Jan '12 GOP Nomination Predictions

[GHook93]

IW:
(1) Romney - Shocks everyone and wins the state. He wins on electability and economic experience.
(2) Santorum - Wins the social conservative vote. He is the Huckabee of 2012.
(3) Paul - RP screamed about getting press. He finally got it, but its on the racist newsletter, his stance on Civil Rights Act and his bonehead foreign policy.
(4) Perry - Came in 3rd in the social vote
(5) Gingrich - He is proof attack ads work
(6) Bachmann - This isn't the straw-poll
(7) Huntsman - Hope NH is better!
Results: Bachmann bows out.

NH:
(1) Romney - He has been 20 pt
(2) Gingrich - Shocks the people with somewhat of a revival
(3) Huntsman - All those eggs in NH didn't pay off enough
(4) Perry - 2nd bad showing was enough.
(5) Paul - Paul fans are starting to get mad
(6) Santorum - The IW high has waried off
Results: Huntsman bows out (not like he really ever ran)

SC:
(1) Gingrich - Gets a revived spirit into his campaign!
(2) Romney - Romney and Gingrich fight starts to heat up.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Perry - The Texas Gov packs up and goes to TX
(5) Santorum - 2nd straight last place, but he has nothing to lose
Result: Perry drops out

FL:
(1) Romney - It's the economy stupid and like it or not Mitt has the edge on Newt
(2) Gingrich - A close 2nd. It has become a two horse race
(3) Paul - Another bronze metal, but he is in it to the end like the last time.
(4) Santorum - IW was a long ways back
Result: Santorum bows out

By the end of January there is a close race between Romney and Gingrich with Paul tagging along to win the internet voting by 50 points on every debate.

 

[francoHFW]

Jeb Bush zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

 

[JoeB131]

IW:
(1) Romney - Shocks everyone and wins the state. He wins on electability and economic experience.
(2) Santorum - Wins the social conservative vote. He is the Huckabee of 2012.
(3) Paul - RP screamed about getting press. He finally got it, but its on the racist newsletter, his stance on Civil Rights Act and his bonehead foreign policy.
(4) Perry - Came in 3rd in the social vote
(5) Gingrich - He is proof attack ads work
(6) Bachmann - This isn't the straw-poll
(7) Huntsman - Hope NH is better!
Results: Bachmann bows out.

NH:
(1) Romney - He has been 20 pt
(2) Gingrich - Shocks the people with somewhat of a revival
(3) Huntsman - All those eggs in NH didn't pay off enough
(4) Perry - 2nd bad showing was enough.
(5) Paul - Paul fans are starting to get mad
(6) Santorum - The IW high has waried off
Results: Huntsman bows out (not like he really ever ran)

SC:
(1) Gingrich - Gets a revived spirit into his campaign!
(2) Romney - Romney and Gingrich fight starts to heat up.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Perry - The Texas Gov packs up and goes to TX
(5) Santorum - 2nd straight last place, but he has nothing to lose
Result: Perry drops out

FL:
(1) Romney - It's the economy stupid and like it or not Mitt has the edge on Newt
(2) Gingrich - A close 2nd. It has become a two horse race
(3) Paul - Another bronze metal, but he is in it to the end like the last time.
(4) Santorum - IW was a long ways back
Result: Santorum bows out

By the end of January there is a close race between Romney and Gingrich with Paul tagging along to win the internet voting by 50 points on every debate.

I can't see Newt continuing if he doesn't do well tonight and fourth place isn't doing well.

McCain got fourth place and still won, but he won NH and SC.

I suspect Mittens will win, but there will be no real enthusiasm for him. Probably a strong third party for conservatives to vent their spleens and prevent him from ever really moving to the center, which is what he really, really wants to do.

I've said it before. Mittens is a sacrificial lamb, he's not supposed to win. The Republicans don't want to beat Obama, he's the best fundraiser they've ever had.

 

[uptownlivin90]

Iowa:
Paul wins, Romney in close second.

New Hampshire:
Romney wins, Paul comes in a pretty far second, followed by Santorum or Huntsman, then Bachmann.

