John McCain is only 43 electoral votes away from the presidency

[cristal]

trounced? wow...you really are deluded.....

I'm not sure which "poll" you're looking at and personally I don't put much weight into them anyway... I've been a registered voters since 1989 and have never once been contacted for one of these polls so I'm not even sure who they are talking to...

However, here are some polls you might or might not like

2008 Polls - Presidential Election, Latest Political - Democratic Candidate Poll - Tracking Current

9/13/08

Candidate Newsweek WA NJ NV
Pollster Newsweek Rass Marist Rass
Date 9/10-11 9/10 9/5-8 9/11
Barack Obama 46% 49% 47% 46%
John McCain 46% 47% 40% 49%

see that? the only poll McCain leads on is Rassmusean... which I've been watching and it seems to me is a right leaning organization... given they advertise for McCain on that site and all...

oh a comeupence is coming.... it'll be McCain's and I predict it'll start showing next week after a week of lies, fake outrage and downright stupid mistakes.....

Historically, the Democratic candidate going into the convention usually goes in with a 14-20% bounce and retain most of it, post-convention. Obama's "bounce" was 3% leading into the convention and he maximized that to 5%. Then it happened! The big decline. And it has not stopped.

So what part of that shows that John McCain is not doing better than your candidate?

Is this truth too much for you? Well, learn to accept it.

 

[cristal]

According to RCP this is the fourth time McCain has taken a lead...he's lost it the previous three time. If you want to call it now go ahead but during the debates McCain is going to have to explain how Bush economics, which has done zero for the economy and less for Ohio and other battle ground states, will now, suddenly, work under McCain. I'm sure you'll buy it but will those not so ideologically pure buy it? That's the real question and one that should scare the shit out of you. Best enjoy it while you can because it won't be so enjoyable when you have to take your pig and lipstick and go home...

It is the first time that McCain has taken the lead, since he has accepted the nomination.

PS. Bush is NOT running for re-election.

 

[Isolde]

According to RCP this is the fourth time McCain has taken a lead...he's lost it the previous three time. If you want to call it now go ahead but during the debates McCain is going to have to explain how Bush economics, which has done zero for the economy and less for Ohio and other battle ground states, will now, suddenly, work under McCain. I'm sure you'll buy it but will those not so ideologically pure buy it? That's the real question and one that should scare the shit out of you. Best enjoy it while you can because it won't be so enjoyable when you have to take your pig and lipstick and go home...

A large part of stagnation can be blamed on the Democratic controlled houses. What's their approval rating these days... 20-30%?

Hey, I am in no way defending the Republican controlled houses prior to the Dem takeover, they squandered their opportunity to make hay and they blew it. As far as I see, they have a huge credibility gap to overcome as well.

 

[cristal]

If you have a keen understanding of statistics, the polls can be very helpful. Both Parties have a people with a keen understanding of statistics, so they are very useful in election strategies.

Here are the realities of this election:

McCain has to get a big increase (>5%) in turn out in white voters AND he has do do as well among white voters as Bush did in 2004. There will likely be an increase in white voters, but it's doubtful that McCAin will do as well among white voters as Bush did.

Obama has to prevent the above from happening while at the same time getting out an extremely strong turn out among African voters. This is very likely.

McCain's best hope is to turn out large numbers of white voters who'll vote against Obama based on race. This will most likely be offset by young white voters and people who are disillusioned by the Republicans.

If the changes in the White vote are a wash and Obama succeeds in getting out the Black vote, The Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana (all of which have a Black population between 25-36%) will all go to Obama. That will just be the start of an Obama landslide.

I do believe that no matter what, Texas, Arizona and Alaska will go to McCain. But not much more.

Demographically, an even smaller change in the voting pattern of womwn voters (who are the majority) towards the Dems will cause an Obama victory. The male vote will likely not change much.

There are about 6-7 likely demographic changes from the 2004 election all of which point to either and Obama victory or landslide. There is only one, which is fairly unlikely, that would cause a McCain victory.

I see that you are still continuing with Polls lessons 101. (Sigh).

I prefer a much more simplifed version. Like McCain leading with 48% to Obama 45%.

I think that the voters will also prefer this version.

 

[HoleInTheVoid]

A large part of stagnation can be blamed on the Democratic controlled houses. What's their approval rating these days... 20-30%?

Divide by 2 and you're getting close.

Hey, I am in no way defending the Republican controlled houses prior to the Dem takeover, they squandered their opportunity to make hay and they blew it. As far as I see, they have a huge credibility gap to overcome as well.

Indeed.

 

[Richard-H]

I see that you are still continuing with Polls lessons 101. (Sigh).

I prefer a much more simplifed version. Like McCain leading with 48% to Obama 45%.

I think that the voters will also prefer this version.

Even if the demographics of these polls are correct, IT"S ONLY THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER! A THREE POINT LEAD MEANS NOTHING AT THIS POINT!

A 12 point lead wouldn't mean much. You assumption that a 3 point lead in some obscure poll in the middle of September is indicative (sorry for using big words), of a sure MCCain victory is plain silly.

Please ignore any further discussion of polling & demographics that I may post, it will be meant for the other people on this message thread. Clearly, this topic is way over your head.

