It won’t work, Rick

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Matthew, Mar 22, 2012.

  1. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    It won’t work, Rick
    It won’t work, Rick - NYPOST.com

    Santorum strategy no longer adds up

    Last Updated: 12:56 AM, March 22, 2012

    Posted: 11:27 PM, March 21, 2012


    Rick Santorum surely knows he has no way to win the Republican race after his thumping in Illinois on Tuesday night. After his commanding win there, Mitt Romney not only has more than twice the delegates (560 to 246), but a third again as many votes nationwide as Santorum (4.1 million to 2.8 million).

    Newt Gingrich knows he can’t win the nomination; that’s why he was in DC last weekend looking at cherry blossoms with a Secret Service detail surrounding him.

    The race is over for them. Romney has beaten them. Of the 34 contests thus far, Romney has won 20, and lost a 21st (Iowa) to Santorum by only 34 votes.

    AP

    Just another word for nothing left to lose? Santorum looks pretty lonely at a campaign event yesterday.

    Yet Santorum and Gingrich continue to run, forcing Romney to spend money to defeat them he might more usefully spend to defeat President Obama. Why?

    Simple: They’re trying to induce an unprecedented party crisis — which is supposed to be an opportunity for them and the GOP. But their reasoning is cracked, to say the least.

    They’re hoping to deny Romney an outright majority of delegates (he needs 1,144) when the primaries end in June. The goal is to create a general Republican panic and uproar that will result in Romney failing to win on the first ballot at the GOP convention in Tampa. At which point, under the rules, Romney’s delegates will be freed to vote for whomever they choose.

    Of course, so would Santorum’s and Gingrich’s delegates. And should such a “contested convention” take place, it is almost certain that neither one of them would actually end up as the nominee.

    Why? First, Romney’s near majority of delegates would have no reason to switch allegiances. Second, not to put too fine a point on it, Santorum and Gingrich are this year’s losers.

    Six weeks ago, when talk of a contested convention first bubbled up, there was a logic to the Santorum convention strategy: If Romney got weaker and weaker and Santorum got stronger and stronger, you could see Mitt fading through the summer after the primaries and Rick gaining momentum into Tampa.

    Thus Santorum would arrive at the convention like an insurgent general with his Tea Party troops behind him, deny Romney a first-ballot win and then force everyone to surrender to his epoch-altering grass-roots support.

    But that scenario didn’t play out, to put it mildly. Romney may not be a particularly strong front-runner, but Santorum hasn’t turned out to be much of a dark horse, either.

    Gingrich? A little-known party rule may take him out altogether. Word flew around GOP circles on Tuesday night that the only way someone’s name can be placed into nomination is if he wins a plurality of the delegates in five states. Gingrich has two, and is unlikely to get more. (Ron Paul has none.)

    Think all this through, and this is what you get: Gingrich and Santorum are trying to ensure that Romney doesn’t win the nomination . . . while having almost no chance, either of them, to get it.

    So what then? A magical figure descends from the heavens, one of the people who took a look at the 2012 election and decided he (or she) couldn’t actually win and therefore didn’t run?

    Fun! But where would such a person find a ready-made campaign organization to take on Barack Obama in the seven weeks until Election Day — with local organizations county by county and neighborhood by neighborhood, SuperPACs at the ready. Oh, and a vetted vice-presidential nominee as well?

    Any such scenario involving an unprepared candidate and running mate would likely be a world-historical disaster, far worse for the GOP than even a weak nominee, as the consequences further down the ticket would be parlous, as well.

    So, if things go the way Gingrich and Santorum hope they might, the result will be a presidential candidate who is neither Newt nor Rick — an untested national figure who’ll lose to Obama in a landslide that might help bring about a Democratic takeover of the House and prevent a GOP takeover of the Senate.

    Or they could choose Option 2: Get out, let Romney work at bringing the GOP together (and stop wasting money battling them) — and be credited with helping give the GOP a fighting chance at victory in the fall.

