John Zogby: Obama hasn’t closed the deal yet

Discussion in 'Congress' started by The Paperboy, Oct 12, 2008.

  1. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    John Zogby, the man behind the Zogby polling organization, which is partnered with Reuters and C-SPAN, made some interesting comments a day ago concerning the Presidential race. In the Zogby tracking polls, Obama leads McCain but hasn’t been able to pull out of the margin of error.

    Story here
     
  2. bigdaddygtr
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    bigdaddygtr Senior Member

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    You keep trying to pull out anything you can, I commend your effort, even though its completely and utterly futile
     
  3. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    And I commend you in advance for the good manners you and other Obama supporters will display when Obama loses.
     
  4. Red Dawn
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    Red Dawn Senior Member

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    Oops...

     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2008
  5. bigdaddygtr
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    bigdaddygtr Senior Member

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    :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
     
  6. Larkinn
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    Larkinn Senior Member

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    What exactly compels you to make the huge leap from "he can't put it away" to "he will lose"?

    Considering the only way he could put it away now would be if McCain was found with a live boy or a dead girl, I don't think its a real big sign that he hasn't put it away.
     
  7. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    My personal opinion is Obama's support from independents and Hillary supporters is very soft and it wouldn't take much for them to jump ship.

    Also I suspect the polls are off by about 5 points due to the "Bradely Effect".
     
  8. Larkinn
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    Larkinn Senior Member

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    Their support is soft, but their support of McCain is almost nonexistant. Hell McCain can barely get the support of anyone. I don't know anyone on this board who is voting for McCain as anything other than an anti-Obama tactic.


    Wouldn't that mean the Bradley Effect would have shown up in the primaries even stronger than it would in the general? Care to point to evidence of such?
     
  9. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    I think you're being partisan. The independents have had major "mood swings" in just the past 6 weeks.

    I just spent the weekend on Cape Cod, a bastion of the Liberal elite, and I saw almost as many McCain signs as Obama signs which really, really surprised me.

    New Hampshire is just one example without even doing any research. But many of the polls had Obama winning by much larger margins than the actual vote and in some cases losing when he was shown to be winning. RCP has all the polls/results.

    But who knows, maybe there will be no Bradley effect or a reverse Bradly effect.
     
  10. Larkinn
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    Larkinn Senior Member

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    Umm, not really. McCain has only been up once, during and right after the RNC, which was completely predictable.

    And?

    See, a Bradley effect would be consistent in each state, depending on how many whites there were in the state.

    For an explanation of why there was no effect see here

    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect

    However one money quote is this:

    So Obama overperformed the polls. Doesn't seem like the Bradley effect exists here.
     

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