South Carolina:
Bachmann or Santorum wins, Romney and Paul comes in second or third, the evangelical vote will consolidate around either Bachmann or Santorum here.

Florida:
It's a three man/woman race: Bachmann/Santorum, Romney, Paul. Toss Up.

 

[Seawytch]

(3) Paul - RP screamed about getting press. He finally got it, but its on the racist newsletter, his stance on Civil Rights Act and his bonehead foreign policy.

LOL...so true. I thought the same thing the other day..."I wonder how the Paul Heads like all the press now."

With Press coverage comes scrutiny...something Ron Paul doesn't hold up to very well.

I've heard rumors of some folks trying to sell Jeb Bush as the Americans Elect candidate.

 

[GHook93]

IW:
(1) Romney - Shocks everyone and wins the state. He wins on electability and economic experience.
(2) Santorum - Wins the social conservative vote. He is the Huckabee of 2012.
(3) Paul - RP screamed about getting press. He finally got it, but its on the racist newsletter, his stance on Civil Rights Act and his bonehead foreign policy.
(4) Perry - Came in 3rd in the social vote
(5) Gingrich - He is proof attack ads work
(6) Bachmann - This isn't the straw-poll
(7) Huntsman - Hope NH is better!
Results: Bachmann bows out.

Nearly called it to the T. Just flip Perry and Gingrich and I had them all correct.

 

[Avatar4321]

I think Newt, Santorum, and Perry are all likely to split the anti-Romney vote in SC. You may end up seeing Romney come out on top there. Not making any predictions this early though. Who knows what NH will do next week.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

"Are The Republican Candidates All Crazy?"

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.

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[GHook93]

I think Newt, Santorum, and Perry are all likely to split the anti-Romney vote in SC. You may end up seeing Romney come out on top there. Not making any predictions this early though. Who knows what NH will do next week.

I don't believe there is the anti-Romney vote. It's a media hypothesis to keep people interested. I think Romney won because the economy is the big issue and he is the man with the private sector experience!

 

[JoeB131]

I think Newt, Santorum, and Perry are all likely to split the anti-Romney vote in SC. You may end up seeing Romney come out on top there. Not making any predictions this early though. Who knows what NH will do next week.

So again, you think it's smart for the GOP to nominate a guy that 75% of the party really doesn't want?

 

[Old Rocks]

IW:
(1) Romney - Shocks everyone and wins the state. He wins on electability and economic experience.
(2) Santorum - Wins the social conservative vote. He is the Huckabee of 2012.
(3) Paul - RP screamed about getting press. He finally got it, but its on the racist newsletter, his stance on Civil Rights Act and his bonehead foreign policy.
(4) Perry - Came in 3rd in the social vote
(5) Gingrich - He is proof attack ads work
(6) Bachmann - This isn't the straw-poll
(7) Huntsman - Hope NH is better!
Results: Bachmann bows out.

NH:
(1) Romney - He has been 20 pt
(2) Gingrich - Shocks the people with somewhat of a revival
(3) Huntsman - All those eggs in NH didn't pay off enough
(4) Perry - 2nd bad showing was enough.
(5) Paul - Paul fans are starting to get mad
(6) Santorum - The IW high has waried off
Results: Huntsman bows out (not like he really ever ran)

SC:
(1) Gingrich - Gets a revived spirit into his campaign!
(2) Romney - Romney and Gingrich fight starts to heat up.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Perry - The Texas Gov packs up and goes to TX
(5) Santorum - 2nd straight last place, but he has nothing to lose
Result: Perry drops out

FL:
(1) Romney - It's the economy stupid and like it or not Mitt has the edge on Newt
(2) Gingrich - A close 2nd. It has become a two horse race
(3) Paul - Another bronze metal, but he is in it to the end like the last time.
(4) Santorum - IW was a long ways back
Result: Santorum bows out

By the end of January there is a close race between Romney and Gingrich with Paul tagging along to win the internet voting by 50 points on every debate.

Not bad. Gingrinch and Perry switched places, but the rest was on the money.

 

[Old Rocks]

I think Newt, Santorum, and Perry are all likely to split the anti-Romney vote in SC. You may end up seeing Romney come out on top there. Not making any predictions this early though. Who knows what NH will do next week.

