics is local. And it is foolish to declare one major political party as dead and gone based on just one election. Kentucky proved that point in 2011 and may just prove it again in 2015.

Many said in 2010 that Jack Conway, a very good speaker, has the look and "feel" of a perfect VP candidate. Just a FYI. With Hillary as the presumptive DEM nominee for 2016, this means that Kentucky very likely becomes a battleground state, ala 1992 and 1996.

Caveat: this is just one poll and in no way guarantees Conway a win come election day. But it is quite telling that a Democrat is doing this well in ruby-red Kentucky so quickly after the DEMS received a pasting last November.
So how'd that work out for ya?

:eusa_whistle:


It was never about me. I wasn't on the ballot.

See how that works?
 
What makes it amazing is that the rural part of the state...

... must have supported Republican Bevin...

... which is usually opposite to the Democratic trend...

... of that demographic.
 

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