Jan '12 GOP Nomination Predictions

[JoeB131]

Here are my original predictions back on 1/3. I'm sticking to them. However swap Santorum for Perry!

SC:
(1) Gingrich - Gets a revived spirit into his campaign!
(2) Romney - Romney and Gingrich fight starts to heat up.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Santorum - 2nd straight last place, but he has nothing to lose
Result: Everyone stays in

FL:
(1) Romney - It's the economy stupid and like it or not Mitt has the edge on Newt
(2) Gingrich - A close 2nd. It has become a two horse race
(3) Paul - Another bronze metal, but he is in it to the end like the last time.
(4) Santorum - IW was a long ways back. His lack of funds and sinking in the polls provides few options
Result: Santorum stays in but no TV ads and does little campaigning!

By the end of January there is a close race between Romney and Gingrich with Paul tagging along to win the internet voting by 50 points on every debate.

I think Santorum will drop out after SC. then there will really be only Romney vs. the "anti-Romney", Newt.

Meanwhile, you have this gem-

Romney Lead 'Collapsing,' Says Gallup Editor

Gallup’s top editor told MSNBC this morning that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s lead in the polls is “collapsing” across the nation, citing polling numbers that have changed dramatically over the last few days.

Frank Newport, Gallup’s editor in chief, appeared on the MSNBC’s “Jansing & Co.” to share the results of Gallup’s national tracking poll. The gap between Romney and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is quickly closing, according to that poll.

“We’ll see this gap closing more,” said Newport. “Romney was up 23 points over Newt Gingrich. Now it will be down about 10 points. So clearly, things are collapsing.”

Two things at play here. The "Anti-Romneys" are down to two now. Santorum and Gingrich. Again, 70% of the GOP really doesn't like Romney and doesn't want him. They might not be thrilled with Newt, but he's the only game in town, or soon will be.

The other thing that has happened is what SHOULD have happened 4 months ago when we were too busy talking about Gardisil, whether Bachmann submitted to her husband, and whether Hermanator was cheating on his wife or not. People are actually- FINALLY- starting to look at who Mitt Romney is, and they don't like what they see.