Kaesong: South Korea under pressure

[Bleipriester]

The South Korean Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae called North Korea to get to the table for talks about the KIZ (Kaesong Industrial Zone).

"Suspending operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a symbol of reconciliation and cooperation between South and North Korea, doesn't help our nation's future," Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae told reporters Thursday. "Normalization of the complex needs to be done through conversation, and we hope the North Korean government would come out for dialogue."
Seoul Seeks Dialogue Over Kaesong Industrial Complex - WSJ.com

North Korea closed the KIZ for South Koreans after the South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan Jin revealed his intention to introduce a special unit of the U.S. forces into the zone, vociferating about an operation for "rescuing hostages".

 

[waltky]

Granny says she knowed the gubmint wharn't levelin' with us from the get-go...

Pentagon: NKorea could launch nuclear missile
Apr 11,`13 WASHINGTON (AP) -- A U.S. intelligence report concludes that North Korea has advanced its nuclear knowhow to the point that it could arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead, a jarring revelation in the midst of bellicose threats from the unpredictable communist regime.

President Barack Obama urged calm, calling on Pyongyang to end its saber-rattling while sternly warning that he would "take all necessary steps" to protect American citizens. The new American intelligence analysis, disclosed Thursday at a hearing on Capitol Hill, says the Pentagon's intelligence wing has "moderate confidence" that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles but that the weapon was unreliable. Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., read aloud what he said was an unclassified paragraph from a secret Defense Intelligence Agency report that was supplied to some members of Congress. The reading seemed to take Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, by surprise, who said he hadn't seen the report and declined to answer questions about it.

In a statement late Thursday, Pentagon press secretary George Little said: "While I cannot speak to all the details of a report that is classified in its entirety, it would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced" in Lamborn's remarks. `"The United States continues to closely monitor the North Korean nuclear program and calls upon North Korea to honor its international obligations," Little added. Still later Thursday, James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, issued his own statement, saying he concurred with Little. "I would add that the statement read by the member (Lamborn) is not an intelligence community assessment. Moreover, North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile," Clapper said.

The DIA conclusion was confirmed by a senior congressional aide who spoke on condition of anonymity because the Pentagon had not officially released the contents. The aide said the report was produced in March. Since the beginning of March, the Navy has moved two missile defense ships closer to the coast of the Korean peninsula, in part to protect against a potential missile launch aimed at Guam, a U.S. territory in the Pacific. The Pentagon also has announced it will place a more advanced land-based missile defense on Guam, and Hagel said in March that he approved installing 14 additional missile interceptors in Alaska to bolster a portion of the missile defense network that is designed to protect all of U.S. territory.

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North Korea hints it will soon launch a missile
Apr 11,`13 -- Hinting at a missile launch, North Korea delivered a fresh round of war rhetoric with claims it has "powerful striking means" on standby. Seoul and Washington speculated that it is preparing to test-fire a missile designed to be capable of reaching the U.S. territory of Guam in the Pacific Ocean.

The latest rhetoric came as new U.S. intelligence was revealed showing North Korea is now probably capable of arming a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead, though South Korea's Defense Ministry said Friday it does not believe that Pyongyang has mastered that technology. On the streets of Pyongyang, North Koreans were in party mode as they celebrated a slew of key anniversaries, leading up to Monday's commemoration of the 101st birthday of the country's late founder, Kim Il Sung. But while there was calm in Pyongyang, there was condemnation in London, where foreign ministers from the Group of Eight nations slammed North Korea on Thursday for "aggressive rhetoric" that they warned would only further isolate the impoverished, tightly controlled nation.

North Korea's provocations, including a long-range rocket launch in December and an underground nuclear test in February, "seriously undermine regional stability, jeopardize the prospects for lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula and threaten international peace and security," the ministers said in a statement. In the capital of neighboring South Korea, the country's point person on relations with the North, Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, urged Pyongyang to engage in dialogue and reverse its decision to pull workers from a joint industrial park just north of their shared border, a move that has brought factories there to a standstill. "We strongly urge North Korea not to exacerbate the crisis on the Korean Peninsula," Ryoo said.

North Korea probably has advanced its nuclear knowhow to the point where it could arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead, but the weapon wouldn't be very reliable, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has concluded. The DIA assessment was revealed Thursday at a public hearing in Washington.

However, South Korea believes that Pyongyang does not yet have a nuclear device small enough to put on a missile, Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said, in response to a question about the DIA assessment. "Our military's assessment is that North Korea has not yet miniaturized" a nuclear device, Kim said. President Barack Obama warned the unpredictable communist regime that his administration would "take all necessary steps" to protect American citizens.

In his first public comments since North Korea escalated its rhetoric, Obama urged the north to end its nuclear threats, saying it was time for the isolated nation "to end the belligerent approach they have taken and to try to lower temperatures." "Nobody wants to see a conflict on the Korean Peninsula," Obama added, speaking from the Oval Office alongside United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

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[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - John Kerry gettin' tough with lil Kim, waggin' his finger at him...

