Is Missouri "In Play?"

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by nodoginnafight, Oct 1, 2012.

  1. nodoginnafight
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    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

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    Rassmussen's 9/11 poll of 500 "likely voters" (the latest poll on RCP) shows Romney with a 3 point lead. Considering Rassmussen's historical 4 point Republican bias, the fact that Obama has gained ground in battleground states across the board since 9/11, and the downward tug on Republican turnout in Missouri as the result of Akin and his rift with the GOP, is Obama in a position to steal this one?

    My gut tells me no, but the numbers and circumstances don't appear very firm for Romney.

    What's your take?
     
  2. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    It would be if Obama would commit to campaigning there. The same could be said about Arizona. But they have a strategy, it is working very well. So I don't see them changing it at this point.
     
  3. nodoginnafight
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    Good point, but wouldn't it be smart to make Romney play a little defense? Maybe their guts are saying the same things to them that mine is saying to me - I just don't see it happening for them in the end in Missouri. (And really, polls showing Obama leading North Carolina are shocking me. My gut tells me N.C. will go Romney when all is said and done.
     
  4. AceRothstein
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    If polling continues to swing towards Obama you might see the Obama campaign dropping some cash in AZ, MO and SC. I doubt you'll see a visit to any of those states from him though.
     
  5. nodoginnafight
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    I'd think the visits would be cheaper than The TV ads. I don't see S.C. though. I think he'll be lucky to get N.C.
     
  6. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    If it were closer yes. In this environment where the President is ahead so widely, so often, and by so much in large EV states...coupled with the feckless Romney offense and his murky messaging, why make him play defense when he can't field a competent offense?
     
  7. nodoginnafight
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    Well complacency won't win it for anyone imho.
    If a rock really is fracturing wouldn't you WANT to apply a hammer and a chisel?
     
  8. candycorn
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    Yes;
    IF...
    You have unlimited hammers

    IF...
    You have all the time in the world to hit the chisel over and again

    IF...
    There isn't easier rocks to chisel at in richer regions

    IF...
    You can't get the same result without chiseling at all
     
  9. nodoginnafight
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    I think the Obama camp will try to chisel away ... it's just a question of where. And yeah, it's a balance of resources and trying to apply them at the exact right spot. I happen to think Missouri could be a fault line in the Romney campaign. Some Obama folks have openly floated the Arizona idea. I just think the stars line up better in Missouri - but the changing demographics in Arizona could be exploitable for the Obama camp.
     
  10. candycorn
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    That I would agree with; Missouri before Arizona. The Senate seat is more "win-able" in Missouri than AZ as well.
     

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