Jeez maybe it really is the Sun

[westwall]

Here is a peer reviewed paper that shows UV radiation from the Sun is the most likely cause of the recorded ocean temperature rise.

"Solar irradiance is the main external driver of the Earth's climate. Whereas the total solar irradiance is the main source of energy input into the climate system, solar UV irradiance exerts control over chemical and physical processes in the Earth's upper atmosphere. The time series of accurate irradiance measurements are, however, relatively short and limit the assessment of the solar contribution to the climate change. Here we reconstruct solar total and spectral irradiance in the range 115–160,000 nm since 1610. The evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic flux, which is a central input to the model, is appraised from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. The model predicts an increase of 1.25 W/m2, or about 0.09%, in the 11-year averaged solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum. Also, irradiance in individual spectral intervals has generally increased during the past four centuries, the magnitude of the trend being higher toward shorter wavelengths. In particular, the 11-year averaged Ly-α irradiance has increased by almost 50%. An exception is the spectral interval between about 1500 and 2500 nm, where irradiance has slightly decreased (by about 0.02%)."

They also report accurately that the UV irradiance is able to penetrate a few meters deep into the oceans to affect heating whereas the long wave radiation of the greenhouse gas effect is lost within the first few microns due to the phase change evaporation with no net heating.

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

 

[Big Fitz]

...and from our "NOOOOOOO REALLY???" file.

 

[mdn2000]

I am sure Old Crock, Chris, and Jiggs got a link that proves the sun has no effect on our weather. Its most likely called "Peak Sun theory".

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

Various observations suggest that the Earth’s climate has always being changing. Both internal sources and external drivers contribute to this variability. The most recent strong increase of the global surface temperature appears to be rather unusual, however [Solomon et al., 2007]. Although human activity has being widely recognised to be a major contributor, the relative roles of different drivers are still not well understood and need more accurate evaluations.

The solar radiative output is the main external driver of the Earth’s coupled atmospheric and oceanic system [Hansen, 2000; Haigh, 2001, 2007]. A prime solar quantity for the Earth’s climate is solar irradiance, which is the total solar energy flux at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. With the advent of coupled chemistry and general circulation models (GCM), the variability of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) is increasingly coming into the focus of attention of climate research due to its importance for the chemistry and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere [Haigh, 1994, 2001, 2007; Langematz et al., 2005]. Whereas the total solar irradiance (i.e. the irradiance integrated over the whole spectrum, TSI)changes by about 0.1% between solar activity minimum and maximum [Fr¨ohlich, 2006], the UV emission changes by a few percent at 200–300 nm to up to 100% around the Ly-alpha emission line near 121.6 nm [Floyd et al., 2003; Krivova et al., 2006]. The variability in the IR is comparable to or lower than the TSI variations. In the range between about 1500 and 2500 nm, i.e. in the vicinity of the atmospheric water vapour absorption bands, the variation over the solar cycle is even reversed with respect to the TSI cycle.

 

[mdn2000]

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

Various observations suggest that the Earth’s climate has always being changing. Both internal sources and external drivers contribute to this variability. The most recent strong increase of the global surface temperature appears to be rather unusual, however [Solomon et al., 2007]. Although human activity has being widely recognised to be a major contributor, the relative roles of different drivers are still not well understood and need more accurate evaluations.

The solar radiative output is the main external driver of the Earth’s coupled atmospheric and oceanic system [Hansen, 2000; Haigh, 2001, 2007]. A prime solar quantity for the Earth’s climate is solar irradiance, which is the total solar energy flux at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. With the advent of coupled chemistry and general circulation models (GCM), the variability of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) is increasingly coming into the focus of attention of climate research due to its importance for the chemistry and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere [Haigh, 1994, 2001, 2007; Langematz et al., 2005]. Whereas the total solar irradiance (i.e. the irradiance integrated over the whole spectrum, TSI)changes by about 0.1% between solar activity minimum and maximum [Fr¨ohlich, 2006], the UV emission changes by a few percent at 200–300 nm to up to 100% around the Ly-alpha emission line near 121.6 nm [Floyd et al., 2003; Krivova et al., 2006]. The variability in the IR is comparable to or lower than the TSI variations. In the range between about 1500 and 2500 nm, i.e. in the vicinity of the atmospheric water vapour absorption bands, the variation over the solar cycle is even reversed with respect to the TSI cycle.

Great cut and paste old crock, care to comment on your post. What does old crock think is relevant in old crocks "cut and paste" post.