U.S. tells N.Korea new missile launch would be "huge mistake"
12 Apr.`13 - U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea on Friday it would be a "huge mistake" to test launch a medium-range missile and said the United States would never accept the reclusive country as a nuclear power.

Addressing reporters after talks with South Korea's president and leaders of the 28,000-strong U.S. military contingent in the country, Kerry also said it was up to China, North Korea's sole major ally, to "put some teeth" into efforts to press Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Kerry, like other U.S. officials, played down an assessment from the Pentagon's intelligence agency that the North already had a nuclear missile capacity. The United States, he said, wanted to resume talks about North Korea's earlier pledges to halt its nuclear programme.

But he also stressed that Washington would defend its allies in the region if necessary and pointedly said that Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, "needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of a conflict would be". North Korea has repeatedly said it will not abandon nuclear weapons which it said on Friday were its "treasured" guarantor of security.

Kerry's visit coincided with preparations for Monday's anniversary of North Korean state founder Kim Il-Sung's birth date, a possible pretext for a show of strength, with speculation focusing on a possible new missile test launch. Kerry, who flies to China on Saturday and to Japan on Sunday, said that if North Korea's 30-year-old leader went ahead with the launch, "he will be choosing, wilfully, to ignore the entire international community". "I would say ahead of time that it is a huge mistake for him to choose to do that because it will further isolate his country and further isolate his people, who frankly are desperate for food, not missile launches."

SHRILL RHETORIC

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In Seoul, Kerry Warns North Korea Against Missile Test
April 12, 2013 — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry delivered a stark warning to North Korea on Friday not to test-fire a mid-range missile, while tamping down anxiety caused by a new U.S. intelligence report suggesting significant progress in the communist regime's nuclear weapons program.

Kicking off four days of talks in an East Asia beset by increasing North Korean threats, Kerry told reporters in Seoul that Pyongyang and its enigmatic young leader would only increase their isolation if they launched the missile that American officials believe has a range of some 2,500 miles — or enough to reach the U.S. territory of Guam. "If Kim Jong Un decides to launch a missile, whether it's across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community," Kerry told reporters. "And it will be a provocation and unwanted act that will raise people's temperatures."

If the trajectory of the test missile suggests that it could be a threat to either the U.S. or allies, the military would move to shoot it down from one of nine warships armed with sophisticated ballistic missile defense systems in the Pacific, including two that were moved closer to the Korean peninsula, U.S. officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss military plans. Kerry said the test would be a "huge mistake" for Kim. "It will further isolate his country and further isolate his people who are desperate for food and not missile launches," he warned. "They are desperate for opportunity and not for a leader to flex his muscles."

Kerry's diplomatic tour, while planned long in advance, is unusual in that it brings him directly to a region of escalated tensions and precisely at a time when North Korea is threatening action. The North often times its military and nuclear tests to generate maximum attention, and Kerry's presence on the peninsula alone risked spurring Pyongyang into another provocation. Another key date is the 101st birthday of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung, on April 15.

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[Bleipriester]

Update:
North Korea rejected a South Korean ultimatum to "normalize" the situation in the Kaesong Industrial Zone. South Korea threatened the north with "grave measures" yesterday in case North Korea let the ultimatum expire.

 

[waltky]

N/S Korea joint factory park shut down...

South Korea to pay out $400M in compensation for Kaesong shutdown
May 27, 2016 - The factory park was the last inter-Korea channel of exchange with North Korea.

The decision to terminate the Kaesong Industrial Complex is coming with a hefty price tag for Seoul. South Korean businesses forced to shut down operations at the jointly operated factory park in North Korea are to receive about $440 million in compensation. A Seoul task force on Kaesong said the measure is designed to support companies and South Korean expatriates who have lost income from the shutdown, local newspaper JoongAng Ilbo reported.

In February, Seoul decided to suspend operations at Kaesong, the last inter-Korea channel of exchange with Pyongyang, in response to North Korea's fourth nuclear test and long-range rocket launch. Around the time of the shutdown, Seoul estimated about $852 million of South Korean investments into North Korea-based factories and infrastructure had been frozen. The factory park was profitable. According to Seoul data, more than $515 million worth of textiles, electronic parts and other goods were produced in 2015. Of the 303 South Korean businesses that operated in Kaesong or were affected by the shutdown, 261 reported a total of $796 million in damages.

But the government said after checking with accounting firms the actual damage came to about $655 million. The $440 million goes toward compensating loss incurred from frozen assets or investments left behind in the North. Other compensation measures are still under investigation, the unification ministry stated Friday. Businesses are also eligible for compensation covering the "physical and psychological damage" to livelihoods incurred due to the sudden termination of the factories. That payment is to be made over the course of six months, according to Seoul. Business owners have said they were "shocked" or "enraged" in the aftermath of the shutdown.

South Korea to pay out $400M in compensation for Kaesong shutdown

 

[waltky]

Mebbe Kim sendin' a message he's not likely to attack So. Korea...

