Is Missouri "In Play?"

[nodoginnafight]

Rassmussen's 9/11 poll of 500 "likely voters" (the latest poll on RCP) shows Romney with a 3 point lead. Considering Rassmussen's historical 4 point Republican bias, the fact that Obama has gained ground in battleground states across the board since 9/11, and the downward tug on Republican turnout in Missouri as the result of Akin and his rift with the GOP, is Obama in a position to steal this one?

My gut tells me no, but the numbers and circumstances don't appear very firm for Romney.

What's your take?

 

[candycorn]

Rassmussen's 9/11 poll of 500 "likely voters" (the latest poll on RCP) shows Romney with a 3 point lead. Considering Rassmussen's historical 4 point Republican bias, the fact that Obama has gained ground in battleground states across the board since 9/11, and the downward tug on Republican turnout in Missouri as the result of Akin and his rift with the GOP, is Obama in a position to steal this one?

My gut tells me no, but the numbers and circumstances don't appear very firm for Romney.

What's your take?

It would be if Obama would commit to campaigning there. The same could be said about Arizona. But they have a strategy, it is working very well. So I don't see them changing it at this point.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Rassmussen's 9/11 poll of 500 "likely voters" (the latest poll on RCP) shows Romney with a 3 point lead. Considering Rassmussen's historical 4 point Republican bias, the fact that Obama has gained ground in battleground states across the board since 9/11, and the downward tug on Republican turnout in Missouri as the result of Akin and his rift with the GOP, is Obama in a position to steal this one?

My gut tells me no, but the numbers and circumstances don't appear very firm for Romney.

What's your take?

It would be if Obama would commit to campaigning there. The same could be said about Arizona. But they have a strategy, it is working very well. So I don't see them changing it at this point.

Good point, but wouldn't it be smart to make Romney play a little defense? Maybe their guts are saying the same things to them that mine is saying to me - I just don't see it happening for them in the end in Missouri. (And really, polls showing Obama leading North Carolina are shocking me. My gut tells me N.C. will go Romney when all is said and done.

 

[AceRothstein]

If polling continues to swing towards Obama you might see the Obama campaign dropping some cash in AZ, MO and SC. I doubt you'll see a visit to any of those states from him though.

 

[nodoginnafight]

If polling continues to swing towards Obama you might see the Obama campaign dropping some cash in AZ, MO and SC. I doubt you'll see a visit to any of those states from him though.

I'd think the visits would be cheaper than The TV ads. I don't see S.C. though. I think he'll be lucky to get N.C.

 

[candycorn]

Rassmussen's 9/11 poll of 500 "likely voters" (the latest poll on RCP) shows Romney with a 3 point lead. Considering Rassmussen's historical 4 point Republican bias, the fact that Obama has gained ground in battleground states across the board since 9/11, and the downward tug on Republican turnout in Missouri as the result of Akin and his rift with the GOP, is Obama in a position to steal this one?

My gut tells me no, but the numbers and circumstances don't appear very firm for Romney.

What's your take?

It would be if Obama would commit to campaigning there. The same could be said about Arizona. But they have a strategy, it is working very well. So I don't see them changing it at this point.

Good point, but wouldn't it be smart to make Romney play a little defense? Maybe their guts are saying the same things to them that mine is saying to me - I just don't see it happening for them in the end in Missouri. (And really, polls showing Obama leading North Carolina are shocking me. My gut tells me N.C. will go Romney when all is said and done.

If it were closer yes. In this environment where the President is ahead so widely, so often, and by so much in large EV states...coupled with the feckless Romney offense and his murky messaging, why make him play defense when he can't field a competent offense?

 

[nodoginnafight]

It would be if Obama would commit to campaigning there. The same could be said about Arizona. But they have a strategy, it is working very well. So I don't see them changing it at this point.

Good point, but wouldn't it be smart to make Romney play a little defense? Maybe their guts are saying the same things to them that mine is saying to me - I just don't see it happening for them in the end in Missouri. (And really, polls showing Obama leading North Carolina are shocking me. My gut tells me N.C. will go Romney when all is said and done.

If it were closer yes. In this environment where the President is ahead so widely, so often, and by so much in large EV states...coupled with the feckless Romney offense and his murky messaging, why make him play defense when he can't field a competent offense?

Well complacency won't win it for anyone imho.
If a rock really is fracturing wouldn't you WANT to apply a hammer and a chisel?

 

[candycorn]

Good point, but wouldn't it be smart to make Romney play a little defense? Maybe their guts are saying the same things to them that mine is saying to me - I just don't see it happening for them in the end in Missouri. (And really, polls showing Obama leading North Carolina are shocking me. My gut tells me N.C. will go Romney when all is said and done.

If it were closer yes. In this environment where the President is ahead so widely, so often, and by so much in large EV states...coupled with the feckless Romney offense and his murky messaging, why make him play defense when he can't field a competent offense?

Well complacency won't win it for anyone imho.
If a rock really is fracturing wouldn't you WANT to apply a hammer and a chisel?

Yes;
IF...
You have unlimited hammers

IF...
You have all the time in the world to hit the chisel over and again

IF...
There isn't easier rocks to chisel at in richer regions

IF...
You can't get the same result without chiseling at all

 

[nodoginnafight]

If it were closer yes. In this environment where the President is ahead so widely, so often, and by so much in large EV states...coupled with the feckless Romney offense and his murky messaging, why make him play defense when he can't field a competent offense?