 

[Old Rocks]

Thank you, Walleyes, this is a really good article. Notice the really nice graphs at the bottom of the article. Especially note how at all wavelengths there has been a decrease in solar output for the last ten years. A marked decrease in TSI, yet an increase in the heat in the atmospere and oceans.

Once again, thank you for the article. It well supports what the rest of the real scientists are reporting.

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

We have used this improvement to firstly update the reconstruction of the TSI since 1610. The new reconstruction shows a slightly better agreement with the PMOD composite of TSI measurements (with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.81 compared to 0.79) than the earlier version, although the two versions are still consistent with each other. We now find a value of about 1.25 W/m2 614 as our best estimate for the 11-yr averaged increase in the TSI between the end of the Maunder minimum and the end of the 20th century, compared to 1.3 W/m2 617 derived by Balmaceda et al. [2007] and Krivova et al. [2007].

We have then combined the SATIRE-T model with the empirical extension of the model to shorter wavelengths and calculated solar spectral irradiance for the last 400 years over the spectral range 115 nm to 160 μm. We required the model to fit 2 additional independent time series, namely the facu624
lar contribution to the TSI variation and the solar UV flux over the range 220–240 nm as derived with the SATIRE-S model based on KP NSO and MDI magnetograms and continuum images [Wenzler, 2005; Wenzler et al., 2006; Krivova et al., 2009a, 2010]. This allowed better constraints to be set on the model’s free parameter and put a special emphasis on the correct replication of the spectral distribution of the irradiance.

Thus the main result of this work is a reconstruction of solar total and spectral irradiance over a broad
range between 115 nm and 160 μm since 1610. This fully covers the range of interest for the state-of-the-art climate models. The data set is available online from: Data.

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

Various observations suggest that the Earth’s climate has always being changing. Both internal sources and external drivers contribute to this variability. The most recent strong increase of the global surface temperature appears to be rather unusual, however [Solomon et al., 2007]. Although human activity has being widely recognised to be a major contributor, the relative roles of different drivers are still not well understood and need more accurate evaluations.

The solar radiative output is the main external driver of the Earth’s coupled atmospheric and oceanic system [Hansen, 2000; Haigh, 2001, 2007]. A prime solar quantity for the Earth’s climate is solar irradiance, which is the total solar energy flux at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. With the advent of coupled chemistry and general circulation models (GCM), the variability of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) is increasingly coming into the focus of attention of climate research due to its importance for the chemistry and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere [Haigh, 1994, 2001, 2007; Langematz et al., 2005]. Whereas the total solar irradiance (i.e. the irradiance integrated over the whole spectrum, TSI)changes by about 0.1% between solar activity minimum and maximum [Fr¨ohlich, 2006], the UV emission changes by a few percent at 200–300 nm to up to 100% around the Ly-alpha emission line near 121.6 nm [Floyd et al., 2003; Krivova et al., 2006]. The variability in the IR is comparable to or lower than the TSI variations. In the range between about 1500 and 2500 nm, i.e. in the vicinity of the atmospheric water vapour absorption bands, the variation over the solar cycle is even reversed with respect to the TSI cycle.

Great cut and paste old crock, care to comment on your post. What does old crock think is relevant in old crocks "cut and paste" post.

Dear old dumbass mdn, that is from Walleyes article, which supports what the rest of the scientists are stating concerning global warming.

 

[mdn2000]

Various observations suggest that the Earth’s climate has always being changing.

The Scientist spent research money to come up with this fact.

 

[mdn2000]

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

Various observations suggest that the Earth’s climate has always being changing. Both internal sources and external drivers contribute to this variability. The most recent strong increase of the global surface temperature appears to be rather unusual, however [Solomon et al., 2007]. Although human activity has being widely recognised to be a major contributor, the relative roles of different drivers are still not well understood and need more accurate evaluations.

The solar radiative output is the main external driver of the Earth’s coupled atmospheric and oceanic system [Hansen, 2000; Haigh, 2001, 2007]. A prime solar quantity for the Earth’s climate is solar irradiance, which is the total solar energy flux at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. With the advent of coupled chemistry and general circulation models (GCM), the variability of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) is increasingly coming into the focus of attention of climate research due to its importance for the chemistry and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere [Haigh, 1994, 2001, 2007; Langematz et al., 2005]. Whereas the total solar irradiance (i.e. the irradiance integrated over the whole spectrum, TSI)changes by about 0.1% between solar activity minimum and maximum [Fr¨ohlich, 2006], the UV emission changes by a few percent at 200–300 nm to up to 100% around the Ly-alpha emission line near 121.6 nm [Floyd et al., 2003; Krivova et al., 2006]. The variability in the IR is comparable to or lower than the TSI variations. In the range between about 1500 and 2500 nm, i.e. in the vicinity of the atmospheric water vapour absorption bands, the variation over the solar cycle is even reversed with respect to the TSI cycle.