    Third Option: They can just go on, because they can’t bring themselves to get out.

    Logic calls for Option Two, but figure on Option Three.
     
  2. Big Black Dog
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    Big Black Dog Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Romney gives me the creeps. He's nothing but a rich little boy who has nothing better to do with his time than to play in the Oval Office for either 4 or 8 years. I don't like him. He reminds me of a gangster every time I see him. There was a very weak field of candidates for the GOP nomination. It's the only reason he has done as well as he has. There are far better candidates than him that aren't even running.
     
  3. theunbubba
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    theunbubba Member

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    Yeah yeah yeah you wish. Santorum has a comfortable lead in Lousiana and should win it handily.
     
  4. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Won't matter...As there are only 1,238 outstanding delegates remaining, santorum needs 892 of them! Over 70% to win the nomination.

    1048 delegates so far rewarded
    So Santorum has near 252 delegates right now/1048 delegate=24% of the delegates so far! He needs to start winning like he did in Kananas everywhere! That's Not going to happen in New york where Romney will likely get over 50% "If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 34 delegates." New York Republican Delegation 2012

    Romney could pull out of New york 75 delegates to 20 for Santorum! Why, just look at the map of the congressional districs within new york city...Only about a dozen are within reach for Santorum. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6c/NY-districts-108.JPG
    Pa: Pennsylvania Republican Delegation 2012 and the congressional distric map! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/PA-districts-108.JPG Romney is going to win some of those philly and pitts districs just like he won the ones around Chicogo that made his delegate blow out possible.

    Both Pa and New york are like Ill in the way they pick there delegates. :eusa_shifty: Kind of sucks for Santorum.

    Washinton DC(19), Delware(17), New Jersey, Utah(40) are all winner take all! All Romney!

    Indiana Indiana Republican Delegation 2012 of course Santorum could do pretty good here, but I doubt good enough! File:IN-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Good because the districs are spread out.

    Nc, maybe good or bad...But not enough. North Carolina Republican Delegation 2012

    Califorina fucking sucks for Santorum! California Republican Delegation 2012 Easily 35 of the states 53 congressional districs lay within LA and San franfuckingsicko! No fucking way is Santorum going to win them either. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/CA-districts-108.JPG

    Texas
    Thursday 7 June - Saturday 9 June 2012: The Texas Republican State Convention convenes in Fort Worth where the National Convention delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings. Rule 38. Sections 6, 7, 8, 9]

    108 district delegates are elected: 3 from each of the state's 36 congressional districts.
    44 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 34 bonus delegates) are elected.
    Delegates are elected by Presidential Preference from the Congressional districts in which their candidate received the highest percentage of the vote, providing the candidate received 20% or more of the vote, until the candidates delegate allotment is fulfilled. Then, the process is repeated for the 2nd highest vote getter. Once all Congressional district delegates are selected, the At-Large delegates are selected.

    In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Texas's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

    Texas Republican Delegation 2012

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/TX-districts-109.JPG

    Well, Texas is kind of like a mixture of Tenn, New york, ill all in one. Nasty mix for Santorum as most of the districs are in romney strong holds. URBAN area's and cities!

    Wv- West Virginia Republican Delegation 2012 Likely to be nice to Santorum.

    Kenturky, Ark are favorable for Santorum...These with Neb are Santorums best chance at getting another Kanasas!
    New mexico, Oregon=Romney.
    Montana is a toss up!

    Almost forgot! Wisconsin...
    Tuesday 3 April 2012: 42 of Wisconsin's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Wisconsin Presidential Primary.

    24 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 8 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 3.]
    18 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 5 bonus delegates plus 3 party leaders) are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide. [Republican Party of Wisconsin Constitution Article X Section 4.] http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/WI-districts-108.JPG

    Romney will likely win the 1, 4, 5, 6 districs at least. Very liberal part of That state...Up state Santorum will do fairly good.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2012

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