North Korea: Kaesong factories are up and running
Oct. 6, 2017 -- North Korea acknowledged restarting operations in Kaesong, the former jointly operated factory park where South Korean firms employed North Korean laborers to produce consumer products.

Pyongyang's propaganda outlet Uriminzokkiri stated Friday the factories at Kaesong are "running with more vigor" than when South Korean managers oversaw production at the plants, South Korean television network JTBC reported. "It is of no matter to anyone, what takes place in an industrial zone where the sovereign power of the [North Korean] republic is being exercised," North Korea stated. "The factories are running with more vigor." The statement comes days after Radio Free Asia reported North Korea may have resumed production at garment factories, without consulting South Korea counterparts.

A gateway that leads to the Kaesong Industrial Complex is seen near Dorasan station in South Korea. North Korea froze all South Korea assets at the factory park in 2016.​

Sources had told RFA the 19 factories are producing clothing for export to China or for domestic consumption. An official at Seoul's unification ministry said that if North Korea has resumed operations at the factory park, the action would constitute an "infringement of South Korean property rights," local news service Newsis reported. "North Korea must not infringe on our property rights at [Kaesong] Industrial Complex," the unification ministry official said.

North Korea froze all South Korea assets in retaliation for a Seoul decision to shut down the complex in February 2016, and banned South Koreans from removing vehicles at the park. About 100 vehicles, most likely trucks, had disappeared from the site, according to satellite imagery taken in August. "All acts that infringe on the property rights of South Korean businesses must be stopped," the unification ministry official said.

North Korea: Kaesong factories are up and running

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'Shrewd' Kim Jong Un daring U.S. to take military action, analysts say
Oct. 5, 2017 -- North Korea's provocations are not being taken lightly in Washington, where policymakers are weighing military options despite the potentially catastrophic consequences.

Speaking at a public roundtable at The Korea Society in New York on Thursday, Bruce Klingner, a former CIA deputy division chief for Korea, said he's hearing "military options are increasing, not decreasing" in the Trump administration. "The probability of a military option is not zero," Klingner said, adding there is talk "inside government" of the "five options to solve North Korea in 18 months." While not elaborating on those options, the analyst said he is concerned North Korea could conduct a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could fly farther than the projectile launched July 4. "I'm pretty sure they're going to do an ICBM test," Klingner said. An unprecedented provocation could set the wheels in motion at the Pentagon to take more forceful measures.

Analysts in South Korea and the United States have also said North Korea's threat to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean is credible because North Korea has frequently followed through with verbal provocations. But Klingner said a "nuclear airburst" is "over the top" and unlikely. Predicting North Korea's next move has always been somewhat of a guessing game, and leader Kim Jong Un does not make life easier for policymakers or intelligence analysts. Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst, described Kim as "very calculating, very shrewd," as he plays his cards against the United States. "He is not irrational. Kim wants to survive," Terry said. "His goal is to live a long time."

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, accompanied by his wife, Ri Sol-Ju, hosted a lavish gala at the People's Theatre in Pyongyang on Sept. 10. North Korea's provocations are increasing the probability of U.S. military options, a former CIA analyst said Thursday.​

The analyst said Kim's cleverness showed in his decision to fly missiles over Japan, following sinister threats to lay siege to Guam. "The decision to fly a missile over Japan was very carefully calibrated," Terry said. "It's not too much so that it compels the [United States] to act but it's still a little bit more." North Korea's provocations have died down but expectations are rising that more tests could take place when Pyongyang celebrates a Workers' Party anniversary in October. North Korea has not taken additional military measures since U.S. President Donald Trump condemned Kim and called the North Korean leader a "rocket man on a suicide mission." Klingner said Trump's remarks before the United Nations General Assembly, though "unhelpful," was a response to North Korea aggression and not a pledge to initiate an attack. "I think if you get beyond Rocket Man and 'we will destroy North Korea,' I think the context of the vow, the pledge or the threat, was in the context of responding to a North Korean attack," Klingner said.

Weeks before the U.N. convened in New York, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test and launched its second missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido. Terry said Trump's remarks, including his statement to "totally destroy North Korea," pose a long-term problem for U.S. policymakers. "When you are making these threats, at some point I do think we are boxing ourselves in," Terry said. "Because what if North Koreans continue [provocations], and they probably will." "Then are we really going to act, because we said we will? Because if we don't we lose credibility. We are forced into a position where we have to act," she added. "It's unhelpful. We look like a paper tiger."

Terry also ruled out recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, a demand Pyongyang has been seeking in informal talks with former U.S. officials, including Terry and Klingner, who both met North Korean diplomats in Stockholm in July. Once recognized as a nuclear weapons state, North Korea could "resort to nuclear blackmail, kick out U.S. forces on the peninsula, and bank on the United States not to come to the aid of Seoul," Terry said. "Why risk San Francisco for Seoul?"

'Shrewd' Kim Jong Un daring U.S. to take military action, analysts say