It’s the Sun, stupid

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Oddball, May 25, 2010.

  1. Oddball
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    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

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  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Over the past 35 years the Total Solar Iradiance has had a minor decline. Yet the warming has been accelerating the whole time. Every decade warmer than the last.

    What you state is stupid, son.


    Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?

    It's the sun

    "Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer. The data suggests solar activity is influencing the global climate causing the world to get warmer." (BBC)

    What the science says...
    In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions.


    As supplier of almost all the energy in Earth's climate, the sun has a strong influence on climate. A comparison of sun and climate over the past 1150 years found temperatures closely match solar activity (Usoskin 2005). However, after 1975, temperatures rose while solar activity showed little to no long-term trend. This led the study to conclude, "...during these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source."

    In fact, a number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, over the same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been moving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influence in recent decades (Lockwood 2008).


    Figure 1: Annual global temperature change (thin light red) with 11 year moving average of temperature (thick dark red). Temperature from NASA GISS. Annual Total Solar Irradiance (thin light blue) with 11 year moving average of TSI (thick dark blue). TSI from 1880 to 1978 from Solanki. TSI from 1979 to 2009 from PMOD.

    Other studies on solar influence on climate
    This conclusion is confirmed by many studies finding that while the sun contributed to warming in the early 20th Century, it has had little contribution (most likely negative) in the last few decades:

    Erlykin 2009: "We deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to solar activity is 14% of the observed global warming."
    Benestad 2009: "Our analysis shows that the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980."
    Lockwood 2008: "It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2? confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%."
    Lockwood 2008: "The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings."
    Ammann 2007: "Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century."
    Lockwood 2007: "The observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanism is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified."
     
  3. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Hey old fraud you keep ducking my question. Dr. Jones says that there has been no global warming since 1998...so is he a liar now? Answer the question you big chicken:lol:
     
  4. elvis
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    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

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    do you know what a sample size is? and I'm not talking about what chris puts in your mouth.
     
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  5. The Infidel
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    The Infidel EVIL CONSERVATIVE

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    It doesnt matter what the facts are.... envir-idiots will always keep [​IMG]
     
  6. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    It is true that the sun solar output has declined since 1950, but only slowly and it's the same thing as the fact that June is not the warmest summer month, but late July and August is. Why??? Because there is a surplus of solar energy making it to the surface to that leaving the earth. That is why we slowly warmed after the 1950s, but now the sun has went very very quit indeed, but our oceans have so much energy that they're stabilizing our planet for the time being. But if solar output don't go into higher levels within the next 5-10 years, I would expect some cooling to start. Dalton, possibly little ice age if it can last 75-120 years. The little ice age was a lot more then just one big minimum, I remember seeing at least 3 within 500-700 years that occurred helping each other force the temperature of our planet down. So most of the time the effects of solar forcing is not very fast, but some times it can be. I believe the big ice ages have to do with this, but also the shape of our orbit.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2010

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