Great cut and paste old crock, care to comment on your post. What does old crock think is relevant in old crocks "cut and paste" post.

Dear old dumbass mdn, that is from Walleyes article, which supports what the rest of the scientists are stating concerning global warming.

Great, explain the relevant parts in laymen terms, so I can understand. Tell me how they put this all together and how it works, in your words, without a link.

 

[mdn2000]

It must be great to be a scientist, so what is it, the scientist admit to making up data, that is what reconstruction of the past is, guessing, so someone, I guess its Maunder who "reconstructed" data that does not exist and these scientist of this paper re-reconstruct the Maunder data, is that like making a copy of a copy, of a copy, of something that is missing, hoping to solve a complex problem, problem being they cannot prove man made global warming.

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

In this paper, we present a new reconstruction of solar to-
87 tal and spectral irradiance back to the Maunder minimum.
88 It is based on the SATIRE-T (Spectral And Total Irradiance
89 REconstructions for the Telescope era) model developed by
90 Krivova et al. [2007], which is modified and updated here to
91 take into account the latest observational data and theoret-
92 ical results.

 

[Old Rocks]

Look, I am a millwright, someone that works with both my hands and my head. If I have taken the time to be knowledgeable enough to understand that article, and I have, you can damned well do the same.

To put it in language that a third grader could understand, they used a model based on solar magnetic flux related to sunspot activity to create a model that estimated the TSI changes back to 1610.

 

[Old Rocks]

It must be great to be a scientist, so what is it, the scientist admit to making up data, that is what reconstruction of the past is, guessing, so someone, I guess its Maunder who "reconstructed" data that does not exist and these scientist of this paper re-reconstruct the Maunder data, is that like making a copy of a copy, of a copy, of something that is missing, hoping to solve a complex problem, problem being they cannot prove man made global warming.

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

In this paper, we present a new reconstruction of solar to-
87 tal and spectral irradiance back to the Maunder minimum.
88 It is based on the SATIRE-T (Spectral And Total Irradiance
89 REconstructions for the Telescope era) model developed by
90 Krivova et al. [2007], which is modified and updated here to
91 take into account the latest observational data and theoret-
92 ical results.

That is correct, you haven't a clue as to what is being stated. So you resort to accusations of fraud to cover the depths of your ignorance.

 

[mdn2000]

Wow, how enlightening, the scientist start with assumptions, not just any assumption, but a "Fundamental assumption".

I have not the education to argue with a scientists assumption.

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

start from the fundamental assumption

 

[mdn2000]

Gee, it looks like the scientist admit that the accuracy is hampered by the lack of data. This is why I challenge people to post the study, the scientist always cover their asses and specifically state they do not know, when you get into the meat of the study the lack of facts are pointed out by all credible scientist. So you cut and paste one line and ignore everything else that shows the data is not accurate for there is no data, that the previous model failed and is tweaked or updated, to make the theory indisputable, not to make the theory accepted fact. An indisputable theory is not fact, not even close.

http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/papers/uvmm-2col.pdf

Accurate assessment of the solar forcing on the Earth’s climate is partly hampered by a shortage of reliable and sufficiently long irradiance records

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, mdn, you silly ass, look up what theory means in scientific language. And this paper is not presenting a theory, rather it is presenting a hypothesis.

Now have a Merry Christmas.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Simply put it means that solar output(Energy going into the earth climate system is decreasing) is decreasing, but temperatures are remaining the same and a lot of scientist believe it to be increasing. Kind of weird. We're outside what normally happens... At least the data we look at says this.

 

[mdn2000]

Well, mdn, you silly ass, look up what theory means in scientific language. And this paper is not presenting a theory, rather it is presenting a hypothesis.

Now have a Merry Christmas.

These scientist are working on Global Warming, that is a theory, further, if I took the time, I can pick a dozen separate theories out of this paper.

Sorry I deviated from simply a cut and paste. Next time I will add a keyword in a bold font so you got something to google.

 

[Old Rocks]

Simply put it means that solar output(Energy going into the earth climate system is decreasing) is decreasing, but temperatures are remaining the same and a lot of scientist believe it to be increasing. Kind of weird. We're outside what normally happens... At least the data we look at says this.

That, for me, is the part that is frightening. You see, maybe the data that we still do not know about, rather than saying that it ain't that bad, will tell us that we really just don't realize how bad it truly is. Kind of like what is happening with the polar ice.