Well complacency won't win it for anyone imho.
If a rock really is fracturing wouldn't you WANT to apply a hammer and a chisel?

Yes;
IF...
You have unlimited hammers

IF...
You have all the time in the world to hit the chisel over and again

IF...
There isn't easier rocks to chisel at in richer regions

IF...
You can't get the same result without chiseling at all

I think the Obama camp will try to chisel away ... it's just a question of where. And yeah, it's a balance of resources and trying to apply them at the exact right spot. I happen to think Missouri could be a fault line in the Romney campaign. Some Obama folks have openly floated the Arizona idea. I just think the stars line up better in Missouri - but the changing demographics in Arizona could be exploitable for the Obama camp.

 

[candycorn]

Well complacency won't win it for anyone imho.
If a rock really is fracturing wouldn't you WANT to apply a hammer and a chisel?

Yes;
IF...
You have unlimited hammers

IF...
You have all the time in the world to hit the chisel over and again

IF...
There isn't easier rocks to chisel at in richer regions

IF...
You can't get the same result without chiseling at all

I think the Obama camp will try to chisel away ... it's just a question of where. And yeah, it's a balance of resources and trying to apply them at the exact right spot. I happen to think Missouri could be a fault line in the Romney campaign. Some Obama folks have openly floated the Arizona idea. I just think the stars line up better in Missouri - but the changing demographics in Arizona could be exploitable for the Obama camp.

That I would agree with; Missouri before Arizona. The Senate seat is more "win-able" in Missouri than AZ as well.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Yes;
IF...
You have unlimited hammers

IF...
You have all the time in the world to hit the chisel over and again

IF...
There isn't easier rocks to chisel at in richer regions

IF...
You can't get the same result without chiseling at all

I think the Obama camp will try to chisel away ... it's just a question of where. And yeah, it's a balance of resources and trying to apply them at the exact right spot. I happen to think Missouri could be a fault line in the Romney campaign. Some Obama folks have openly floated the Arizona idea. I just think the stars line up better in Missouri - but the changing demographics in Arizona could be exploitable for the Obama camp.

That I would agree with; Missouri before Arizona. The Senate seat is more "win-able" in Missouri than AZ as well.

That's what I'm thinking. If Obama makes a bit of a play in Missouri, it would have to help the undercard. And since the GOP isn't putting any money or effort into Akin, it could mean a lot of GOP leaners, who have no interest in Romney, might just be staying home.

 

[Missourian]

There'll be a blizzard in hell before Obama wins Missouri.

 

[candycorn]

I think the Obama camp will try to chisel away ... it's just a question of where. And yeah, it's a balance of resources and trying to apply them at the exact right spot. I happen to think Missouri could be a fault line in the Romney campaign. Some Obama folks have openly floated the Arizona idea. I just think the stars line up better in Missouri - but the changing demographics in Arizona could be exploitable for the Obama camp.

That I would agree with; Missouri before Arizona. The Senate seat is more "win-able" in Missouri than AZ as well.

That's what I'm thinking. If Obama makes a bit of a play in Missouri, it would have to help the undercard. And since the GOP isn't putting any money or effort into Akin, it could mean a lot of GOP leaners, who have no interest in Romney, might just be staying home.

Are you saying he may win it by default (he being the President)?

 

[JoeB131]

Rassmussen's 9/11 poll of 500 "likely voters" (the latest poll on RCP) shows Romney with a 3 point lead. Considering Rassmussen's historical 4 point Republican bias, the fact that Obama has gained ground in battleground states across the board since 9/11, and the downward tug on Republican turnout in Missouri as the result of Akin and his rift with the GOP, is Obama in a position to steal this one?

My gut tells me no, but the numbers and circumstances don't appear very firm for Romney.

What's your take?

The only reason why I think we might be surprised by Missouri is that they really don't like the LDS down there. Romney has lost Missouri every time he's gone for it in the primaries, and let's not forget, Missouri issued a "extermination" order against the Mormons in the 1830's that wasn't repealled until the 1970's.

But I don't see Obama dedicating a lot of resources to Missouri right now, probably because he knows he already has 269 EV's outside the margin of error according to RCP, and he just needs one more state. Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada all look much more promising.

 

[nodoginnafight]

I guess it's "officially" in play now. We ask America just released a poll showing Romney +3 in Missouri prompting RCP to move it into the "toss up" category.

 

[nodoginnafight]

That I would agree with; Missouri before Arizona. The Senate seat is more "win-able" in Missouri than AZ as well.

That's what I'm thinking. If Obama makes a bit of a play in Missouri, it would have to help the undercard. And since the GOP isn't putting any money or effort into Akin, it could mean a lot of GOP leaners, who have no interest in Romney, might just be staying home.

Are you saying he may win it by default (he being the President)?

Win Missouri by default? Nah, I wouldn't say that. I'm just saying the undercard isn't gonna lend too much support to Romney. Although Akin seems to be keeping it very competitive even without the support of the GOP establishment.

 

[JakeStarkey]

No.

Is Missouri in play

 

[nodoginnafight]

Although my gut tells me mizzou and NC will go romney, I would not be shocked to see either (or both) wind up in Obama's column.

 

[Old Rocks]

If either Ryan or Romney make a repeat of a series of misstatements like those of a couple of weeks ago, it would not surprise me to see the President take some of the Romney leaning states. The general voting population is beginning to get a feeling of fecklessness from the Romney campaign.

 

[Polk]

Romney will carry Missouri.