I've looked at various lists about which state is a top five default Risk

[caddo kid]

IL is in its third decade of vendor debt default . CA went into technical default under the Governator with no interest paid on IOUs. Those are the top two. NY also makes everybody's list. The NE coast beyond VA with the exception of NH and possibly PA, DE and ME may also make the exceptions list. KY is the only Red state that makes the list. The only other left coast state that is in trouble appears to be WA

In the southeast LA is in trouble as usual but otherwise it's OK in Dixie.

I have reached the conclusion that the daisy chain of defaults will start in the Northeast. But where, when and why escapes me. What's your theory about which will be the first state to go into default and will there be more of bail-out or a criminal investigation?

First thing: this belongs in the ECONOMY sub forum.

Second: LA is NOT in the southeast, it is 'deep south.'

Third: It would be great if you were not too lazy to spell out a few things.

 

[danielpalos]

California is scheduled to raise our minimum wage. Higher paid labor pays more in taxes and create more in demand.

its only 50 cents danny,it aint going to do much....

it is scheduled to go up to fifteen dollars an hour, eventually.

a while from now....and wait until all those above them minimum wage people ask for their raises...

higher paid labor pays more in taxes and creates more in demand.

we may be able to actually afford a "green new deal".

 

[Aldo Raine]

I will tell you who is at the top of the heap, the state of Ontario...we're finished...

You are calling for a global mess?

No, just a provincial one in Ontario which ill impact Canada greatly.

We grew at .4 of 1% last year. We're in trouble.

Indeed you are. The debates and revisions looks like we may be north of 4% by the time of the 2020 election.

Had not heard that one, not knocking it wondering if you have a link to those kind of numbers?

Not hard numbers but CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ and Fed chair testimony include 4+% within the range of possibility If:

a laundry list of conditions are met.

The big maybe is that Job openings being larger than the number job seekers has never been recorded before even in time of war.

Thank you sir, will look those up. Never heard numbers that high on the most optimistic side going forward.

 

[william the wie]

That's true because there is literally no data about the economic territory we are in. The nearest things to comparables are the German and Japanese miracles after WWII. Therefore the 4% +/- FED/Treasury/DOL numbers are not printed in the initial GDP report but are usually found in the third or fourth revisions of a GDP/qtr when the reporting period is 60 days or more in the past. Whether the cause is fear of being dismissed as Trumpateers, lack of a model (Brian Arthur's "Increasing Returns and Path dependency" for example is used by venture capitalists but not government or academic economists.) or what I have no idea.