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I predict that one day, the Earf will be consumed in an immense fiery supernova.
See how easy that is?
1989: Isaac Asimov on Climate Change Climate Denial Crock of the Week
Hmmm...... Weren't all the scientists supposed to have been talking about an ice age in 1977?
I have admired Asimov for years, but I long ago realized that he was not perfect. He lost me when he started talking about sea level rising 200 ft Even Al Gore didn't go that far off base.
...The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today and were sustained at those levels global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland...
Willfull ignorance. Such a wonderful thing.
I have admired Asimov for years, but I long ago realized that he was not perfect. He lost me when he started talking about sea level rising 200 ft Even Al Gore didn't go that far off base.
I believe Asimov was referring to a state where the CO2 levels are higher thanthey currently are. His speculations were not without foundation.
Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years - (AAAS) Science - http://atripati.bol.ucla.edu/23.pdf
Our system is still equilibrating to the current levels of CO2. Even if we could hold the atmospheric ratios to their current levels, this level of temp rise and sea level rise could be expected to result from current conditions. At the current rates of increase, CO2 levels will double preindustrial ratios within a couple of decades and may triple their current levels by 2100. Complete melting of the surface icecaps and sheets would raise sea levels by ~70-80meters (not counting thermal expansion), or somewhere between 230-260'. Which puts Asimov's considerations in good standing....The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today and were sustained at those levels global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland...
1989: Isaac Asimov on Climate Change Climate Denial Crock of the Week
Hmmm...... Weren't all the scientists supposed to have been talking about an ice age in 1977?
Funny things is, the most serious projections do not have the ice caps melting, therefore thee is no chance of the sea levels rising that far...
...As we have seen this winter, higher CO2 levels contribute to more water vapor, and more precipitation in coastal areas.
The ice caps, on the other hand, melt all the time. In years where there is less snowfall they do not grow back as fast as the ice melts. In years with more snowfall they grow back faster than the ice melts. Most of the models I have seen show this fluctuating over time, but none of them predict that the ice caps will completely disappear, no matter how hot it gets. That is because the warmer temps generally result in more snowfall in the Arctic regions.
By the way, he also argued that cholesterol, being the only substance that the body actually makes itself, should be consumed in higher than recommended amounts. Like I said, he was human, and wrong occasionally.
The most serious projections for when?
by 2100? The average global surface temp could go up to 100 and it would take a millenia or more to completely melt all surface ice. If we could stop all further increases in atmospheric CO2 and hold the ratios steady where they are at right now, it might take a couple of centuries for the conditions to equilibrate to the current level of CO2, but at the end of that time we would be looking at global average temps that were around 8 degrees F higher than now, and sea levels that are around a hundred feet higher than they are today. We may only see a couple of meters of sea level rise by 2100, but that isn't the end of the story, even if we stopped emitting all CO2 today. Temp increases and sea level rises are inevitable regardless of any action we take regarding our influence on climate.
precipitation increases aren't limited to costal areas, and shifting jet stream patterns mean that increasing precipitation isn't the only concern.
While this general trend is in balance (or relatively so) minor increases and decreases in temp result in much of what you describe. As this balance is exceeded, however, and temp trends increase that cycle falls apart (due moreso to warming winter temp averages), the geologic record demonstrates the conditions that result in an ice-free planet. We aren't there yet but it is on the horizon, and unfortunately may already be scripted, unless we take a lot more drastic actions than anyone wants to undertake.
Certainly, no one is right about everything, much depends upon one's qualifications to assess evidences and understandings, and even within the field of one's life's devotion, occassional errors and misunderstandings occur. In this particular instance however, Asimov's considerations of climate are matched and supported by the mainstream scientific understandings and evidences.
Hey Q, want to link to any of that mainstream science that you claim views what Asimov stated as alarmist?
...Satellite measurements show sea-level is rising at 3.4 millimeters per year since these records began in 1993. This is 80% faster than the best estimate of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for the same time period.
Accounting for ice-sheet mass loss, sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of ~2m based on new ice-sheet understanding.
Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 20 centimeters (IPCC AR4). Since 1993, sea level has been accurately measured globally from satellites. Before that time, the data come from tide gauges at coastal stations around the world. Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated. Statistical analysis reveals that the rate of rise is closely correlated with temperature: the warmer it gets, the
faster sea level rises (Rahmstorf 2007).
Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence of global warming for two main reasons: ocean water expands as it heats up, and additional water flows into the oceans from the ice that melts on land. For the period 1961-2003, thermal expansion contributed ~40% to the observed sea level rise, while shrinking mountain glaciers and ice sheets have contributed ~60% (Domingues et al. 2008).
level has risen faster than expected (Rahmstorf et al. 2007), see Figure 16. The average rate of rise for 1993-2008 as measured from satellite is 3.4 millimeters per year (Cazenave et al. 2008), while the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) projected a best estimate of 1.9 millimeters per year for the same period. Actual rise has thus been 80% faster than projected by models. (Note that the more recent models of the 2007 IPCC report still project essentially the same sea level rise as those of the TAR, to within 10%.)