So again, you think it's smart for the GOP to nominate a guy that 75% of the party really doesn't want?

From the point of view of a Democrat. Yes

Problem is, who else do you have? The only other candidates that seem half sane are Gingrinch and Huntsman. And Gingrinch has more dirty laundry than a whorehouse. Huntsman? He has stated his honest views. He's out.

 

[IndependntLogic]

IW:
(1) Romney - Shocks everyone and wins the state. He wins on electability and economic experience.
(2) Santorum - Wins the social conservative vote. He is the Huckabee of 2012.
(3) Paul - RP screamed about getting press. He finally got it, but its on the racist newsletter, his stance on Civil Rights Act and his bonehead foreign policy.
(4) Perry - Came in 3rd in the social vote
(5) Gingrich - He is proof attack ads work
(6) Bachmann - This isn't the straw-poll
(7) Huntsman - Hope NH is better!
Results: Bachmann bows out.

NH:
(1) Romney - He has been 20 pt
(2) Gingrich - Shocks the people with somewhat of a revival
(3) Huntsman - All those eggs in NH didn't pay off enough
(4) Perry - 2nd bad showing was enough.
(5) Paul - Paul fans are starting to get mad
(6) Santorum - The IW high has waried off
Results: Huntsman bows out (not like he really ever ran)

SC:
(1) Gingrich - Gets a revived spirit into his campaign!
(2) Romney - Romney and Gingrich fight starts to heat up.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Perry - The Texas Gov packs up and goes to TX
(5) Santorum - 2nd straight last place, but he has nothing to lose
Result: Perry drops out

FL:
(1) Romney - It's the economy stupid and like it or not Mitt has the edge on Newt
(2) Gingrich - A close 2nd. It has become a two horse race
(3) Paul - Another bronze metal, but he is in it to the end like the last time.
(4) Santorum - IW was a long ways back
Result: Santorum bows out

By the end of January there is a close race between Romney and Gingrich with Paul tagging along to win the internet voting by 50 points on every debate.

This is simple. Romney wins the nomination. If the economy stays bad, he wins. If it improves enough, Obama wins. Not rocket science.

 

[GHook93]

NH:
(1) Romney - He has been 20 pt
(2) Gingrich - Shocks the people with somewhat of a revival!
(3) Huntsman - All those eggs in NH didn't pay off enough
(4) Paul - Paul fans start to come up with conspiracy theories why he came in 4th
(5) Santorum - The IW high has waried off
(6) Perry - He talks tough, but everyone can see he is crying inside! Like a teenage girl that wasn't asked to the dance!
Results: Huntsman bows out (not like he really ever ran)

SC:

(1) Romney - Romney and Gingrich fight starts to heat up.
(2) Gingrich - Gets a revived spirit into his campaign!
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Santorum - 2nd straight last place, but he has nothing to lose
(5) Perry - The Texas Gov packs up and goes to TX
Result: Perry drops out and Gingrich gets desperate with no golds yet.

FL:
(1) Romney - It's the economy stupid and like it or not Mitt has the edge on everyone there. With his 4th straight win he is looking good.
(2) Paul - RP gets a silver metal and his backer jizz in their pants
(3) Gingrich - A falls to 3rd in a state he was looking good in a few months back.
(4) Santorum - IW was a long ways back
Result: Santorum bows out and Gingrich talks about Super Tuesday

Romney, Paul and Gingrich head to Super Tuesday!

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I think Newt, Santorum, and Perry are all likely to split the anti-Romney vote in SC. You may end up seeing Romney come out on top there. Not making any predictions this early though. Who knows what NH will do next week.

So again, you think it's smart for the GOP to nominate a guy that 75% of the party really doesn't want?

From the point of view of a Democrat. Yes

Problem is, who else do you have? The only other candidates that seem half sane are Gingrinch and Huntsman. And Gingrinch has more dirty laundry than a whorehouse. Huntsman? He has stated his honest views. He's out.

There's also the fact that GOP voters tend to show up to vote against Democrats. A guy that 75% of the GOP doesn't want will still get a fairly large chunk of the GOP support in the general.

