william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,402
- 280
The case for:
Obama is electing Republicans at a furious rate.
Obamacare and Frank-Dodd are accelerating capital and talent flight from high tax (blue) states to low tax (red) states. And better yet vice versa for the poor.
Given that the high tax states are flirting with default or in the case of IL are in default of unbonded debt the D base may be destroyed before he leaves office. The probability of the Rs pushing through mandatory voter ID and gun rights within the next presidential term approaches unity no matter who wins.
The case against:
The next president faces the demographic cliff of the 1958 baby boom peak going into early retirement. (The 1958 census numbers are for the then 48 states, the 1960 numbers are for the current 50 states so they are slightly larger but the current 50 states peaked in 1958.)
2017 is the worst year for the presidential cycle and second worst year of the census cycle.
Better yet 2020 is the worst year of the census cycle making the next presidential term a Jimmy Carter special.
So, what say ye: Yea or Nay?
Obama is electing Republicans at a furious rate.
Obamacare and Frank-Dodd are accelerating capital and talent flight from high tax (blue) states to low tax (red) states. And better yet vice versa for the poor.
Given that the high tax states are flirting with default or in the case of IL are in default of unbonded debt the D base may be destroyed before he leaves office. The probability of the Rs pushing through mandatory voter ID and gun rights within the next presidential term approaches unity no matter who wins.
The case against:
The next president faces the demographic cliff of the 1958 baby boom peak going into early retirement. (The 1958 census numbers are for the then 48 states, the 1960 numbers are for the current 50 states so they are slightly larger but the current 50 states peaked in 1958.)
2017 is the worst year for the presidential cycle and second worst year of the census cycle.
Better yet 2020 is the worst year of the census cycle making the next presidential term a Jimmy Carter special.
So, what say ye: Yea or Nay?