(...)
Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate. Some recent estimates of future rise are compiled in Figure 17. These estimates highlight the fact that unchecked global warming is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island states...
Really, Q, there is a lot of data much more recent than this.
Warning effect on sea level unsure
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change covers the question of how global warming could effect sea levels around the globe in Chapter 7 of it's book Climate Change 1995. A new report, which would update the 1995 book is due in 2001.
5.5.2.2 Sea Level Change during the Last Decade from Satellite Altimetry - AR4 WGI Chapter 5: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level
Since 1992, global mean sea level can be computed at 10-day intervals by averaging the altimetric measurements from the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason satellites over the area of coverage (66°S to 66°N) (Nerem and Mitchum, 2001). Each 10-day estimate of global mean sea level has an accuracy of approximately 5 mm. Numerous papers on the altimetry results (see Cazenave and Nerem, 2004, for a review) show a current rate of sea level rise of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr1 over 1993 to 2003 (Cazenave and Nerem, 2004; Leuliette et al., 2004; Figure 5.14). A significant fraction of the 3 mm yr1 rate of change has been shown to arise from changes in the Southern Ocean (Cabanes et al., 2001
The Copenhagen Diagnosis - http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf
pg -38 Global SeaLevel
...Satellite measurements show sea-level is rising at 3.4 millimeters per year since these records began in 1993. This is 80% faster than the best estimate of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for the same time period.
Accounting for ice-sheet mass loss, sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of ~2m based on new ice-sheet understanding.
Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 20 centimeters (IPCC AR4). Since 1993, sea level has been accurately measured globally from satellites. Before that time, the data come from tide gauges at coastal stations around the world. Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated. Statistical analysis reveals that the rate of rise is closely correlated with temperature: the warmer it gets, the
faster sea level rises (Rahmstorf 2007).
Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence of global warming for two main reasons: ocean water expands as it heats up, and additional water flows into the oceans from the ice that melts on land. For the period 1961-2003, thermal expansion contributed ~40% to the observed sea level rise, while shrinking mountain glaciers and ice sheets have contributed ~60% (Domingues et al. 2008).
level has risen faster than expected (Rahmstorf et al. 2007), see Figure 16. The average rate of rise for 1993-2008 as measured from satellite is 3.4 millimeters per year (Cazenave et al. 2008), while the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) projected a best estimate of 1.9 millimeters per year for the same period. Actual rise has thus been 80% faster than projected by models. (Note that the more recent models of the 2007 IPCC report still project essentially the same sea level rise as those of the TAR, to within 10%.)
(...)
Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate. Some recent estimates of future rise are compiled in Figure 17. These estimates highlight the fact that unchecked global warming is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island states...
The Copenhagen Diagnosis - http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf
pg -38 Global SeaLevel
...Satellite measurements show sea-level is rising at 3.4 millimeters per year since these records began in 1993. This is 80% faster than the best estimate of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for the same time period.
Accounting for ice-sheet mass loss, sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of ~2m based on new ice-sheet understanding.
Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 20 centimeters (IPCC AR4). Since 1993, sea level has been accurately measured globally from satellites. Before that time, the data come from tide gauges at coastal stations around the world. Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated. Statistical analysis reveals that the rate of rise is closely correlated with temperature: the warmer it gets, the
faster sea level rises (Rahmstorf 2007).
Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence of global warming for two main reasons: ocean water expands as it heats up, and additional water flows into the oceans from the ice that melts on land. For the period 1961-2003, thermal expansion contributed ~40% to the observed sea level rise, while shrinking mountain glaciers and ice sheets have contributed ~60% (Domingues et al. 2008).
level has risen faster than expected (Rahmstorf et al. 2007), see Figure 16. The average rate of rise for 1993-2008 as measured from satellite is 3.4 millimeters per year (Cazenave et al. 2008), while the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) projected a best estimate of 1.9 millimeters per year for the same period. Actual rise has thus been 80% faster than projected by models. (Note that the more recent models of the 2007 IPCC report still project essentially the same sea level rise as those of the TAR, to within 10%.)
(...)
Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate. Some recent estimates of future rise are compiled in Figure 17. These estimates highlight the fact that unchecked global warming is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island states...
At 100 centimeters a century, which is far above even the rate the most ridiculous predictions show, we will have 6000 years to deal with the problem before it rises 200 feet. Believe it or not, we will fix it before that happens.
You really should do some basic math before you try to make me look stupid and uninformed.
That is why mainstream scientist think that type of thinking is alarmist, because idiots like you are incapable of thinking far enough ahead to see how stupid it really is.