So at the end of the day the GOP leadership picks the guy the moderates are most likely to vote for, and that's Romney.

Side note: this is why Social Cons and Fiscal Cons haven't been a force in years. Count your blessings though. The alternative is the DNC where fridge groups will actually boycott a candidate, which means they can frequently hijack the platform.

 

[IndependntLogic]

So again, you think it's smart for the GOP to nominate a guy that 75% of the party really doesn't want?

From the point of view of a Democrat. Yes

Problem is, who else do you have? The only other candidates that seem half sane are Gingrinch and Huntsman. And Gingrinch has more dirty laundry than a whorehouse. Huntsman? He has stated his honest views. He's out.

There's also the fact that GOP voters tend to show up to vote against Democrats. A guy that 75% of the GOP doesn't want will still get a fairly large chunk of the GOP support in the general.

So at the end of the day the GOP leadership picks the guy the moderates are most likely to vote for, and that's Romney.

Side note: this is why Social Cons and Fiscal Cons haven't been a force in years. Count your blessings though. The alternative is the DNC where fridge groups will actually boycott a candidate, which means they can frequently hijack the platform.

Just an aside: The post from Agent Kay on your signature is actually a line delivered by Tommey Lee Jones in the movie "Men in Black". Great line tho.

 

[GHook93]

SC:
(1) Romney - Romney is coming off two big wins, the attacks are resinating and people thing he is the man for the economy, not too mention he has a double digit lead in the polls(2) Gingrich - Gets a revival into his campaign
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Santorum - Dropping back to irrelevant
(5) Perry - No chance at a revival
(6) Huntsman - Why are you still in the race?
Result: Perry drops out, the rest push on

FL:
(1) Romney - Romney is coming off a big win in SC, the attacks still resinating and the economy means more in FL than most of the country, not too mention he has a double digit lead in the polls here. Money is drying up for the rest of the pack
(2) Gingrich - Another silver metal heading into super Tuesday. Not bad.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal.
(4) Huntsman - Not last that is a step up for him.
(5) Santorum - What happened in IW is forgotten.
Result: All stay in the race.

 

[GHook93]

SC:
(1) Romney - Romney is coming off two big wins, the attacks aren't resinating and people think he is the man for the economy, not too mention he is still lead in the polls by 6-7 points
(2) Gingrich - Gets a little revival into his campaign
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Santorum - Dropping back to irrelevant where he should be
(5) Perry - No chance at a revival
Result: Perry drops out, the rest push on

FL:
(1) Romney - Romney is coming off a big win in SC, the attacks still aren't resinating and the economy means more in FL than most of the country, not too mention he has a double digit lead in the polls here. Money is drying up for the rest of the pack (expect Paul) and Romney is being viewed as the best candidate to beat Obama.
(2) Gingrich - Another silver metal heading into super Tuesday. Not bad, but not what he needs either.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal.
(4) Santorum - What happened in IW is forgotten.
Result: All stay in the race and all the non-Romney candidates are hoping for a big super Tuesday to turn things around.

 

[KSoze]

SC
1)Romney
2)Paul
3)Santorum
4)Gingrich
5)Perry
Perry drops out

Florida
1)Romney
2)Gingrich
3)Paul
4)Santorum

 

[GHook93]

Here are my original predictions back on 1/3. I'm sticking to them. However swap Santorum for Perry!

SC:
(1) Gingrich - Gets a revived spirit into his campaign!
(2) Romney - Romney and Gingrich fight starts to heat up.
(3) Paul - Paul fans get excited for another bronze metal
(4) Santorum - 2nd straight last place, but he has nothing to lose
Result: Everyone stays in

FL:
(1) Romney - It's the economy stupid and like it or not Mitt has the edge on Newt
(2) Gingrich - A close 2nd. It has become a two horse race
(3) Paul - Another bronze metal, but he is in it to the end like the last time.
(4) Santorum - IW was a long ways back. His lack of funds and sinking in the polls provides few options
Result: Santorum stays in but no TV ads and does little campaigning!

By the end of January there is a close race between Romney and Gingrich with Paul tagging along to win the internet voting by 50 points on every debate.