Is the GOP finished?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by mikedennis10, Dec 5, 2008.

  1. mikedennis10
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    mikedennis10 Rookie

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    In 1969, Kevin P. Phillips wrote a book called The Emerging Republican Majority, which explained the rationale of a nation which he believed would move firmly to the right. His analysis proved correct as the last forty years have only seen three out of the last ten elections being won by Democrats. From Nixon to Reagan to Bush Jr, the Republicans have held a steady majority in the country and seemingly could do no wrong among their constituency. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were the only Democrats who could break through their iron grip on the White House and Capitol Hill. The Democratic presidents before this time were aplenty, but left-wing politics were perceived differently, particularly before the cultural changes of the sixties.

    With the rise of these social and cultural issues into mainstream politics, and the image of the Democrats as being soft on Communism both fueled a visceral reaction on the part of Southerners and rural Americans into the embrace of conservative and Republican politics. A clumsy alliance was made through adopting socially conservative issues with their newly acquired electorate, which were formerly Democratic voters. The right, before the transformations of the sixties was primarily a party of big business and New England politicos, thoroughly disconnected from small town America.

    With our most recent election of Barack Obama to the presidency of the United States, many on the right are reeling at it's implications. Erratic, conspiratorial paranoia exude from the fringes and exclamations about the situational disadvantages that the Republicans were in are ruling the day in the mainstream. As if it's only a temporary predicament brought about by an ailing economy and a very unpopular president in George Bush. None of these are wholly accountable for the change, it's much more straightforward as to why a Democratic era is on the horizon and the end of Republican domination is in sight. The combination of a more open-minded and accepting culture in the youth, along with immigrant populations which vote heavily to the left have reached a tipping point over the old Republican majority. It's unlikely that conservative politics will make inroads among these groups, as the rising inertia of their politics will reinforce it's own ideology.

    As Kevin P. Phillips wrote in 1969 of the nation's political future, one may write in 2009 of an emerging Democratic majority. The body of voters that make up the Democratic base are only going to grow. We may see a reversal of roles, with the Democrats holding the torch for the next forty years. It's an open question as to how the right will react and seek to restore their ascendancy, but considering how they've shrewdly marketed themselves in the past, they may not be down for long.
     
  2. Angel Heart
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    Angel Heart Conservative Hippie

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  3. Sidestreamer
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    Sidestreamer BANNED

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    I anticipate the Democrats remaining in power for at least eight full years if they know how to pull out of Iraq, but that and the economy are the two keys. If we're still in Iraq by 2012 and experiencing the losses we've been experiencing, we just might see a powerful third party as well as a Republican rebound. One major terrorist attack like another 9/11 is all it will take though to revive the Republicans the same way the Democrats came in on a souring prospect in Operation Iraqi Freedom.
     
  4. Steerpike
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    Steerpike VIP Member

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    The GOP was in worse shape in the 1970s. Whenever one party has a big win you get people (usually in a self-interested fashion) proclaiming the demise of the other. The pendulum will swing back. The speed at which it swings will be determined by how well Obama and the Democratic Congress do.
     
  5. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    Well, the GOP has to adapt for sure, especially to urban areas being a larger percentage of the electorate, and immigration continuing onwards.

    But I do recall that a short three or four years ago the popular thinking was that the republicans had a strong cohesive machine and that everyone in their tent agreed with everyone else, and that the democrats were in disarray (since it is the party of immigrants and such and so has a diversity of agendas.) Rove politics were all the rage.

    Separately I think that the internet (organization, small donors) will make a viable third party candidate not just possible but likely in the next cycle or two.
     
  6. Munin
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    Munin VIP Member

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    If Sarah Palin is going to call the shots, then I think the GOP will be finished
     
  7. Red Dawn
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    Red Dawn Senior Member

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    Bush voters were proclaiming the Democratic Party dead, only four years ago.

    There's no way the GOP is going to crater. They may become a regional party of southern christian white men for a time. But, they'll figure out a way to claw their way back. The biggest mistake they ever made was wholeheartedly nominating George Dumbya Bush twice, invading Iraq, and making guns and abortion the core of their platform.

    At some point, they're going to have to deal with the reality of demographics. And that doesn't mean some cosmetic changes. They're going to have to become less rightwing, if they want to win in the future. I don't think they're stupid enough to cling to "creation science", abortion, and denying global climate change forever.
     
  8. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    You know, I think with one bad economic report after another, and each one saying "worst since 2001, no, since 1992, no, since 1974 ...." etc, we are apparently getting worse and worse economically here, and the dems just have to turn it around (no small task) and will have their winning platform no prob for the next few cycles.
     
  9. Skull Pilot
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    Skull Pilot Platinum Member

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    I hope the GOP dies a painful death. Maybe then we'll get some real change
     
  10. midcan5
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    midcan5 liberal / progressive

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    I look at the republican ascendancy as a political constituency anomaly, consider its primary appeal was anti new deal, great society, welfare, civil rights, environmentalism, secularism, and humanitarianism. Its appeal grew after the sixties and the departure from Vietnam. This constituency brings together social darwinists, the over religious, and trickle down fans galore.

    Nothing makes people happier than seeing another's plight as worse than theirs or bombing heathens to hell, add to that bedroom checks on gays, and the love of the unborn, moral high mindedness for all except the living, add a touch of racism over civil rights which combines two unifying dislikes, and throw in school prayer, some nationalism, tax magic, and voila, a magic potion. So long as they remain attached to these ideas they will lose.
     

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