BTW,
If you put lipstick on a pitbull, all you'll still have is a dumb nasty bitch.

 

[PeterS]

A large part of stagnation can be blamed on the Democratic controlled houses. What's their approval rating these days... 20-30%?

Hey, I am in no way defending the Republican controlled houses prior to the Dem takeover, they squandered their opportunity to make hay and they blew it. As far as I see, they have a huge credibility gap to overcome as well.

I don't even think people have a clue what is going on in the House and the Dems are slated to pick up even more seats. McCain needed a star and Palin gave it to him. But will it last? Palin is the VP candidate not the presidential candidate and he can only hide behind her skirts so often. McCain has the same domestic policy as Bush. McCain has the same foreign policy as Bush. Palin has already collapsed his little house of cards on earmarks so the change McCain boasted of is empty rhetoric leaving McCain = Bush and Bush has a 30% approval rating.

Maybe McCain can win but he is so exposed as being "the same" that I really doubt it. If cons are excited now then I would suggest they enjoy it while they can but a pig is a pig even if it wares lipstick...

 

[HoleInTheVoid]

Even if the demographics of these polls are correct, IT"S ONLY THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER! A THREE POINT LEAD MEANS NOTHING AT THIS POINT!

A 12 point lead wouldn't mean much. You assumption that a 3 point lead in some obscure poll in the middle of September is indicative (sorry for using big words), of a sure MCCain victory is plain silly.

Please ignore any further discussion of polling & demographics that I may post, it will be meant for the other people on this message thread. Clearly, this topic is way over your head.

BTW,
If you put lipstick on a pitbull, all you'll still have is a dumb nasty bitch.

Wasn't Little O leading by double-digits just a couple of weeks ago before he went to Europe, Russia invaded Georgia and Palin was picked?

I'm new here, what were the Obama supporters saying back then?

 

[cristal]

Even if the demographics of these polls are correct, IT"S ONLY THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER! A THREE POINT LEAD MEANS NOTHING AT THIS POINT!

A Clearly, this topic is way over your head.:

No it is not. It is pure bullshit, which I have no time for.

 

[Isolde]

I don't even think people have a clue what is going on in the House and the Dems are slated to pick up even more seats. McCain needed a star and Palin gave it to him. But will it last? Palin is the VP candidate not the presidential candidate and he can only hide behind her skirts so often. McCain has the same domestic policy as Bush. McCain has the same foreign policy as Bush. Palin has already collapsed his little house of cards on earmarks so the change McCain boasted of is empty rhetoric leaving McCain = Bush and Bush has a 30% approval rating.

Maybe McCain can win but he is so exposed as being "the same" that I really doubt it. If cons are excited now then I would suggest they enjoy it while they can but a pig is a pig even if it wares lipstick...

It's funny you admit that Palin is the VP and not the Presidential candidate, someone ought to inform Barry of that fact. He really should be taking on McCain and earmarks.... but wait that won't work because McCain is anti-earmark. So in his quest to discredit her, he challenges her on earmarks.

All this will do is draw attention to his own embarassing record on earmark spending. His advisors should be fired.

 

[PeterS]

Wasn't Little O leading by double-digits just a couple of weeks ago before he went to Europe, Russia invaded Georgia and Palin was picked?

I'm new here, what were the Obama supporters saying back then?

I'm new here too but, no, Obama has never had a 10 point lead. I think the largest it ever was was 7% but the only day it matters is Nov 4th...

 

[cristal]

Wasn't Little O leading by double-digits just a couple of weeks ago before he went to Europe, Russia invaded Georgia and Palin was picked?

I'm new here, what were the Obama supporters saying back then?

Nothing. They were drinking champagne. They are now pissed off, because he is trailing in the polls.

Well this is just the beginning. They ain't seen nuthin' yet.

 

[Richard-H]

Nothing. They were drinking champagne. They are now pissed off, because he is trailing in the polls.

Well this is just the beginning. They ain't seen nuthin' yet.

Who's pissed off? I'm more amused by the desparation of the Republican's gross exageration of the importance of a one point lead in the polls more than a month and a half before the election.

Enjoy it because it the closest McCains going to get to winning!

 

[Dr Grump]

How anybody can be making predicitons this early in the election cycle is beyond me. The debates will sort out the wheat from the chaff...and I'm betting Palin is gonna get zapped - big time...

 

[cristal]

How anybody can be making predicitons this early in the election cycle is beyond me. The debates will sort out the wheat from the chaff...and I'm betting Palin is gonna get zapped - big time...

Okie, dokie. I believe that Obama will make history - but as the 1st black candidate who wins the nomination. But not as President.

And the polls (albeit a little early), is beginning to tell that story.

 

[DiamondDave]

you have a lot of nerve saying anything about the way Obama speaks if you're planning on casting your ballot for someone who doesn't know what the Bush Doctrine is....

just sayin'

Well... considering the 'doctrine' is not the same as it was in 2002, etc... dicklick's pointed question was not a clear one

And before I see one more stupid post bashing what liberals consider the 'Bush doctrine', maybe they need to look at the doctrine of Wilson, Roosevelt, and their all powerful hero Kennedy in terms of dealing with foreign threats that had not attacked us directly first