Is this market a bear trap?

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by william the wie, Oct 14, 2010.

  1. william the wie
    Offline

    william the wie Gold Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2009
    Messages:
    7,295
    Thanks Received:
    675
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Ratings:
    +1,614
    The Dow is about 50% above its dividend yield valuation of 6700.

    The market is poised for a panic out of equities and into commodities.

    Gold is below its inflation adjusted trend line of $3000/oz based on its 1/1/33 price.

    But haven't all of these conditions been redlining since 1998 or even earlier? So why should the market return to reality right now? Why shouldn't the sugar high last another week, month, year or decade?
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  2. iamwhatiseem
    Offline

    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2010
    Messages:
    14,827
    Thanks Received:
    3,114
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +6,118
    I haven't put mine back in....it is critically too high right now.
    Right now it is as if every tid bit of good news, no matter how small drives up another 100 points in a day.
    Things are a little better...there have been some good signs since the first of August...but absolutely nothing that could be responsible for driving the markets as high as they are..it cannot continue. if we don't have an adjustment now - it will be a much larger one later, and we could be right back into another slide.
     
  3. Sallow
    Offline

    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    56,535
    Thanks Received:
    6,132
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +7,394
    I was in at the beginning of the year and just liqudated to do renovations on my apartment.
    I bought ford, american steel, citibank and a couple of others that I can't remember right now.

    Made a small fortune.

    And many companies are reporting some pretty good earnings. If you do the research and trend for a little bit before getting in...might be a good time. But use money you can afford to lose..
     
  4. iamwhatiseem
    Offline

    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2010
    Messages:
    14,827
    Thanks Received:
    3,114
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +6,118
    I am in the neighbourhood of pushing 35% return since this all began.
     
  5. Sallow
    Offline

    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    56,535
    Thanks Received:
    6,132
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +7,394
    There is ALOT of construction going on. Those are probably the sorts of companies to check out.
     
  6. Sallow
    Offline

    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    56,535
    Thanks Received:
    6,132
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +7,394
    Grats.
     
  7. LordBrownTrout
    Online

    LordBrownTrout Gold Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    15,504
    Thanks Received:
    2,962
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    South Texas
    Ratings:
    +6,360
    I'm seeing commodities heading north, precious metals as well. I was leery at the end of 2007 and pulled my safe stocks out. Still haven't put anything back in.
     
  8. Flopper
    Offline

    Flopper Gold Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Messages:
    15,224
    Thanks Received:
    2,698
    Trophy Points:
    260
    Location:
    Washington
    Ratings:
    +5,300
    A lot of that construction is the 800 billion in stimulus money the Democrats have pumped into the economy. I have to wonder what's going to happen when the money dries up.
     
  9. Toro
    Offline

    Toro Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2005
    Messages:
    50,767
    Thanks Received:
    11,056
    Trophy Points:
    2,030
    Location:
    The Big Bend via Riderville
    Ratings:
    +25,102
    I believe we are in a trading range that will play out over several years.

    But I could change my mind if I think I'm wrong.
     
  10. Paulie
    Offline

    Paulie Platinum Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2007
    Messages:
    31,551
    Thanks Received:
    4,854
    Trophy Points:
    1,130
    Ratings:
    +15,397
    :lol:

    This is the Toro disclaimer that should be attached to all Toro investment opinions.
     

Share This Page